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Getting Religion Wrong A Response to Toft’s “Getting Religion Right” 错误的宗教——对托夫特《正确的宗教》的回应
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2026-09-03 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241284803
Nils-Christian Bormann, Lars-Erik Cederman, Manuel Vogt
In a recent contribution to the Journal of Conflict Resolution , Monica Toft presents new data and analysis that suggest a rise in religious civil war, and question our findings on linguistic and religious cleavages' effect on armed conflict onset. We welcome Toft’s contribution, in particular her replication of our results, and the very well documented new dataset on civil wars. Yet we disagree with several of Toft’s specific claims and raise three larger questions about the study of religion and armed conflict. First, what is the relevant counterfactual when analyzing the religion-conflict link? Second, how useful is it to classify entire conflicts as religious? Third, what is the mechanism that links religion and conflict? Revisiting her analysis and adding new empirical evidence, we show that Toft fails to undermine our earlier results and does not find support for her own theoretical mechanism of religious outbidding in the Muslim world.
莫妮卡·托夫特最近在《冲突解决杂志》上发表的一篇文章中,提出了新的数据和分析,表明宗教内战有所增加,并质疑我们关于语言和宗教分歧对武装冲突爆发的影响的研究结果。我们欢迎Toft的贡献,特别是她对我们的结果的重复,以及关于内战的记录良好的新数据集。然而,我们不同意托夫特的一些具体主张,并提出了关于宗教和武装冲突研究的三个更大的问题。首先,在分析宗教与冲突的联系时,什么是相关的反事实?第二,把所有的冲突都归为宗教冲突有多大用处?第三,将宗教与冲突联系起来的机制是什么?重新审视她的分析并添加新的经验证据,我们发现Toft没有破坏我们之前的结果,也没有找到支持她自己的穆斯林世界宗教竞标理论机制的证据。
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引用次数: 0
Whataboutism in International Diplomacy: Shaping Third-Party Public Attitudes Toward U.S. Foreign Policy 国际外交中的什么主义:塑造第三方公众对美国外交政策的态度
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2026-08-26 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261481045
Wilfred M. Chow, Dov H. Levin, Atsushi Tago
How does whataboutism influence the attitudes of third-party and allied audiences during international diplomatic exchanges? States openly accused of misconduct often employ whataboutism, deflecting criticism by highlighting the accuser’s own transgressions. Although policymakers frequently discuss whataboutism, research on its effects—especially on third-party publics—is limited. This study addresses the gap by examining via survey experiments a “hard case”: the impact of whataboutism targeting the U.S. on Japanese and the British publics, two steadfast U.S. allies. Our findings reveal that whataboutism significantly undermines support for the critic’s actions and diminishes the willingness of these populations to back sanctions led by the critic against states engaging in whataboutism. These results, the first empirical evidence of whataboutism’s effects on third-party allied publics, highlight whataboutism’s potency in shaping international public opinion, even among audiences from nations closely aligned with the critic country, potentially constraining U.S. foreign policy options.
在国际外交交往中,什么主义如何影响第三方和盟国受众的态度?公开指控不当行为的国家经常采用“什么”主义,通过强调指控者自己的违法行为来转移批评。尽管政策制定者经常讨论什么是主义,但对其影响的研究——尤其是对第三方公众的影响——是有限的。本研究通过调查实验研究了一个“硬案例”来解决这一差距:针对美国的“什么是”主义对日本和英国公众的影响,这两个国家是美国的坚定盟友。我们的研究结果表明,“什么是主义”极大地削弱了对批评者行动的支持,并削弱了这些民众支持批评者领导的针对从事“什么是主义”的国家的制裁的意愿。这些结果是“什么态度”对第三方盟国公众影响的第一个实证证据,强调了“什么态度”在塑造国际舆论方面的潜力,甚至在与批评国关系密切的国家的受众中也是如此,这可能会限制美国的外交政策选择。
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引用次数: 0
Toft Response: “Getting Religion Even More Right” Toft回应:“让宗教更加正确”
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2026-08-25 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261480752
Monica Duffy Toft
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引用次数: 0
The Role of Religion in Civil War – Are We Really Getting It? 宗教在内战中的作用——我们真的明白了吗?
