Farmers' adoption of climate change mitigation practices is crucial for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from food production. One major source of these emissions is chemical fertilizer application. Introducing clover into grassland can mitigate emissions by reducing the need for chemical fertilizers. In this study, we conduct an information experiment with over 300 Irish dairy farmers to examine how information impacts their beliefs about clover adoption, and how this in turn influences subsequent intentions. Methodologically, we contribute to the literature by combining qualitative (i.e., open‐ended questions) and quantitative (i.e., point estimates) belief elicitation measures in our experimental design. This approach provides more detailed insights into farmers' beliefs, as it captures top‐of‐mind concerns without priming responses. Our qualitative belief elicitation reveals that after exposure to the information treatments, while most farmers did not change their opinions, some shifted from concerns such as ‘ bloat ’ and ‘ difficult ’ to terms like ‘ reduction ’ and ‘ possible ’. Our quantitative measures show that farmers underestimated clover's potential to reduce chemical fertilizer use. This finding is key for policymakers, as similar underestimations may apply to other GHG mitigation practices. Importantly, we provide causal evidence that information could reduce misperceptions. This highlights the need for strategies that positively shift beliefs to encourage more widespread uptake of climate change mitigation practices. Nonetheless, there was no meaningful impact of the updated beliefs on intentions, which underlines the complexity of adoption decisions.
{"title":"Farmers' Beliefs About Climate Action: Evidence From an Information Experiment","authors":"Felipe Aguiar‐Noury, Doris Läpple, Cathal Buckley","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.70039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.70039","url":null,"abstract":"Farmers' adoption of climate change mitigation practices is crucial for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from food production. One major source of these emissions is chemical fertilizer application. Introducing clover into grassland can mitigate emissions by reducing the need for chemical fertilizers. In this study, we conduct an information experiment with over 300 Irish dairy farmers to examine how information impacts their beliefs about clover adoption, and how this in turn influences subsequent intentions. Methodologically, we contribute to the literature by combining qualitative (i.e., open‐ended questions) and quantitative (i.e., point estimates) belief elicitation measures in our experimental design. This approach provides more detailed insights into farmers' beliefs, as it captures top‐of‐mind concerns without priming responses. Our qualitative belief elicitation reveals that after exposure to the information treatments, while most farmers did not change their opinions, some shifted from concerns such as ‘ <jats:italic>bloat</jats:italic> ’ and ‘ <jats:italic>difficult</jats:italic> ’ to terms like ‘ <jats:italic>reduction</jats:italic> ’ and ‘ <jats:italic>possible</jats:italic> ’. Our quantitative measures show that farmers underestimated clover's potential to reduce chemical fertilizer use. This finding is key for policymakers, as similar underestimations may apply to other GHG mitigation practices. Importantly, we provide causal evidence that information could reduce misperceptions. This highlights the need for strategies that positively shift beliefs to encourage more widespread uptake of climate change mitigation practices. Nonetheless, there was no meaningful impact of the updated beliefs on intentions, which underlines the complexity of adoption decisions.","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"426 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147751750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Important developments in infrastructure and institutions characterized 19th‐Century wheat markets in Great Britain. Among these developments was the construction of the national rail system which enabled cheaper and more efficient transport of grain and other bulky cargoes between inland towns and ports. We consider the degree to which wheat markets in twelve British cities were spatially integrated over the nineteenth century by applying conventional threshold models and semi‐nonparametric (generalized additive) models of spatial price linkages. Although results concerning market integration are qualitatively similar, the semi‐nonparametric models capture important nonlinearities that may be missed by conventional threshold models. Both approaches support a high degree of integration among the spatially distinct markets. We then consider two sub‐samples from 1800–1840 and 1870–1913 to capture price transmission before and after the repeal of the Corn Laws, the development of the railway system, the improvement of steam engines for ocean transport, and the introduction of the telegraph system. The nonlinear models suggest faster equilibration in response to large shocks and tighter transaction cost bands in the second period.
