Climate Risk Management最新文献

High-resolution spatiotemporal analysis and driver attribution of floods in Kazakhstan using SHAP and remote sensing integration 基于SHAP和遥感整合的哈萨克斯坦洪灾高分辨率时空分析及驱动因素归因

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100783

Yixuan Liu , Alim Samat , Peijun Du , Jin Chen , Jilili Abuduwaili , Kaiyue Luo , Enzhao Zhu , Dana Shokparova

The escalating impacts of global climate change and extreme weather have intensified flood risks worldwide, including in arid and semi-arid regions traditionally considered low-risk. This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of flood events across Kazakhstan from 2000 to 2024 by integrating remote sensing (RS) with machine learning (ML). Using Google Earth Engine (GEE), we address data gaps and cloud interference through spatiotemporal fusion (STARFM), denoising, smoothing, and sample transferring techniques. In addition, this study incorporates the Time-Disaggregated Water Frequency (TWF) method, which enables the identification of water bodies with temporal variability, eliminates permanent water bodies, and distinguishes flood from non-flood conditions in seasonal water bodies, thereby enhancing the accuracy of flood reconstruction and enabling precise delineation of flood inundation areas. Landsat and MODIS imagery are combined to produce high-resolution flood distribution maps, while spectral similarity indicators guide the transfer of samples from the Global Flood Database. A range of spectral, texture, environmental, and socioeconomic features is extracted, with flood classification performed using random forest (RF) and attribution analysis conducted via XGBoost and SHAP. Results highlight a high flood risk in northern, southwestern, and western Kazakhstan, primarily driven by changes in precipitation (PRE), temperature (TEM), soil moisture (SM), and land use. Floods occur most frequently in spring — especially in March and April — due to snowmelt and extreme precipitation. The ML models achieve over 80 % classification accuracy, demonstrating their reliability. This work improves flood monitoring and provides essential insights for climate adaptation and targeted flood risk management in Kazakhstan.

全球气候变化和极端天气的影响不断升级，加剧了世界范围内的洪水风险，包括在传统上被视为低风险的干旱和半干旱地区。本研究通过将遥感（RS）与机器学习（ML）相结合，研究了2000年至2024年哈萨克斯坦洪水事件的时空动态。利用谷歌地球引擎（GEE），我们通过时空融合（STARFM）、去噪、平滑和样本转移技术来解决数据缺口和云干扰。此外，本研究还结合了时间分解水频率（TWF）方法，可以识别具有时间变化的水体，消除永久性水体，并区分季节性水体的洪水与非洪水情况，从而提高洪水重建的准确性，实现洪水淹没区域的精确划定。Landsat和MODIS图像相结合可以生成高分辨率的洪水分布图，而光谱相似度指标则指导从全球洪水数据库传输样本。提取一系列光谱、纹理、环境和社会经济特征，使用随机森林（RF）进行洪水分类，并通过XGBoost和SHAP进行归因分析。结果表明，哈萨克斯坦北部、西南部和西部的洪水风险较高，主要受降水（PRE）、温度（TEM）、土壤湿度（SM）和土地利用变化的驱动。由于融雪和极端降水，洪水最常发生在春季，尤其是3月和4月。机器学习模型的分类准确率达到80%以上，证明了其可靠性。这项工作改善了洪水监测，并为哈萨克斯坦的气候适应和有针对性的洪水风险管理提供了重要见解。

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引用次数: 0

Bridging community resilience and local planning for climate justice 衔接社区复原力和地方气候正义规划

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100776

Kelsea Best , Qian He , Aaron B. Flores , Donghwan Gu , Junia Howell , David R. Johnson , Yanjun Liao , Allison C. Reilly , Andrew Rumbach , Tamara Sheldon , A.R. Siders , Gabrielle Wong-Parodi , Rachel Young , Deb Niemeier

As the effects of climate change increase, and as the federal government deprioritizes climate action, local governments must grapple with the complex challenge of enhancing resilience. Despite the importance of local-scale planning and finance for equitable climate resilience, the knowledge needed to support such efforts is poorly defined. We outline four challenge areas and corresponding priority considerations: capacity and governance, adaptation and recovery, funding mechanisms, and data and methodological needs. By strengthening knowledge and partnerships in each of these areas, scholars, policymakers, and practitioners can better support communities to respond to and recover from the effects of a changing climate.

