Burden of metabolic diseases, 1990-2023, with forecasts to 2030 for the Asia-Pacific region

Abstract

Background

The latest data release from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 has enabled us to conduct an updated analysis of the trends and burdens of common metabolic diseases/risk factors from 1990 to 2023 in the Asia-Pacific region. We aimed to highlight disparities across geographic regions, over time, and by sex, while incorporating a predictive assessment of future trends through 2030.

Methods

We analyzed estimates of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality for five common metabolic diseases and risk factors in the Asia-Pacific region (type 2 diabetes mellitus [T2DM], high systolic blood pressure [SBP], high body mass index [BMI], high LDL cholesterol, and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease [MASLD]). We also used Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models to project disease burdens through 2030.

Results

In 2023, in Asia-Pacific region, high SBP accounted for the largest burden (~138 million DALYs; 6.27 million deaths), followed by high BMI (~55 million DALYs; 1.33 million deaths), high LDL cholesterol (~53 million DALYs; 2.02 million deaths), T2DM (~49 million DALYs; 1.13 million deaths), and MASLD (~1.26 million DALYs; 47 thousand deaths). From 1990 to 2023, total DALYs increased 1.7- to 3.7- fold, with absolute burdens highest in China, India, and Indonesia, and relative burdens concentrated in Pacific Islands. Projected trends through 2023 suggest that the burden of all metabolic diseases/risk factors, except MASLD, is likely to continue rising, with high SBP remaining the dominant contributor.

Conclusion

Analysis of the GBD 2023 and 2030 projections show that metabolic diseases/risk factors will remain a persistent challenge for the Asia-Pacific region, with substantial increases in DALYs and mortality. These findings call for coordinated, intensified global actions to address interconnected metabolic conditions and can have positive implications for the United Nations' 2030 health-related goals.