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Skepticism without scrutiny: Verification and information manipulation 不加审查的怀疑：核实和信息操纵

IF 2 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-09-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113246

Suli Zheng, Bo Wang

An investment boom can coexist with investor skepticism about the claims supporting individual projects. We study investors who can identify an interested insider behind a public report before exercising a risky investment option. Verification improves the investor’s decision and deters manipulation by reducing the capital attracted by a false favorable report. Verification informs privately but disciplines publicly. Investors capture the first benefit but ignore the second, so the market verifies too little. Manipulation raises the private value of verification, making verification choices strategic substitutes and equilibrium unique. With intermediate common costs, scrutiny vanishes and manipulated reports direct capital to bad projects under Bayesian beliefs. Rational skepticism can sustain collective misinvestment when credibility is a public good.

投资热潮可以与投资者对支持个别项目的声明的怀疑共存。我们研究的是那些能够在进行高风险投资选择之前识别出公开报告背后有兴趣的内幕人士的投资者。核实可以改善投资者的决策，并通过减少被虚假有利报告吸引的资金来阻止操纵。验证私下通知，但公开约束。投资者抓住了第一个好处，却忽略了第二个好处，因此市场的验证太少。操纵提高了验证的私有价值，使验证选择具有战略替代和均衡的独特性。有了中间的共同成本，审查就消失了，根据贝叶斯理论，被操纵的报告将资金直接投向了不良项目。当信誉是一种公共利益时，理性怀疑可以维持集体错误投资。

引用次数: 0

The timing fingerprint: A rank-based test of market timing 时机指纹：基于等级的市场时机检验

IF 2 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113280

André A.P. Santos, Lorenzo Pascual Caneiro

Traditional market-timing tests such as the Treynor–Mazuy and Henriksson–Merton tests are known to over-detect timing ability when fat tails and state-dependent volatility are present, and are based on rigid parametric assumptions about the timing payoff. We propose a test of market timing built on the concept of timing fingerprint, a rank-based test that presumes no functional form for the timing payoff and is calibrated to nominal size by a null-imposing wild bootstrap. We show that, while the same bootstrap restores the size of the classical tests, the fingerprint method identifies the direction and location of timing-like behavior across the entire benchmark distribution and is substantially more powerful against timing payoffs the classical tests do not span. We assess the finite-sample performance of the fingerprint test using Monte Carlo simulations and employ it to evaluate a large panel of U.S. equity mutual funds.

传统的市场择时测试，如Treynor-Mazuy和Henriksson-Merton测试，在存在长尾和状态相关波动时，会过度检测择时能力，并且基于对择时收益的严格参数假设。我们提出了一种基于时机指纹概念的市场时机测试，这是一种基于等级的测试，它假设时机回报没有功能形式，并通过施加零的野生引导校准到名义大小。我们表明，虽然相同的引导恢复了经典测试的大小，但指纹方法在整个基准分布中识别了类时间行为的方向和位置，并且在经典测试没有跨越的时间回报方面实际上更强大。我们使用蒙特卡罗模拟来评估指纹测试的有限样本性能，并将其用于评估美国股票共同基金的大型面板。

引用次数: 0

Whose behavior matters? Gender and responses to social information on honesty and generosity 谁的行为重要？性别和对诚实和慷慨社会信息的反应

IF 2 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113301

Haimanti Bhattacharya, Subhasish Dugar

We experimentally examine how social information about a reference group’s honesty and generosity affects prosocial behavior, by recipients’ and reference groups’ genders. We vary reference-group gender (men, women, or unspecified) and majority behavior (80% or 20% prosocial). Women exhibit opportunistic conformity: non-prosocial majorities reduce their prosociality, whereas prosocial majorities have negligible effects, regardless of reference-group gender. Men increase prosociality for female reference groups irrespective of majority behavior, suggesting a desire to outcompete women. For male or unspecified groups, men adjust insignificantly toward the majority, though prosocial and non-prosocial treatments differ significantly. Thus, whose behavior matters depends on who receives it.