随着气候变化影响的增加，以及联邦政府对气候行动的不重视，地方政府必须努力应对增强韧性的复杂挑战。尽管地方规模的规划和融资对于公平的气候适应能力至关重要，但支持此类努力所需的知识却定义不清。我们概述了四个挑战领域和相应的优先考虑：能力和治理、适应和恢复、融资机制以及数据和方法需求。通过加强这些领域的知识和伙伴关系，学者、政策制定者和从业者可以更好地支持社区应对气候变化的影响并从中恢复过来。

引用次数: 0

Critical science for the next decade of climate risk management 未来十年气候风险管理的关键科学

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100770

Meg Parsons , Johanna Nalau , Veruska Muccione , Maarten van Aalst , Suraje Dessai , Tess Doeffinger , Xinyu Fu , Toshihiro Hasegawa , Danial Khojasteh , Rahwa Kidane , Benjamin L. Preston , Nicholas P. Simpson , Anita Wreford , Katharine J. Mach

Escalating climate-related risks make climate risk management more important than ever. While research on climate risk management has generated substantial useful information on its potential, the practice of climate risk management has not yet fully operationalized this knowledge, and it has simultaneously revealed new challenges. Especially as momentum around climate action wanes in some contexts, research on climate risk management has crucial opportunities to inform and unleash proactive, effective climate adaptation. Here, we reflect on the evolution of climate risk management over time, the lessons learned, and key research and policy issues underpinning the future of the field. Through this collective perspective, we encourage submissions on a range of interlocking themes—adaptation decision support and finance, climate security and justice, emerging technologies and evaluation, and portfolios of action—which together promise to advance both the science and practice of climate risk management.

不断升级的气候相关风险使得气候风险管理比以往任何时候都更加重要。虽然气候风险管理的研究已经产生了关于其潜力的大量有用信息，但气候风险管理的实践尚未充分利用这些知识，同时也暴露了新的挑战。特别是在某些情况下，气候行动的势头减弱，气候风险管理研究有重要的机会为主动有效的气候适应提供信息并发挥作用。在这里，我们反思了气候风险管理随着时间的推移的演变，吸取的教训，以及支撑该领域未来的关键研究和政策问题。通过这一集体视角，我们鼓励提交一系列相互关联的主题——适应决策支持和融资、气候安全和正义、新兴技术和评估以及行动组合——这些主题共同有望推进气候风险管理的科学和实践。

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引用次数: 0

A method for tracking national progress towards climate change adaptation 一种跟踪国家适应气候变化进展的方法

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100800

Tia Brullo , Jon Barnett , Elissa Waters , Sarah Boulter

Adaptation tracking is now an important means to characterise, report, and monitor progress towards reducing vulnerability to climate change. The means and methods for adaptation tracking are challenging and diverse due to differing purposes and sectors and scales of analysis, difficulties in classifying activities as adaptation of one kind or another, and challenges in defining and measuring progress. Here we report on the approach and method used to develop the Australian Adaptation Database. With 900 adaptation activities coded, the database is a repository for learning from the efforts of others, helps to track progress in adaptation activities across all sectors and scales in Australia, and helps responsible authorities to meet reporting obligations. The paper describes the method to develop the database and focusses on an approach to assess progress in adaptation within and between sectors and jurisdictions. We propose adaptation progress is the degree to which adaptation activities move towards interventions that affect changes intended to reduce vulnerability. This approach enables adaptation stocktakes to infer progress from the nature of adaptation activities, with those that are closer to the ‘intervention’ stage being closer to reducing vulnerability than those that are precursors to intervention. Though the nature of adaptation makes all such exercises imperfect, the result, we propose, is a framework and method that serves the purposes of characterising, reporting, and monitoring progress towards adaptation within a country.