{"title":"Market Integration and Nonlinear Price Transmission in 19th‐Century British Wheat Markets","authors":"Barry K. Goodwin, A. Ford Ramsey","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.70046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.70046","url":null,"abstract":"Important developments in infrastructure and institutions characterized 19th‐Century wheat markets in Great Britain. Among these developments was the construction of the national rail system which enabled cheaper and more efficient transport of grain and other bulky cargoes between inland towns and ports. We consider the degree to which wheat markets in twelve British cities were spatially integrated over the nineteenth century by applying conventional threshold models and semi‐nonparametric (generalized additive) models of spatial price linkages. Although results concerning market integration are qualitatively similar, the semi‐nonparametric models capture important nonlinearities that may be missed by conventional threshold models. Both approaches support a high degree of integration among the spatially distinct markets. We then consider two sub‐samples from 1800–1840 and 1870–1913 to capture price transmission before and after the repeal of the Corn Laws, the development of the railway system, the improvement of steam engines for ocean transport, and the introduction of the telegraph system. The nonlinear models suggest faster equilibration in response to large shocks and tighter transaction cost bands in the second period.","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147743781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Recent trade policy developments have renewed concerns about the vulnerability of agri‐food markets to tariff increases. This paper quantifies the effects of 2025 US tariff hikes and potential tit‐for‐tat retaliation on agri‐food trade, prices, output, and welfare. We employ a sectoral general‐equilibrium gravity model covering 46 agri‐food industries on a 2023 baseline. The framework combines product‐level trade elasticities with sector‐specific supply elasticities based on input‐cost shares, providing a transparent mapping from tariffs to equilibrium outcomes. We simulate the April 2, 2025 (‘Liberation Day’) tariff schedule and the July 31, 2025 revisions, each with and without symmetric retaliation by all trading partners. Without retaliation, US agri‐food exports fall by 22%–25%, output declines by about 3%, the price index rises by 6.8%–7.2%, and welfare falls by 4.4%–4.9%. With retaliation, export losses deepen to 37%–43%, output drops by 4%–5%, the price index rises by 2%–5%, and welfare declines by 6.9%–7.9%. Welfare losses are highly asymmetric: Canada and Mexico experience the largest additional losses under retaliation, reflecting integrated North American supply chains, while contractions are concentrated in processed meats, soybeans, corn, and selected food products. Retaliation amplifies global welfare losses rather than offsetting them, suggesting that cooperative policy restraint yields smaller welfare costs for the United States and its major trading partners.
{"title":"Trading Blows, Losing Bushels: Global Implications of US Tariff Hikes for Agri‐Food Trade and Welfare","authors":"Carlos Zurita, Dongin Kim, Sandro Steinbach","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.70048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.70048","url":null,"abstract":"Recent trade policy developments have renewed concerns about the vulnerability of agri‐food markets to tariff increases. This paper quantifies the effects of 2025 US tariff hikes and potential tit‐for‐tat retaliation on agri‐food trade, prices, output, and welfare. We employ a sectoral general‐equilibrium gravity model covering 46 agri‐food industries on a 2023 baseline. The framework combines product‐level trade elasticities with sector‐specific supply elasticities based on input‐cost shares, providing a transparent mapping from tariffs to equilibrium outcomes. We simulate the April 2, 2025 (‘Liberation Day’) tariff schedule and the July 31, 2025 revisions, each with and without symmetric retaliation by all trading partners. Without retaliation, US agri‐food exports fall by 22%–25%, output declines by about 3%, the price index rises by 6.8%–7.2%, and welfare falls by 4.4%–4.9%. With retaliation, export losses deepen to 37%–43%, output drops by 4%–5%, the price index rises by 2%–5%, and welfare declines by 6.9%–7.9%. Welfare losses are highly asymmetric: Canada and Mexico experience the largest additional losses under retaliation, reflecting integrated North American supply chains, while contractions are concentrated in processed meats, soybeans, corn, and selected food products. Retaliation amplifies global welfare losses rather than offsetting them, suggesting that cooperative policy restraint yields smaller welfare costs for the United States and its major trading partners.","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147743778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Thomas Rellensmann, Stefanie Engel, Jens Rommel, Fabian Thomas
Linking payments from agri‐environment schemes to ecological results or to collective outcomes is viewed as a promising way to increase the effectiveness of agri‐environmental conservation. However, the two approaches are rarely combined. In this study, we test the performance of result‐based payments with collective contracts in a contextualised economic experiment with 540 non‐agricultural and agricultural students in Germany. Combining result‐based payments with collective contracts may hold potential by allowing farmers to share the risks associated with result‐based payments within a group. A downside of collective contracts, however, is the creation of a social dilemma, as individual payments depend on group outcomes. We find no evidence of differences in conservation levels under result‐based payments with collective as compared to individual contracts, suggesting that risk‐sharing benefits and effects of the social dilemma offset each other. We further examine the performance of collective contracts for varying risk levels that could, for example, reflect different geological and climatic conditions across Europe. Result‐based payments with collective contracts motivate higher conservation efforts in our experiment when external risks are high. Further, high risks appear to foster group cooperation under collective contracts, potentially leading to more equitable and predictable outcomes.