我们通过实验研究了参考群体的诚实和慷慨的社会信息如何通过接受者和参考群体的性别影响亲社会行为。我们改变参照组性别（男性、女性或未指明）和大多数行为（80%或20%亲社会）。女性表现出机会主义从众：非亲社会的多数人降低了亲社会的倾向，而亲社会的多数人的影响可以忽略不计，无论参照群体的性别如何。无论大多数人的行为如何，男性对女性参照群体的亲社会倾向都会增加，这表明他们想要超越女性。对于男性或非特定群体，男性对多数的调整不显著，但亲社会和非亲社会的处理差异显著。因此，谁的行为重要取决于谁接受了它。

引用次数: 0

The economics of free bets 免费赌博的经济学

IF 2 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113289

Karl Whelan

Sportsbooks offer promotional “free bets” that return profits if the bets win, but not the stake provided. These bets can be hedged to produce guaranteed profits. This paper shows how to value the guaranteed profit from these stake-not-returned free bets under a simple constant-margin pricing rule in which sportsbooks, on average, keep a fraction

m

of the money staked. The guaranteed hedged value is a nonlinear function of the free bet’s probability of winning, reaching a maximum when this probability is

\sqrt{m (1 - m)}

. Empirical evidence from odds on tennis bets confirms this prediction.

体育博彩公司提供促销性的“免费投注”，如果投注赢了，就返还利润，但不返还所提供的赌注。这些押注可以对冲以保证利润。本文展示了如何在一个简单的恒定保证金定价规则下评估这些下注不回报的免费赌注的保证利润，在这个规则下，体育博彩公司平均只保留赌注的一小部分。保证的对冲值是自由下注获胜概率的非线性函数，当该概率为m（1 - m）时达到最大值。来自网球投注赔率的经验证据证实了这一预测。

引用次数: 0

Threshold HAR model for interval-valued time series 区间值时间序列的阈值HAR模型

IF 2 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113262

Changryong Baek, Chihoon Lee, Seungwon Lee

We propose a threshold heterogeneous autoregressive model for interval-valued time series (THARI). Building on the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) framework, THARI combines threshold interval autoregression with daily, weekly, and monthly aggregation, allowing multi-horizon interval dynamics to vary across regimes. Estimation uses minimum-

D_{K}

distance with a feasible positive-definite kernel update. For fixed and feasible kernels, the threshold estimator is

T

-consistent and the regression estimator is

\sqrt{T}

-consistent. For Ethereum intervals constructed from the 50th and 95th quantiles of 5-minute intraday squared returns, THARI improves

D_{K}^{2}

forecasts over TARI(3), while comparison with a non-threshold interval HAR benchmark identifies horizon-dependent threshold gains.

我们提出了一个区间值时间序列（THARI）的阈值异质自回归模型。在异构自回归（HAR）框架的基础上，THARI将阈值区间自回归与每日、每周和每月的聚合相结合，允许多水平区间动态在不同制度下变化。估计使用最小dk距离和可行的正定内核更新。对于固定可行核，阈值估计量是t一致的，回归估计量是t一致的。对于由5分钟日内平方回报的第50和第95分位数构建的以太坊区间，THARI比TARI(3)改进了DK2预测，而与非阈值区间HAR基准的比较确定了依赖于水平的阈值收益。

引用次数: 0

Participation and revelation in the KitaMatch clearinghouse kitmatch清算所的参与和启示

IF 2 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113290

Gian Caspari, Manshu Khanna

Private childcare providers in Germany generally cannot be compelled to join municipal clearinghouses, so participation is a binding design constraint. Germany’s first childcare clearinghouse, KitaMatch, runs provider-proposing deferred acceptance (KDA). This paper provides a rationale for that choice based on providers’ participation incentives. Providers hold incomplete priorities, which a public ranking completes subject to provider autonomy: the ranking may resolve comparisons a provider leaves open but may not reverse its strict priorities or alter its acceptable set. Under this refinement, KDA gives each provider its best stable assignment, and its transcript of proposals and rejections certifies which top-priority families are stably enrollable. Participation is robust to any aftermarket that settles on a stable outcome, and the guarantee does not rest on the public tie-breaking.

德国的私人托儿机构通常不能被迫加入市政清算所，因此参与是一种具有约束力的设计约束。德国第一家托儿信息交换中心kitmatch运营着供应商提议延期接受（KDA）。本文基于供应商的参与激励为这种选择提供了理论依据。提供者拥有不完整的优先级，公共排名根据提供者的自主性完成：排名可以解决提供者开放的比较，但可能不会逆转其严格的优先级或改变其可接受的设置。在此改进下，KDA为每个提供者提供最佳的稳定分配，其建议和拒绝的记录证明了哪些优先级家庭是稳定可招生的。对于任何达成稳定结果的售后市场来说，参与都是强有力的，而且保证不依赖于公开打破平局。

引用次数: 0

What does sovereign borrowing signal? 主权债务发出了什么信号？

IF 2 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113298

Yang K. Lu, Bowen Qu

We assess the relative importance of three common sources of government private information in asymmetric-information models of sovereign debt: time preference, default costs, and future economic fundamentals. We develop a parsimonious signaling model that nests all three information structures and show that only private information about future fundamentals can generate a state-dependent signaling effect of sovereign borrowing on default risk. More borrowing signals stronger fundamentals when public repayment conditions are favorable, but weaker fundamentals when they are unfavorable.