适应跟踪现在是描述、报告和监测在减少气候变化脆弱性方面取得进展的重要手段。适应跟踪的手段和方法具有挑战性和多样性，因为分析的目的、部门和规模不同，难以将活动归类为一种或另一种适应，以及在定义和衡量进展方面存在挑战。在这里，我们报告了用于开发澳大利亚适应数据库的方法和方法。该数据库对900项适应活动进行了编码，是学习他人努力的知识库，有助于跟踪澳大利亚所有部门和规模的适应活动的进展情况，并帮助主管当局履行报告义务。本文描述了开发该数据库的方法，并侧重于评估部门和司法管辖区内部和之间的适应进展的方法。我们提出，适应进展是指适应活动朝着影响旨在降低脆弱性的变化的干预措施迈进的程度。这种方法使适应盘点能够从适应活动的性质中推断出进展，那些更接近“干预”阶段的阶段比那些处于干预前期的阶段更接近于减少脆弱性。尽管适应的本质使得所有这些练习都不完美，但我们提出，结果是提供了一个框架和方法，用于描述、报告和监测一个国家的适应进展。

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引用次数: 0

Navigating heatwaves in a temperate climate: barriers to behavioural adaptation in Dutch urban areas 在温带气候中导航热浪：荷兰城市地区行为适应的障碍

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100794

Istiaque Ahmed, Marjolein van Esch, Ana Petrović, Frank van der Hoeven

Heatwaves are no longer rare anomalies in temperate cities; they are lived, negotiated, and unevenly endured. Yet behavioural adaptation—a vital first line of defence—remains underexplored. Drawing on a sequential mixed-methods design integrating in-depth interviews (N = 21) and a nationwide survey (N = 1,849) across Dutch urban density gradients, this study shows that behavioural adaptation is less a matter of individual choice than of social, structural, and spatial constraint. Homeowners leveraged their control over private spaces to adopt both active and passive technological adjustments, achieving higher adaptation scores. Tenants, constrained by housing tenure, disproportionately relied on cultural adjustments rooted in social ties and experiential knowledge. Residents of very highly urbanised areas reported higher indoor temperatures and demonstrated the lowest adaptation scores, revealing density-driven limits to coping capacity. Gender and household composition further influenced adaptive capacity, with women and multi-person households displaying consistently stronger responses. By centring behavioural adaptation, the study identifies key barriers and exposes the mechanisms through which adaptation inequality takes shape in temperate urban settings.

在温带城市，热浪不再是罕见的反常现象；它们是活生生的，是协商的，是不均衡的忍受。然而，行为适应——至关重要的第一道防线——仍未得到充分探索。通过对荷兰城市密度梯度进行深度访谈（N = 21）和全国性调查（N = 1849）的连续混合方法设计，本研究表明，行为适应与其说是个人选择的问题，不如说是社会、结构和空间约束的问题。房主利用他们对私人空间的控制，采用主动和被动的技术调整，获得更高的适应分数。受住房使用权限制的租户，不成比例地依赖植根于社会关系和经验知识的文化调整。高度城市化地区的居民报告了较高的室内温度，表现出最低的适应得分，揭示了密度驱动的应对能力限制。性别和家庭构成进一步影响了适应能力，妇女和多口家庭始终表现出更强的反应。通过以行为适应为中心，该研究确定了主要障碍，并揭示了适应不平等在温带城市环境中形成的机制。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing climate change impacts on military academies: a comparative analysis of the United States Military Academy and the South African Military Academy 评估气候变化对军事学院的影响：美国军事学院和南非军事学院的比较分析

