International Review of Economics & Finance最新文献

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Digital accounts and employment in Taiwan's banking sector: Disruption or realignment? 台湾银行业的数位账户与就业：颠覆或重整？

IF 7.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Economics & Finance

Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.105454

Yi-Shuan Chen

This study examines how digitalization, proxied by the adoption of digital accounts, affects labor demand in Taiwan's banking sector. Using bank-level panel data from 2016 to 2023 and a two-step System-GMM framework, we analyze both absolute employment levels and banks' relative employment shares within the financial industry. The results show that growth in digital accounts is robustly associated with reductions in total and frontline employment, consistent with labor-saving digital substitution. In contrast, banks' relative employment shares display strong persistence and do not respond significantly to digital-account penetration once dynamic employment inertia is taken into account. This distinction helps reconcile economically meaningful employment reductions with limited short-run labor reallocation across banks. Heterogeneity analyses indicate that employment contractions are concentrated among lower-educated workers, while employment of highly educated staff remains relatively stable, implying compositional upgrading of the workforce. These effects are more pronounced among large banks and those affiliated with financial holding companies. Additional analyses suggest that improvements in lending-related productivity represent an important channel linking digitalization to labor reductions. Evidence from difference-in-differences designs, employment growth regressions, and instrumental-variable approaches corroborates the baseline findings. Overall, the results suggest that digital banking reshapes labor demand primarily through gradual contractions in absolute employment rather than immediate shifts in relative employment shares, with important implications for workforce planning and regulatory policy during ongoing digital transformation in banking.

本研究探讨以数位账户为代表的数位化，如何影响台湾银行业的劳工需求。利用2016年至2023年的银行层面面板数据和两步系统- gmm框架，我们分析了绝对就业水平和银行在金融行业中的相对就业份额。结果表明，数字账户的增长与总就业人数和一线就业人数的减少密切相关，这与节省劳动力的数字替代相一致。相比之下，一旦考虑到动态就业惯性，银行的相对就业份额表现出很强的持久性，并且对数字账户渗透率没有显著响应。这种区别有助于协调具有经济意义的就业减少与银行间有限的短期劳动力再分配。异质性分析表明，就业收缩集中在受教育程度较低的工人中，而受教育程度较高的员工的就业保持相对稳定，这意味着劳动力的构成升级。这种影响在大型银行和与金融控股公司有关联的银行中更为明显。其他分析表明，贷款相关生产率的提高是将数字化与减少劳动力联系起来的重要渠道。来自差异中差异设计、就业增长回归和工具变量方法的证据证实了基线研究结果。总体而言，研究结果表明，数字银行主要通过绝对就业的逐步收缩而不是相对就业份额的立即变化来重塑劳动力需求，这对正在进行的银行业数字化转型中的劳动力规划和监管政策具有重要意义。

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引用次数: 0

Resilience, tail-risk and connectedness mechanism: An inter-industry perspective 弹性、尾部风险和连通性机制：行业间视角

IF 7.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Economics & Finance

Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.105409

Jiefei Huang, Zishuo Wang, Xia Zhao, Jiani Zuo

While existing research has extensively examined inter-industry risk spillovers, it has largely neglected resilience connectedness across industries, overlooking a critical dimension of systemic stability. This paper uses the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model to quantify industry-level resilience in China by assessing responses to multiple shocks, then constructs resilience networks using the DY spillover index and tail-risk networks through the LASSO-quantile regression to compare their transmission structure, and finally employs the Quadratic Assignment Procedure (QAP) model and input–output linkages to analyze the spatial driving factors of these two interconnectedness mechanisms. The results indicate heterogeneity in industry resilience across shock origins. Static analyses reveal that resilience networks center on real-economy industries, whereas tail-risk network centers on finance industries. Dynamic results show that total resilience connectedness leads tail-risk connectedness, suggesting its utility as a forward-looking early warning indicator. The QAP estimates indicate that resilience tends to propagate upstream along supply chains, while tail risk flows downstream. Overall, this study provides a dual perspective of inter-industry resilience and risk connectedness, offering new evidence for risk management and policy design in complex economic environments.

