Have global value chains shifted?

Abstract

Building on a unified accounting framework for value-added trade, this paper introduces a method for quantifying the paths in global value chains (GVCs) using inter-country input–output tables, which evaluates the indirect linkages between two countries through a third-party intermediary. The GVC path index identifies the “hub-and-spoke” structure within GVC networks and refines the concept of GVC exposure. We apply this index to detect recent shifts in global value chains following the U.S.-China trade war. Our analysis reveals a notable rise in the GVC path from China to Mexico and Vietnam, and subsequently to the U.S. We provide a theoretical justification for the trade rerouting phenomenon and quantify the impact of the U.S.-China trade war on the GVC shifts with a general equilibrium model. Additionally, the GVC paths through which major exporters supply the U.S. market have been redirected away from China subsequent to the trade war.