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100784

Mark Read , Hennie Smit , Ivan Henrico , Babalwa Mtshawu , Lesley Welman

Climate change poses growing challenges to military institutions, particularly academies where training, education, and infrastructure are co-located. This study assesses how climate change may affect the United States Military Academy (USMA) at West Point and the South African Military Academy (SAMA) in Saldanha, focusing on implications for training activities, academic programmes, and infrastructure resilience. USMA, located in New York’s Hudson Highlands, is experiencing a warming Humid Continental climate with rising temperatures, stronger tropical cyclones, increased precipitation, and heightened flood risk. SAMA, situated on South Africa’s West Coast, faces a hotter and drier Mediterranean climate, with projected declines in rainfall and sustained water scarcity. Using descriptive climatic data and institutional information, the study compares the climate-related pressures likely to affect each academy over coming decades. The analysis shows that although the academies face distinct climatic trajectories, both will need to adapt training protocols, strengthen infrastructure, and integrate climate resilience into defence education. The findings underscore the importance of coordinated planning and proactive adaptation measures to sustain mission readiness and ensure that future military leaders are adequately prepared for climate-related operational and strategic challenges.

气候变化给军事机构带来了越来越大的挑战，尤其是那些训练、教育和基础设施都在同一地点的院校。本研究评估了气候变化如何影响西点军校的美国军事学院（USMA）和萨尔达尼亚的南非军事学院（SAMA），重点关注对培训活动、学术项目和基础设施恢复能力的影响。USMA位于纽约哈德逊高地，正经历着温暖潮湿的大陆性气候，气温上升，热带气旋更强，降水增加，洪水风险增加。SAMA位于南非西海岸，面临着更热、更干燥的地中海气候，预计降雨量会减少，水资源会持续短缺。利用描述性气候数据和机构信息，该研究比较了未来几十年可能影响每个学院的气候相关压力。分析表明，尽管两所院校面临着不同的气候轨迹，但它们都需要调整培训协议，加强基础设施，并将气候适应能力纳入国防教育。研究结果强调了协调规划和主动适应措施的重要性，以维持任务准备，并确保未来的军事领导人为气候相关的业务和战略挑战做好充分准备。

{"title":"Assessing climate change impacts on military academies: a comparative analysis of the United States Military Academy and the South African Military Academy","authors":"Mark Read , Hennie Smit , Ivan Henrico , Babalwa Mtshawu , Lesley Welman","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100784","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100784","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change poses growing challenges to military institutions, particularly academies where training, education, and infrastructure are co-located. This study assesses how climate change may affect the United States Military Academy (USMA) at West Point and the South African Military Academy (SAMA) in Saldanha, focusing on implications for training activities, academic programmes, and infrastructure resilience. USMA, located in New York’s Hudson Highlands, is experiencing a warming Humid Continental climate with rising temperatures, stronger tropical cyclones, increased precipitation, and heightened flood risk. SAMA, situated on South Africa’s West Coast, faces a hotter and drier Mediterranean climate, with projected declines in rainfall and sustained water scarcity. Using descriptive climatic data and institutional information, the study compares the climate-related pressures likely to affect each academy over coming decades. The analysis shows that although the academies face distinct climatic trajectories, both will need to adapt training protocols, strengthen infrastructure, and integrate climate resilience into defence education. The findings underscore the importance of coordinated planning and proactive adaptation measures to sustain mission readiness and ensure that future military leaders are adequately prepared for climate-related operational and strategic challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100784"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

What if farmers had seen it coming? The retrospective potential of extended-range forecasts in managing the 2018 drought in Norwegian agriculture 如果农民们预见到了它的到来呢？扩展范围预测在管理2018年挪威农业干旱方面的回顾性潜力

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100792

Manuel Hempel , Erik W. Kolstad

Climate variability and extreme weather events pose substantial challenges to global agriculture, threatening food security and self-sufficiency. In Norway, these impacts are anticipated to intensify with climate change. Extended-range weather forecasts, which predict conditions several weeks ahead, have emerged as powerful tools for enhancing agricultural decision-making and climate risk management.