虽然现有的研究广泛地考察了行业间的风险溢出，但它在很大程度上忽视了行业间的弹性连通性，忽视了系统稳定性的一个关键维度。本文采用时变参数向量自回归（TVP-VAR）模型，通过评估多重冲击的响应来量化中国行业层面的弹性，并通过lasso -分位数回归构建弹性网络和尾部风险网络，比较它们的传导结构。最后利用二次分配过程（QAP）模型和投入产出联系分析了这两种互联机制的空间驱动因素。结果表明，不同冲击来源的行业弹性存在异质性。静态分析表明，弹性网络以实体经济行业为中心，尾部风险网络以金融行业为中心。动态结果表明，总弹性连通性优于尾部风险连通性，表明其作为前瞻性预警指标的效用。QAP估计表明，弹性倾向于沿供应链向上游传播，而尾部风险则向下游流动。总体而言，本研究提供了行业间弹性和风险连通性的双重视角，为复杂经济环境下的风险管理和政策设计提供了新的证据。

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引用次数: 0

Impact of green finance pilot reforms on corporate carbon emissions: A study based on evolutionary game theory and firm-level evidence 绿色金融试点改革对企业碳排放的影响：基于演化博弈论和企业层面证据的研究

IF 7.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Economics & Finance

Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.105449

Shiqi Cao, Jianqiu Liu

As global efforts to combat climate change intensify, China's Green Finance Reform and Innovation Pilot (GFRIP) policy has assumed an increasingly significant role in guiding firms toward low-carbon transitions and advancing sustainable development. Focusing on Chinese listed firms over 2006-2023, this study develops a dynamic evolutionary game model involving the government, firms, and regulatory authorities to analyze the evolution of behavioral behaviors during policy implementation and evaluate GFRIP's emission reduction effect. We find that GFRIP significantly reduces corporate carbon emissions. Mechanism analysis shows that this effect is driven by strengthened media supervision, which operates primarily through positive information, and through easing financing constraints and improving corporate environmental governance. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that GFRIP's emission reduction impact is stronger in the northern region, high-pollution firms, and firms with low environmental uncertainty. Overall, this study provides firm-level evidence on GFRIP's environmental governance effect, and offers a theoretical foundation and practical insights for the low-carbon transformation of and policy optimization for firms.

随着全球应对气候变化努力的加强，中国的绿色金融改革创新试点政策在引导企业向低碳转型和促进可持续发展方面发挥着越来越重要的作用。本文以2006-2023年中国上市公司为研究对象，建立了政府、企业和监管机构参与的动态演化博弈模型，分析了政策实施过程中企业行为的演化，并对gtrip的减排效果进行了评价。我们发现gtrip显著降低了企业的碳排放。机制分析表明，加强媒体监督主要通过正面信息发挥作用，并通过缓解融资约束和改善公司环境治理发挥作用。异质性分析表明，在北方地区、高污染企业和环境不确定性较低的企业中，gtrip的减排效果更强。总体而言，本研究为gtrip环境治理效应提供了企业层面的证据，为企业的低碳转型和政策优化提供了理论基础和实践见解。

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引用次数: 0

Supply Chain Risk and Precautionary Liquidity: How Customer Concentration Shapes Corporate Cash Holdings in China 供应链风险与预防性流动性：客户集中度对中国企业现金持有量的影响

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Economics & Finance

Pub Date : 2026-05-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.105399

Yuhan Li , Mengjie Zhang

This paper investigates how customer concentration shapes corporate cash holdings using Chinese manufacturing firms from 2007-2020. We find that higher customer concentration significantly increases cash holdings, supporting the risk amplification hypothesis rooted in precautionary savings. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that this effect is stronger when major customers are stable and when boards are larger, yet weaker with greater relationship-specific investments. Mechanism tests identify three key channels: major customer quality, inventory turnover dynamics, and cash flow volatility. These findings demonstrate that customer concentration operates through supply chain partner characteristics that impose liquidity pressures, operational efficiency gains that necessitate financial buffers, and heightened cash flow uncertainty, highlighting supply-chain dependence as a critical driver of liquidity management in emerging markets.