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2026-08-24 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261480751
Isak Svensson
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引用次数: 0
Blueprints and Blind Spots: Sixty Years of Mediation Scholarship and the Design of Peace Processes 蓝图与盲点:六十年调解研究与和平进程设计
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2026-07-16 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261468727
Allard Duursma, Govinda Clayton, David Lanz, Marc Werner
This article reviews 60 years of academic research on peace mediation. Drawing on 395 academic articles published between 1966 and 2025, we assess the field through six core mediation process design questions: why, when, who, how, what, and where . We show that scholarship has generated important insights but has often addressed design questions in isolation, with limited attention to how they interact in practice. The literature on peace mediation is therefore marked by blind spots and conceptual fragmentation, not fully capturing the integrated nature of mediation processes. Organizing existing research through a process design framework allows us to identify key gaps and connections across strands of scholarship. We argue that research should more explicitly address the interdependence of design factors. This perspective clarifies priorities for future mediation research by identifying analytically promising questions and highlighting opportunities for more systematic and comparative inquiry.
本文回顾了60年来关于和平调解的学术研究。根据1966年至2025年间发表的395篇学术文章,我们通过六个核心调解过程设计问题来评估这一领域:为什么、何时、谁、如何、什么和在哪里。我们表明,学术研究已经产生了重要的见解,但往往是孤立地解决设计问题,对它们在实践中如何相互作用的关注有限。因此,关于和平调解的文献存在盲点和概念碎片,没有充分把握调解进程的整体性。通过流程设计框架组织现有的研究,使我们能够确定学术领域之间的关键差距和联系。我们认为,研究应该更明确地解决设计因素之间的相互依存关系。这一观点通过确定分析上有希望的问题,并强调进行更系统和比较调查的机会,澄清了未来调解研究的优先事项。
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引用次数: 0
Black Box Warfare: Human Judgment and Military Decision-Making in the Age of AI 黑箱战:人工智能时代的人类判断与军事决策
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2026-07-02 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261463443
Ryan Shandler, Michael L. Gross, Yahli Shereshevsky
How is AI transforming decision-making in modern conflict? This study provides a unique empirical window into that question by deploying a high-fidelity replica of an AI decision-support system (DSS) used in military targeting. After reconstructing the interface and functionality of the real-world system, we tested its impact on combat decisions in two experiments involving 2,015 Israeli military personnel. Contrary to widespread fears of automation bias, we find strong evidence of algorithmic aversion, especially in scenarios involving high collateral damage. Yet we also show that integrating “explainable AI” features reduces algorithmic aversion and promotes more thoughtful evaluations of algorithmic recommendations. These findings challenge prevailing assumptions, revealing that trust in military AI is dynamic, varying with individual predispositions, perceived operational stakes, and the informational features of the interface. By grounding normative concerns in empirical evidence, our study offers critical insight into the integration of AI in warfare and underscores the enduring importance of human agency in high-stakes military decision-making.