我们评估了主权债务不对称信息模型中三个常见的政府私人信息来源的相对重要性：时间偏好、违约成本和未来经济基本面。我们开发了一个包含所有三种信息结构的简约信号模型，并表明只有关于未来基本面的私人信息才能产生主权借款对违约风险的状态依赖信号效应。当公共偿还条件有利时，更多的借贷表明基本面较强，但当公共偿还条件不利时，基本面较弱。

引用次数: 0

Optimal unemployment insurance under statistical profiling 统计分析下的最优失业保险

IF 2 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113261

Sergio Cappellini, Sofía Ruiz-Palazuelos

How should unemployment insurance (UI) be designed? We characterize the optimal contract when employability is statistically assessed at the beginning of a claim and progressively revised based on elapsed job search duration. In our setting, workers can manipulate future assessments through current search behavior, generating endogenous learning rents that must be compensated to sustain search effort. We show that these rents increase with unemployment duration and UI generosity, raising the relative attractiveness of search monitoring and assistance. Ignoring learning rents may therefore lead to insufficient search incentives, lower job-finding rates, and biased estimates of the returns to search-incentivizing programs.

失业保险应该如何设计？当就业能力在索赔开始时进行统计评估并根据经过的求职持续时间逐步修订时，我们描述了最优合同。在我们的环境中，员工可以通过当前的搜索行为操纵未来的评估，产生内生的学习租金，必须补偿以维持搜索努力。我们的研究表明，这些租金随着失业持续时间和UI慷慨度的增加而增加，从而提高了搜索监控和援助的相对吸引力。因此，忽视学习租金可能会导致求职动机不足，求职率降低，以及对求职激励计划回报的估计有偏差。

引用次数: 0

Confidence at the long end: Central-bank satisfaction and household inflation expectations 长期信心：央行满意度和家庭通胀预期

IF 2 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113265

Martin Meier

Using 252,993 responses from the Bank of England Inflation Attitudes Survey, this paper examines the relationship between central-bank confidence, the term structure of inflation expectations, and forecast accuracy. Dissatisfied households show stronger pass-through from perceived inflation to medium- and long-term expectations. Among respondents in the same wave and current-inflation and one-year-expectation categories, their five-year expectations remain 0.37 percentage points higher. A Shapley decomposition leaves 40% of the five-year gap unexplained by those beliefs. Dissatisfied households make larger five-year forecast errors under midpoint and interval-consistent coding. The evidence is consistent with weaker long-term anchoring rather than more accurate pessimism.

本文利用来自英格兰银行通胀态度调查的252,993份回复，检验了央行信心、通胀预期期限结构和预测准确性之间的关系。不满意的家庭表现出更强的从中长期预期的通货膨胀传导。在同一波、当前通胀和1年预期类别的受访者中，他们的5年预期仍高出0.37个百分点。根据沙普利分解法，这五年的差距中有40%无法解释。不满意的家庭在中点和区间一致编码下的五年预测误差更大。有证据表明，长期锚定效应较弱，而不是更为准确的悲观情绪。

引用次数: 0

Exact inference after data-driven control-unit selection in difference-in-differences 差中差中数据驱动控制单元选择后的精确推理

IF 2 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113243

Ryoya Nakano, Takahiro Hoshino

In comparative case studies that select a single control using a centered pre-treatment fit criterion, researchers report a difference-in-differences interval treating the selection as fixed. Under a Gaussian panel model with known covariance, a centered criterion yields exact naive intervals when the covariance is separable with a spherical time factor, for any cross-sectional covariance. Otherwise, given the selection and an independent residual, the estimator is truncated normal; the pivot yields exact selective coverage. In our simulations, naive coverage was often conservative and never materially below nominal; working-model plug-in inference exhibited modest undercoverage under strong serial correlation.

在使用中心预处理拟合标准选择单个对照的比较案例研究中，研究人员报告了将选择视为固定的差异中差区间。在具有已知协方差的高斯面板模型下，当协方差与球形时间因子可分离时，对于任何横截面协方差，中心准则产生精确的原始区间。否则，给定选择和独立残差，估计量被截断正态；支点产生精确的选择性覆盖。在我们的模拟中，天真覆盖率通常是保守的，从未实质性低于名义覆盖率；工作模型插件推理在强序列相关性下表现出适度的欠覆盖率。

引用次数: 0

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