本文以2007-2020年中国制造业企业为研究对象，考察客户集中度对企业现金持有量的影响。我们发现，较高的客户集中度显著增加现金持有量，支持植根于预防性储蓄的风险放大假说。异质性分析显示，当主要客户稳定、董事会规模较大时，这种效应更强，但当关系特定投资较大时，这种效应较弱。机制测试确定了三个关键渠道：主要客户质量、库存周转动态和现金流波动。这些发现表明，客户集中度通过供应链合作伙伴的特征发挥作用，这些特征会施加流动性压力，提高运营效率，需要财务缓冲，并增加现金流的不确定性，突出了供应链依赖是新兴市场流动性管理的关键驱动因素。

引用次数: 0

Risk aversion heterogeneity and the equity term structure 风险厌恶异质性与股权期限结构

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Economics & Finance

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.105118

Hamilton Galindo Gil

We explore the ability of a two-agent model with heterogeneous risk aversion to replicate key characteristics of the equity term structure. The model not only reproduces standard aggregate asset-pricing facts—such as procyclical interest rates and price–dividend ratios, and countercyclical stock volatility—but also several salient features specific to equity yields. In particular, it generates downward-sloping and countercyclical volatility, a downward-sloping equity yield curve during recessions, and countercyclical equity yield levels. Risk-aversion heterogeneity affects equity yields by shaping the stochastic discount factor and, consequently, the quantity of risk embedded in dividend strips. This mechanism is both state- and maturity-dependent: it is especially pronounced during recessions and for long-maturity claims. Overall, these findings highlight the central role of risk-aversion heterogeneity in understanding the behavior of the equity term structure.

我们探讨了具有异质风险厌恶的双代理模型复制股权期限结构关键特征的能力。该模型不仅再现了标准的总资产定价事实——如顺周期利率和价格股息比，以及逆周期股票波动——而且还再现了股票收益率的几个显著特征。特别是，它会产生向下倾斜和反周期波动，在衰退期间产生向下倾斜的股票收益率曲线，以及反周期股票收益率水平。风险厌恶异质性通过塑造随机贴现因子，从而影响股息条中嵌入的风险数量，从而影响股票收益率。这种机制既依赖于状态，也依赖于期限：在衰退期间和长期债权中尤为明显。总的来说，这些发现强调了风险厌恶异质性在理解股权期限结构行为中的核心作用。

引用次数: 0

Migration diversity and economic complexity in developing countries: Direct and indirect effects through growth, innovation, and human capital 发展中国家的移民多样性和经济复杂性：通过增长、创新和人力资本产生的直接和间接影响

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Economics & Finance

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.105131

Eric Ayang , Mohamadou Sani , Bruno Ndouyang Balguessam

Economic complexity reflects a country's ability to combine diverse forms of knowledge to create more sophisticated goods. At the same time, developing countries are experiencing increasing migration flows from more heterogeneous origins. However, it remains unclear whether this growing diversity enhances the productive capacities of these countries. This study investigates whether migratory diversity constitutes a productive factor that enhances economic complexity. While the literature extensively examines economic complexity, limited attention has been paid to the role of migration diversity. Focusing on developing countries, the paper identifies the mechanisms through which migration diversity influences economic complexity. This study analyses the direct and indirect effects of migration diversity on economic complexity in 74 developing countries over the period 1995-2023, using a Structural Equation Model (SEM) with FGLS and IV-2SLS estimates for robustness. The results indicate that migration diversity has a positive and statistically significant direct effect on economic complexity. Furthermore, mediation analysis reveals indirect effects operating through economic growth, innovation, and human capital. These results suggest that migration contributes to structural transformation rather than simply increasing production. This supports capability-based development theories, which emphasise that the heterogeneous recombination of knowledge promotes productive diversification. The results also show that migrant diversity only becomes productive when economies possess sufficient absorptive capacity to utilise migrants' skills. This has policy implications: recognition of foreign qualifications, matching skills to specific sectors, and complementary training programmes are necessary to convert diversity into productive capacity.