The 2018 drought in Norway, the most severe agricultural crisis in decades, starkly highlighted the sector’s vulnerability to climate risks. This study investigates the potential benefits of extended-range forecasts, which were not available to farmers during the drought. We focused on whether these forecasts could have accurately predicted the drought and how they might have been leveraged by the agricultural sector.

Our findings reveal a high user demand and forecast relevance; however, significant gaps in communication, interpretation, and decision-making capacity were evident. Even if they had had access to the forecasts, individual farmers would have faced limited options to avert low yields due to the lack of adaptive infrastructure like irrigation systems. Yet, at the organizational level, there was substantial potential to enhance crisis management through improved communication strategies and decision-making frameworks.

Investments in resilient agricultural practices and infrastructure, combined with these improved strategies, would enable the agriculture sector to better leverage extended-range forecasts, resulting in better crisis management and mitigation of future extreme weather events.

The broader implication is clear: integrating reliable climate forecasts into agricultural decision-making processes can enhance resilience, by improving preparedness for increasing climate threats, thereby helping to secure food self-sufficiency in Norway and beyond.

气候变率和极端天气事件对全球农业构成重大挑战，威胁粮食安全和自给自足。在挪威，预计这些影响将随着气候变化而加剧。可预测未来数周天气状况的大范围天气预报已成为加强农业决策和气候风险管理的有力工具。2018年挪威的干旱是几十年来最严重的农业危机，突显了该行业对气候风险的脆弱性。这项研究调查了在干旱期间农民无法获得的扩展范围预测的潜在好处。我们关注的是这些预测是否能准确预测干旱，以及农业部门如何利用这些预测。我们的研究结果揭示了高用户需求和预测相关性；然而，在沟通、解释和决策能力方面存在明显差距。即使他们有机会获得预测，由于缺乏灌溉系统等适应性基础设施，个体农民也将面临有限的选择来避免低产量。然而，在组织一级，通过改进沟通战略和决策框架，有很大的潜力来加强危机管理。对抗灾农业做法和基础设施的投资，加上这些改进的战略，将使农业部门能够更好地利用大范围预报，从而更好地管理危机，减轻未来极端天气事件的影响。更广泛的含义是明确的：将可靠的气候预测纳入农业决策过程，可以通过提高对日益增加的气候威胁的准备来增强抵御能力，从而有助于确保挪威和其他国家的粮食自给自足。

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引用次数: 0

Extreme weather events and pathways to mental health outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review 撒哈拉以南非洲极端天气事件和通往精神卫生结果的途径：系统回顾

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100797

G. Nduku Wambua , Julia F. Corvetto , Frederick Murunga Wekesah , Aditi Bunker , Nondumiso Mthiyane , Alberto Muanido , Vasco Cumbe , Evans Omondi , Xanthe Hunt , Collins Iwuji

Climate change has led to more frequent and intense extreme weather events (EWEs) globally, with sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) being disproportionately affected. Given the region’s socioeconomic vulnerability and strong reliance on agriculture for subsistence, EWEs have the potential to affect the local population’s mental health. The present systematic review synthesizes evidence on the impacts of EWEs on mental health in SSA, examining moderators and the pathways by which EWEs affect mental health, and identifying particularly vulnerable populations. In accordance with the PRISMA guidelines, we searched the PubMed, PsycINFO, and Web of Science databases and grey literature sources for relevant publications up to June 2024. Of the 3242 initially identified articles, 15 peer-reviewed journal articles from seven countries met the inclusion criteria. Studies examined floods (n = 8), droughts (n = 7), and heavy rainfall (n = 1) as EWEs, and reported psychological distress, anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) as mental health outcomes. Findings indicate that EWEs affect mental health through both direct pathways, reflecting immediate psychological trauma from exposure, and indirect pathways, operating through displacement, economic instability, and water and food insecurity. Moderators included protective factors such as social support and religion, as well as risk factors such as being an adolescent, being female, and being economically disadvantaged. There were few longitudinal studies, a limited examination of heatwaves, and a lack of culturally sensitive strategies for mental health support, indicating evidence gaps. As the incidence of EWEs increases across SSA, there is an urgent need for expanded research, improved health systems, and targeted interventions for vulnerable populations.