人工智能如何改变现代冲突中的决策?本研究通过部署用于军事目标的人工智能决策支持系统(DSS)的高保真副本,为该问题提供了一个独特的经验窗口。在重建了真实世界系统的界面和功能之后,我们在两个涉及2015名以色列军事人员的实验中测试了它对战斗决策的影响。与对自动化偏见的普遍担忧相反,我们发现了对算法厌恶的有力证据,尤其是在涉及高附带损害的情况下。然而,我们也表明,整合“可解释的人工智能”功能减少了对算法的厌恶,并促进了对算法推荐的更深思熟虑的评估。这些发现挑战了普遍的假设,揭示了对军事人工智能的信任是动态的,随着个人倾向、感知到的操作风险和界面的信息特征而变化。通过将规范性问题建立在经验证据的基础上,我们的研究为人工智能在战争中的整合提供了重要见解,并强调了人类机构在高风险军事决策中的持久重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Dominant Nationalism and Civil War 主导民族主义和内战
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2026-07-02 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261466642
Andreas Juon, Lars-Erik Cederman
Civil war research has primarily studied ethnic nationalism in the form of emancipatory movements that seek to attain government representation or autonomy. In contrast, it has neglected nationalist movements whose ideology insists on a specific group’s political dominance . Addressing this gap, we argue that dominant nationalism increases the risk of civil war through three mechanisms: First, under the influence of dominant nationalist ideology, governing elites are more likely to politically exclude outgroups, even if doing so increases the risk of civil war. Second, if they control the government, dominant nationalists can also spark civil war by victimizing outgroup members. Finally, dominant nationalism fuels conflict-prone independence demands among outgroups. Using new data covering 90 countries since WWII, we find robust support for these expectations. Our results underline the need for cross-national conflict research to take more seriously the role of dominant nationalism and of ideology more broadly.
内战研究主要是研究寻求获得政府代表权或自治权的解放运动形式的民族主义。相比之下,它忽视了民族主义运动,这些运动的意识形态坚持一个特定群体的政治主导地位。为了解决这一差距,我们认为,占主导地位的民族主义通过三种机制增加了内战的风险:首先,在占主导地位的民族主义意识形态的影响下,执政精英更有可能在政治上排斥外部群体,即使这样做会增加内战的风险。其次,如果他们控制了政府,占主导地位的民族主义者也可以通过伤害群体外成员来引发内战。最后,占主导地位的民族主义助长了外围群体中容易产生冲突的独立诉求。利用二战以来覆盖90个国家的新数据,我们发现这些预期得到了有力支持。我们的研究结果强调了跨国冲突研究需要更认真地对待主导民族主义和更广泛的意识形态的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Shooting From the Hip: The Counterintuitively Intuitive Nature of Deterrence 从臀部射击:反直觉的直觉性质的威慑
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2026-06-23 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261451440
Brian C. Rathbun, Caleb Pomeroy, Joshua D. Kertzer
Much if not most of human judgment is intuitive rather than reflective, but what types of behaviors result from non-deliberative as opposed to deliberative choice? We argue that for evolutionary reasons, intuition favors retaliatory aggression and a reliance on the deterrence model, the set of hunches that stress the importance of standing firm and demonstrating resolve to avoid challenges. By contrast, careful and analytical thought tends towards diplomacy and cooperation. By thinking from the gut and shooting from the hip, humans solved deterrence challenges in our evolutionary past. Across four studies—a time pressure experiment, an observational survey of thinking styles, a large-scale text analysis of Cold War US foreign policy elites, and a case study of US President Ronald Reagan—we find support for these expectations. These results are surprising, given that deterrence is often associated with rational deliberation. Instead, the intuitive nature of retaliatory aggression and the embrace of the deterrence model seem to be ecologically rational.