经济复杂性反映了一个国家结合不同形式的知识创造更复杂产品的能力。与此同时，发展中国家正在经历来自异质来源的越来越多的移徙。然而，尚不清楚这种日益增长的多样性是否提高了这些国家的生产能力。本研究探讨了移民多样性是否构成提高经济复杂性的生产因素。虽然文献广泛地研究了经济复杂性，但对移民多样性的作用的关注有限。本文以发展中国家为重点，确定了移民多样性影响经济复杂性的机制。本研究使用结构方程模型（SEM）分析了1995-2023年间74个发展中国家移民多样性对经济复杂性的直接和间接影响，并采用FGLS和IV-2SLS估计鲁棒性。结果表明，移民多样性对经济复杂性具有显著的正向直接影响。此外，中介分析还揭示了经济增长、创新和人力资本的间接效应。这些结果表明，移民有助于结构转型，而不仅仅是增加生产。这支持了以能力为基础的发展理论，该理论强调知识的异质重组促进了生产多样化。研究结果还表明，只有当经济体拥有充分的吸收能力来利用移民的技能时，移民多样性才会产生成效。这对政策有影响：必须承认外国资格，使技能与特定部门相匹配，并提供补充培训方案，才能将多样性转化为生产能力。

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引用次数: 0

Blind imitation or rational decision-making? The impact of generative artificial intelligence on corporate investment herd behavior 盲目模仿还是理性决策？生成式人工智能对企业投资羊群行为的影响

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Economics & Finance

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.105139

Yongxiang Wang , Zhanhong Wu , Jun Zhang

Generative artificial intelligence, as an emerging technology, is transforming corporate decision-making processes, particularly in investment decisions. While existing research highlights its potential to improve decision efficiency, its impact on corporate investment herd behavior remains underexplored. Using panel data from non-financial listed companies in China's A-share market from 2017 to 2024, this study examines how generative AI affects corporate investment herd behavior and its heterogeneity across industries and firm types. The results show that generative AI significantly reduces herd behavior in corporate investment decisions and enhances decision-making independence. Mechanism analysis indicates that this effect operates through improved investment decision quality, reduced agency costs, and enhanced interaction between firms and investors. Heterogeneity analysis further shows that the effect is stronger in non-state-owned enterprises and high-tech industries, while it is weaker in non-high-tech industries and state-owned enterprises. These findings provide firm-level evidence on the role of generative AI in shaping corporate investment behavior and mitigating investment herd effects.

作为一项新兴技术，生成式人工智能正在改变企业的决策流程，尤其是投资决策。虽然现有研究强调了其提高决策效率的潜力，但其对企业投资羊群行为的影响尚未得到充分探讨。本文利用2017 - 2024年中国a股非金融类上市公司的面板数据，研究了生成式人工智能对企业投资羊群行为的影响及其在不同行业和企业类型之间的异质性。结果表明，生成式人工智能显著降低了企业投资决策中的羊群行为，增强了决策独立性。机制分析表明，这种效应通过提高投资决策质量、降低代理成本和增强企业与投资者之间的互动来实现。异质性分析进一步表明，非国有企业和高新技术产业的影响较强，而非高新技术产业和国有企业的影响较弱。这些发现为生成式人工智能在塑造企业投资行为和缓解投资羊群效应方面的作用提供了企业层面的证据。

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引用次数: 0

Extreme climate effects on agricultural growth: the role of digital transformation 极端气候对农业增长的影响：数字化转型的作用

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Economics & Finance

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.105124

Jing Wang , Baoren Yang

This study systematically examines the impact mechanisms and heterogeneity of extreme climate on agricultural development using provincial panel data from China for the period 2011-2022. By constructing a panel double fixed-effects model, QRPD quantile regression model, and employing the instrumental variable method, the study finds that extreme climate has a significant suppressive effect on agricultural development. The quantile regression results indicate that as the agricultural development quantile increases, the suppressive effect of extreme climate gradually diminishes, suggesting that improvements in agricultural modernization help enhance climate resilience. Further research reveals that agricultural digital transformation and government environmental governance, as key moderating mechanisms, can effectively mitigate the negative impacts of extreme climate. This study provides new empirical evidence for understanding the complex relationship between climate risks and agricultural development and offers a scientific basis for the formulation of differentiated climate adaptation policies.

