经济学最新文献

We propose a demand-led heterogeneous firm macroeconomic model to study the impact of an exchange rate devaluation on output and financial stability. We simulate the model and find that, in the presence of foreign debt, a devaluation can have contractionary effects. This effect is mediated by the responsiveness of exports to the exchange rate and is attenuated when the traditional trade channel is stronger. Still, the balance sheet effect operates increasing indebtedness and financial instability.

This paper makes two contributions. First, it links a model of structural change and income distribution to a method of decomposing the aggregate labor share into sectoral contributions. Second, it formalizes the interaction between structural change and the labor share using Baumol (1967) and Lewis (1954). The premise is a shift of employment from progressive to stagnant sectors. We find that: stagnant sector labor share dominates distribution under Baumolian assumptions; and, only the Lewis model can deliver a decline in the aggregate labor share for an economy undergoing a reverse-Lewis structural change along the lines of Taylor and Ömer (2019).

This article places the work of Lance Taylor in the broader context of efforts in the 1980s to renew the structuralist tradition of development economics, into what was then newly coined as neo-structuralism. These efforts centred around three groups: CEPAL, Lance Taylor and his team at MIT, and a group of economists based at the Institute of Social Studies in The Hague. The efforts included a strong focus on theoretical modelling, in which Lance Taylor played a leading role, albeit with much tension and debate from within these efforts, especially around whether to accommodate or reject neoclassical microfoundations. Taylor's position was ambiguous in this regard, although he was possibly pushed towards a more explicit heterodox position in the 1990s through the interactions and debates between these three groups in the 1980s.

The impact of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) is analyzed in a closed-economy model with monopolistic competition in banking and where CBDC is an imperfect substitute with bank deposits. The design of CBDC is characterized by its interest rate, its substitutability with bank deposits, and its relative liquidity. We examine how interest-bearing CBDC would affect the banking sector, public finance, GDP, and welfare. Welfare may improve through three channels: seigniorage; a lower opportunity cost of money; and a redistribution away from bank owners. In our numerical analysis, we find a maximum welfare improvement of almost 50 bps in consumption terms.

Under the U.S. personal bankruptcy law, exempt assets are not liquidated following bankruptcy. Entrepreneurs can undo such a protection by posting collateral. We provide a complete characterization of the interplay between asset exemption from liquidation upon default and adverse selection in a competitive credit market. Severe adverse selection induces separation, with safer entrepreneurs choosing loan contracts characterized by high collateral requirements, lower cost of credit, and credit rationing for wealth-constraints applicants. Irrespective of adverse selection, poor safe entrepreneurs pool as they face too much rationing, otherwise. Higher exemption makes collateral more informative. Evidence from the Survey of Small Business Finances survey supports our theory.

A post-Keynesian-Kaleckian model along structuralist lines is developed to incorporate the issue of racial inequality into the analysis of growth and distribution. It draws on ideas presented in the literature about the relationship between class inequality between capitalists and workers, and racial inequality between White and Black workers, including the recent contributions to stratification economics. The model formalizes the dynamics of racial and class inequality to show that racial discrimination can persist in the long run, but various patterns of the evolution of inequality can emerge, including stable equilibria, multiple equilibria and instability. The dynamics is found to depend on whether growth is wage led or profit led, and on how racial inequality affects and is affected by class inequality.

The paper examines the financial balances of the US economy. Government is the main borrower and households and the foreign sector the main lenders. Business net lending is minimal. The balances and their underlying transactions contradict the loanable funds theory and its “global savings glut” variation. Keynes's liquidity preference theory is correct but, in its original formulation, overlooked government and foreign sector flows. The internal finance of business investment aligns with Kalecki's profit equation. The foreign deficit, tied to the dollar's role as a reserve currency, reflects systemic global demand for dollar assets, as explained by Triffin and Minsky.

We study the effects of monetary and fiscal policies when both money and government bonds provide liquidity services. Because money is the unit of account, the price of money is the inverse of the price level. If prices are sticky, so is the price of money in terms of goods, and this is one important reason why money is liquid and attractive. By contrast, the price of government bonds is free to jump and often does, especially in response to news about changes in fiscal policy and the supply of bonds. Those movements in government bond prices affect available liquidity, and therefore aggregate demand, inflation, and output. Under these conditions, bond-financed fiscal expansions can be contractionary, causing deflation and a temporary recession. To avoid those effects, changes in bond supply must be matched by changes in money supply and in the interest rate on money. We conclude that in a liquidity-dependent world, fiscal and monetary policies are joined at the hip.