大多数人的判断都是凭直觉而不是经过深思熟虑的,但是哪些类型的行为是由非深思熟虑的选择而不是深思熟虑的选择导致的呢?我们认为,出于进化的原因,直觉倾向于报复性攻击和对威慑模型的依赖,威慑模型是一组强调坚定立场和展示决心以避免挑战的重要性的预感。相比之下,谨慎和分析的思维倾向于外交和合作。通过直觉思考和臀部射击,人类在进化过程中解决了威慑挑战。通过四项研究——时间压力实验、思维方式观察调查、冷战时期美国外交政策精英的大规模文本分析,以及美国总统罗纳德·里根的案例研究——我们发现了对这些预期的支持。这些结果令人惊讶,因为威慑常常与理性思考联系在一起。相反,报复性侵略的直觉本质和对威慑模式的拥抱似乎是生态理性的。
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引用次数: 0
Green-Lighting Accountability: Transitional Justice and Compliance With Rulings From the Inter-American Court of Human Rights 开绿灯问责制:过渡时期的司法和对美洲人权法院裁决的遵守
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2026-06-23 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261459942
Pearce Edwards, Kelly Morrison, Chesani Askew
When do democratically-elected leaders comply with rulings from international courts? While international courts have been studied independently, little research examines their interaction with state-level transitional justice (TJ) institutions. We evaluate the incentives of post-authoritarian leaders to comply with rulings of international courts related to violence under military dictatorships. We expect leaders to be more likely to comply with international court rulings addressing authoritarian human rights violations when maximalist TJ (domestic trials and vettings) has been implemented. In contrast, we expect leaders will be no more likely to comply when minimalist TJ (amnesties) has been adopted. Using data on remedies issued by the Inter-American Court of Human Rights from 1989 to 2020 for abuses committed under military dictatorships, we find that compliance is more likely following domestic trials and vettings but amnesties have no significant effect on the likelihood of compliance, as predicted. Overall, our results suggest that international courts serve as complements for domestic TJ.
民主选举产生的领导人何时遵守国际法院的裁决?虽然对国际法院进行了独立研究,但很少有研究考察它们与国家级过渡司法机构的相互作用。我们评估了后威权主义领导人遵守国际法院关于军事独裁统治下暴力的裁决的动机。我们预计,当最高限度的TJ(国内审判和审查)得到实施时,领导人更有可能遵守国际法院关于威权主义侵犯人权的裁决。相比之下,我们预计,当采取最低限度的TJ(大赦)时,领导人不会更有可能遵守。利用1989年至2020年美洲人权法院(Inter-American Court of Human Rights)发布的关于军事独裁统治下的侵权行为的补救措施的数据,我们发现,在国内审判和审查之后,遵守的可能性更大,但正如预测的那样,大赦对遵守的可能性没有显著影响。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,国际法院可以作为国内司法审判的补充。
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引用次数: 0
Crumbling Safe Havens? International Justice Regime and Conflict Amnesty for Serious Crimes 摇摇欲坠的避风港?国际司法制度与冲突严重犯罪大赦
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2026-05-30 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261457611
Myung Jung Kim
Why does amnesty for mass atrocities persist despite the international justice regime’s efforts to end impunity? I address this puzzle by highlighting a new dynamic in contemporary civil wars: the growing risk of international prosecution in rebel groups’ foreign sanctuaries. I argue that the international justice regime—particularly the International Criminal Court (ICC) and universal jurisdiction—undermines the security of these sanctuaries, making return under amnesty more attractive for rebel groups. This logic explains why amnesty for serious crimes persists, if not increases, despite the global norm against impunity. Large-N analyses show, first, that rebel groups operating abroad and facing international legal risk are more likely to obtain amnesty, and second, that amnesty provisions increase as prosecution risks rise in host states. The findings reveal an irony of global justice: a system created to end impunity entrenches it through amnesties, while simultaneously constraining warlords’ operational space and narrowing their strategic options.
为什么尽管国际司法制度努力结束有罪不罚现象,对大规模暴行的大赦仍然存在?我通过强调当代内战中的一种新动态来解决这个难题:在反叛组织的外国庇护所受到国际起诉的风险越来越大。我认为,国际司法制度——尤其是国际刑事法院(ICC)和普遍管辖权——破坏了这些庇护所的安全,使得大赦下的回归对反叛组织更有吸引力。这一逻辑解释了为什么尽管全球普遍反对有罪不罚,但对严重犯罪的特赦仍在继续,如果不是增加的话。大n分析表明,首先,在国外活动并面临国际法律风险的反叛组织更有可能获得大赦;其次,大赦条款随着东道国起诉风险的增加而增加。调查结果揭示了全球正义的一个讽刺之处:一个旨在结束有罪不罚现象的制度通过大赦巩固了有罪不罚现象,同时限制了军阀的行动空间,缩小了他们的战略选择。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Conflict Resolution
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