本文利用2011-2022年中国省级面板数据，系统考察了极端气候对农业发展的影响机制和异质性。通过构建面板双固定效应模型、QRPD分位数回归模型，并采用工具变量法，研究发现极端气候对农业发展具有显著的抑制作用。分位数回归结果表明，随着农业发展分位数的增加，极端气候的抑制作用逐渐减弱，表明农业现代化水平的提高有助于增强气候适应能力。进一步研究发现，农业数字化转型和政府环境治理作为关键调节机制，能够有效缓解极端气候的负面影响。本研究为认识气候风险与农业发展之间的复杂关系提供了新的经验证据，并为制定差别化的气候适应政策提供了科学依据。

引用次数: 0

Policy-driven transition risks: Evidence from ESG investment policies 政策驱动的转型风险：来自ESG投资政策的证据

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Economics & Finance

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.105111

Fangning Fu , Yong Wang , Zhixi Zhou

This study investigates whether ESG investment policies have introduced transition risks and its transmission mechanisms. We employ the China's Green Investment Guidelines launched in 2018 as a quasi-natural experiment. Based on the continuous difference-in-differences approach, we find evidence that the ESG investment policy shows a positive association with market risk, suggesting the existence of policy-driven transition risks. The underlying mechanism on the firm level is driven by the external pressure and internal resource reallocation. Further analysis shows that ESG investment policies mainly function through channeling resources toward green enterprises, and do not materially increase the stranded risk of brown assets. This study offers valuable insights into the understanding of policy-driven transition risks and significant implications for low-carbon development.

本研究探讨ESG投资政策是否引入了转型风险及其传导机制。我们将2018年发布的《中国绿色投资指引》作为准自然实验。基于连续差中差方法，我们发现ESG投资政策与市场风险呈正相关，表明政策驱动的转型风险存在。企业层面的根本机制是由外部压力和内部资源再配置驱动的。进一步分析表明，ESG投资政策主要通过引导资源流向绿色企业发挥作用，并没有实质性地增加棕色资产的搁浅风险。本研究为理解政策驱动的转型风险和对低碳发展的重大影响提供了有价值的见解。

引用次数: 0

Behavioral determinants of cryptocurrency adoption during financial collapse: Evidence from Lebanon 金融崩溃期间加密货币采用的行为决定因素：来自黎巴嫩的证据

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Economics & Finance

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.105165

Dani Aoun , Chris Youssef , Nada Jabbour Al Maalouf

This study examines the behavioral determinants of cryptocurrency adoption in Lebanon, utilizing the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) during the country's severe financial crisis, marked by hyperinflation, capital controls, and widespread institutional distrust. The study provides an interpretive extension of TPB, using Resilience Theory to explain how crisis conditions reweigh the relative strength of TPB pathways, rather than changing its structural constructs. Using survey data from 207 respondents and structural equation modeling, the findings reveal that subjective norms are positively associated with adoption intention, closely followed by attitude. Perceived behavioral control shows a weaker but significant association. Multi-group analysis indicates that neither age nor gender significantly moderates those associations. The results suggest that, under systemic financial collapse, cryptocurrency adoption is socially embedded and necessity-driven rather than purely innovation-oriented or speculative. By contextualizing TPB within a crisis environment, this study offers a resilience-informed interpretation of digital finance adoption and provides insights for policymakers and fintech developers operating in fragile economic systems.

本研究在黎巴嫩严重的金融危机期间，利用计划行为理论（TPB），研究了黎巴嫩采用加密货币的行为决定因素，其特征是恶性通货膨胀、资本管制和普遍的机构不信任。该研究提供了TPB的解释性扩展，使用弹性理论来解释危机条件如何重新衡量TPB路径的相对强度，而不是改变其结构结构。通过对207名被调查者的调查数据和结构方程建模，发现主观规范与采用意愿呈正相关，其次是态度。感知行为控制表现出较弱但显著的关联。多组分析表明，年龄和性别都没有显著调节这些关联。结果表明，在系统性金融崩溃的情况下，加密货币的采用是社会嵌入和需求驱动的，而不是纯粹以创新为导向或投机。通过将TPB置于危机环境中，本研究提供了对数字金融采用的弹性知情解释，并为在脆弱经济系统中运营的政策制定者和金融科技开发商提供了见解。

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