How to synergize natural resource supply-demand mismatching to allocate the most suitable NbS measures?

Abstract

The application of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) measures can enhance the supply capacity of natural resources and provide essential support for sustainable development. However, NbS planning often lacks a scientific basis that integrates local ecological conditions with socio-economic needs. In response to the ability of different types of NbS to provide a variety of natural resource supply remedies, this study proposed a methodology which is applied to the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) in China, considering four major NbS types (climate-oriented, food-oriented, recreation-oriented, and water-oriented) and five natural resource elements (water, food, climate regulation, recreation, and habitat quality). The methodology follows a structured “where–what–how” framework, in which intervention locations are identified based on supply–demand mismatches, suitable NbS types are selected through functional matching using AHP scoring, and future NbS allocations are predicted via a Dynamic Bayesian Network model that integrates environmental and socio-economic drivers. The results showed that the indicative sites for NbS implementation distributed in a three parallel stripes pattern across the study area, among them, water and food were the two most needed NbS types in the study area, covering up to 80% area of the study area. Combined with the estimated results for 2030, different socio-climatic development pathways lead to changes in the prioritized types of NbS exported by the sites. Our approach can be used to plan decisions for multiple NbS types to provide natural resource supply compensation capacity where it is most needed.