气候变化导致全球极端天气事件（ewe）更加频繁和强烈，撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）受到的影响尤为严重。鉴于该区域的社会经济脆弱性和对农业的高度依赖，ewe有可能影响当地人口的心理健康。本系统综述综合了社会暴力事件对社会暴力地区心理健康影响的证据，研究了社会暴力事件影响心理健康的调节因素和途径，并确定了特别脆弱的人群。根据PRISMA指南，我们检索了PubMed， PsycINFO和Web of Science数据库和灰色文献来源，检索了截至2024年6月的相关出版物。在最初确定的3242篇文章中，来自7个国家的15篇同行评议期刊文章符合纳入标准。研究将洪水（n = 8）、干旱（n = 7）和暴雨（n = 1）作为ews，并报告了心理困扰、焦虑、抑郁和创伤后应激障碍（PTSD）作为心理健康结果。研究结果表明，ewe通过直接途径（反映暴露造成的即时心理创伤）和间接途径（通过流离失所、经济不稳定以及水和粮食不安全）影响心理健康。调节因素包括保护性因素，如社会支持和宗教，以及风险因素，如青少年、女性和经济弱势。很少有纵向研究，对热浪的检查有限，缺乏文化上敏感的心理健康支持策略，表明证据不足。随着SSA地区ewe发病率的增加，迫切需要扩大研究，改善卫生系统，并针对弱势群体进行有针对性的干预。

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引用次数: 0

China’s rural-urban climate education divide: addressing environmental justice in climate literacy 中国城乡气候教育鸿沟：在气候素养中解决环境正义问题

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100799

Joshua Ampofo, Jiacheng Li, Weiwei Zhu

Background

China’s rapid urbanization has created unprecedented disparities in climate education between rural and urban populations, posing a critical environmental justice challenge with global implications.

Objective

This study investigates rural–urban disparities in climate education across China, examining implications for environmental justice and national climate preparedness.

Methods

A convergent mixed-methods approach analyzed 2,847 participants (1,523 rural, 1,324 urban) across 12 provinces using standardized climate literacy assessments and 89 semi-structured interviews. Multilevel models employed restricted maximum likelihood estimation to account for the nested data structure.

Results

Substantial climate literacy disparities exist between rural (mean = 42.3/100, SD = 12.1) and urban populations (mean = 71.8/100, SD = 9.8, p < 0.001; Cohen’s d = 2.7). Rural areas have 73% lower digital access, 68% fewer qualified environmental educators, and 85% less curriculum integration (percentages relative to the urban baseline = 100%). Multilevel modeling revealed community-level factors (teacher qualifications, technology infrastructure, curriculum) explained substantial variance beyond rural–urban status (marginal R² = 0.52 to 0.64). Qualitative analysis identified interconnected violations of justice across the distribution, recognition, and participation dimensions.

Conclusions

China’s rural–urban climate education divide raises significant environmental justice concerns and presents barriers to national climate resilience. While a cross-sectional design limits causal inference, converging evidence indicates that systematic disparities warrant urgent policy intervention through phased reforms that address infrastructure, teacher capacity, and structural inequalities.

背景：中国的快速城市化导致城乡人口在气候教育方面存在前所未有的差异，这对环境正义提出了严峻的挑战，具有全球影响。目的研究中国气候教育的城乡差异，探讨其对环境正义和国家气候准备的影响。方法采用融合混合方法分析了12个省份的2847名参与者（1523名农村人，1324名城市人），采用标准化气候素养评估和89次半结构化访谈。多层模型采用限制最大似然估计来解释嵌套的数据结构。结果农村人口（均值= 42.3/100,SD = 12.1）和城市人口（均值= 71.8/100,SD = 9.8, p < 0.001; Cohen’SD = 2.7）之间存在显著的气候素养差异。农村地区的数字访问率低73%，合格的环境教育工作者少68%，课程整合率低85%（相对于城市基线的百分比= 100%）。多层模型显示，社区层面的因素（教师资格、技术基础设施、课程）解释了城乡地位之外的实质性差异（边际R2 = 0.52至0.64）。定性分析确定了在分配、承认和参与方面相互关联的违反正义的行为。中国城乡气候教育的差异引起了严重的环境正义问题，并对国家气候适应能力构成了障碍。虽然横断面设计限制了因果推理，但越来越多的证据表明，系统性差异需要通过分阶段改革进行紧急政策干预，解决基础设施、教师能力和结构性不平等问题。

