Early-life local labor market conditions and old-age male mortality: evidence from deindustrialization of New England textile sector.

Abstract

Previous studies document links between early-life exposures and life-cycle outcomes, but fewer examine how local labor market shocks during early life affect old-age male mortality. This article studies this relationship using a large-scale deindustrialization shock: the decline of New England's textile industry during the 1920s and 1930s. Consistent with prior work, we find small effects on migration and limited changes in counties' sociodemographic composition after deindustrialization. Using Social Security Administration death records linked to the 1900-1940 historical censuses and difference-in-differences event studies, we find reduced longevity among men born in highly exposed counties, especially among non-migrant families and those in non-urban areas. The estimates imply intent-to-treat effects of about 3.6 months, while treatment-on-the-treated calculations suggest longevity reductions of about 4.2 years for children of affected families. Using 1950-1960 census data, we also find reductions in schooling, high school completion, and socioeconomic standing.