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引用次数: 0

Climate-adaptive prediction of wind erosion risks for earthen heritage under multi-scenario futures 未来多情景下土质遗产风蚀风险的气候适应性预测

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100763

Qiong Wang , Jun Xiao , Anrong Dang , Xiuyun Xu , Jingxiong Huang , Ruihua Zhang

Earthen heritage sites are vital components of global cultural assets, yet face intensifying wind erosion driven by more frequent extreme wind events. Accurate erosion prediction is critical to preserve structural integrity and guide climate-adaptive management under UNESCO’s climate action framework. However, current methods rely on simplified geometry models or limited wind simulations, producing insufficient spatial resolution and overlooking differential mass loss among components. Temporally, projections based on linear extrapolation from typical years neglect long-term, non-stationary trends. This study developed an integrated prediction framework combining centimeter-scale LiDAR modeling, high-resolution computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and CMIP6 multi-scenario climate data. Applied to the representative Chinese earthen heritage site Xixia Imperial Tombs, the framework produces site-wide risk maps and identifies localized high-risk zones. Results quantify nonlinear erosion responses to wind speed gradients, extending conventional initiation thresholds with acceleration inflection points. Temporal resampling refines wind-speed resolution, producing annual projections of cumulative erosion metrics (mass, depth, volume) through 2100 under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios. The intermediate SSP2–4.5 pathway shows higher interannual variability and greater mean cumulative erosion than the high-forcing SSP5–8.5 scenario, indicating elevated long-term degradation risk under moderate climate forcing. Both scenarios displayed wide uncertainty ranges, suggesting a substantial likelihood of extreme erosion outcomes beyond mean projections. By integrating high-precision simulation with scenario-sensitive climate data, this framework advances predictive modeling of climate-driven hazards in the built environment and supports resilient planning and conservation of earthen heritage in arid regions.

土制遗产是全球文化资产的重要组成部分，但由于极端风事件的频繁发生，土制遗产面临着日益严重的风蚀。准确的侵蚀预测对于保护结构完整性和指导教科文组织气候行动框架下的气候适应性管理至关重要。然而，目前的方法依赖于简化的几何模型或有限的风模拟，产生的空间分辨率不足，并且忽略了组件之间的质量损失差异。在时间上，基于典型年份的线性外推的预测忽略了长期的、非平稳的趋势。本研究开发了一个结合厘米尺度激光雷达建模、高分辨率计算流体动力学（CFD）和CMIP6多情景气候数据的综合预测框架。应用于具有代表性的中国土制文化遗址西夏王陵，该框架生成了全遗址范围的风险地图，并识别了局部的高风险区域。研究结果量化了风速梯度下的非线性侵蚀响应，用加速度拐点扩展了传统的起始阈值。时间重采样改进了风速分辨率，在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下产生到2100年累积侵蚀指标（质量、深度、体积）的年度预估。与高强迫情景SSP5-8.5相比，中等强迫情景SSP2-4.5表现出更高的年际变率和更大的平均累积侵蚀，表明中等气候强迫下长期退化风险升高。这两种情景都显示出很大的不确定性范围，表明极端侵蚀结果超出平均预测的可能性很大。通过将高精度模拟与场景敏感气候数据相结合，该框架推进了建筑环境中气候驱动灾害的预测建模，并支持干旱地区的弹性规划和土遗产保护。

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引用次数: 0