{"title":"Collective Contracts as a Risk‐Sharing Mechanism for Result‐Based Agri‐Environmental Payments: Experimental Evidence","authors":"Thomas Rellensmann, Stefanie Engel, Jens Rommel, Fabian Thomas","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.70034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.70034","url":null,"abstract":"Linking payments from agri‐environment schemes to ecological results or to collective outcomes is viewed as a promising way to increase the effectiveness of agri‐environmental conservation. However, the two approaches are rarely combined. In this study, we test the performance of result‐based payments with collective contracts in a contextualised economic experiment with 540 non‐agricultural and agricultural students in Germany. Combining result‐based payments with collective contracts may hold potential by allowing farmers to share the risks associated with result‐based payments within a group. A downside of collective contracts, however, is the creation of a social dilemma, as individual payments depend on group outcomes. We find no evidence of differences in conservation levels under result‐based payments with collective as compared to individual contracts, suggesting that risk‐sharing benefits and effects of the social dilemma offset each other. We further examine the performance of collective contracts for varying risk levels that could, for example, reflect different geological and climatic conditions across Europe. Result‐based payments with collective contracts motivate higher conservation efforts in our experiment when external risks are high. Further, high risks appear to foster group cooperation under collective contracts, potentially leading to more equitable and predictable outcomes.","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147743833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Santiago Guerrero, Laure Kuhfuss, José Ignacio Rivero‐Wildemauwe, Patricia Correa, Miguel Carriquiry, Francisco Rosas, José Velazco
We use a discrete choice experiment along with behavioral measures of risk and time preferences to analyze the preferences of Uruguayan cattle producers for three types of sustainable livestock practices: improved grazing systems, sustainable livestock management, and silvopastoral approaches. The results indicate that, on average, producers favor sustainable intensification, are indifferent to improved grazing practices, and require monetary compensation to adopt silvopastoral systems. A latent class model reveals significant preference heterogeneity, identifying two distinct producer profiles: one inclined to adopt the proposed practices and another that requires stronger incentives. These findings underscore the importance of designing differentiated policy instruments tailored to the characteristics and motivations of diverse producer types.
{"title":"Preferences for Sustainable Production Practices in Extensive Livestock Systems in Uruguay","authors":"Santiago Guerrero, Laure Kuhfuss, José Ignacio Rivero‐Wildemauwe, Patricia Correa, Miguel Carriquiry, Francisco Rosas, José Velazco","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.70045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.70045","url":null,"abstract":"We use a discrete choice experiment along with behavioral measures of risk and time preferences to analyze the preferences of Uruguayan cattle producers for three types of sustainable livestock practices: improved grazing systems, sustainable livestock management, and silvopastoral approaches. The results indicate that, on average, producers favor sustainable intensification, are indifferent to improved grazing practices, and require monetary compensation to adopt silvopastoral systems. A latent class model reveals significant preference heterogeneity, identifying two distinct producer profiles: one inclined to adopt the proposed practices and another that requires stronger incentives. These findings underscore the importance of designing differentiated policy instruments tailored to the characteristics and motivations of diverse producer types.","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147743779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The foods that consumers purchase and how they purchase food are changing over time. In this article, we discuss how health prioritization and environmental concerns, combined with new technologies, are changing consumers' food preferences and retail choices. Wellness trends have increased attention to functional attributes and specific nutrients such as protein, while intensifying scrutiny of ultra‐processed foods. Adoption of personalized technologies, including prescription medications, wearable devices and diet‐tracking apps, may alter the volume and composition of food consumed. Many consumers are also willing to pay a premium for sustainability claims, but may conflate environmental standards and healthfulness, which raises questions about credibility and effective labeling design. All of these considerations may be impacted by affordability concerns following a period of supply‐chain disruptions and disease outbreaks since 2020, causing food price inflation. This, combined with increasing income inequality, has resulted in a bifurcation of demand between value and premium consumer segments. Preferences are further separated by the channel consumers use to purchase food, as many households still purchase groceries online and order meals for delivery after the COVID‐19 pandemic. The availability of highly detailed consumer purchasing and health data allows for compelling future research on the causal relationships that arise from these trends, which will continue to shape the global food environment.
{"title":"How Changing Food Preferences and Technology Are Transforming Food Markets","authors":"Jill J. McCluskey, Jillian Hyink","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.70044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.70044","url":null,"abstract":"The foods that consumers purchase and how they purchase food are changing over time. In this article, we discuss how health prioritization and environmental concerns, combined with new technologies, are changing consumers' food preferences and retail choices. Wellness trends have increased attention to functional attributes and specific nutrients such as protein, while intensifying scrutiny of ultra‐processed foods. Adoption of personalized technologies, including prescription medications, wearable devices and diet‐tracking apps, may alter the volume and composition of food consumed. Many consumers are also willing to pay a premium for sustainability claims, but may conflate environmental standards and healthfulness, which raises questions about credibility and effective labeling design. All of these considerations may be impacted by affordability concerns following a period of supply‐chain disruptions and disease outbreaks since 2020, causing food price inflation. This, combined with increasing income inequality, has resulted in a bifurcation of demand between value and premium consumer segments. Preferences are further separated by the channel consumers use to purchase food, as many households still purchase groceries online and order meals for delivery after the COVID‐19 pandemic. The availability of highly detailed consumer purchasing and health data allows for compelling future research on the causal relationships that arise from these trends, which will continue to shape the global food environment.","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147695751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kelvin Mulungu, Mitelo Subakanya, Peter Setimela, Akpo Essegbemon, Walter Chivasa, James Gethi, Mazvita Chiduwa, Jeremiah Sigalla, Henry‐Hussein Mvungi, Hambulo Ngoma
Small seed packs for demonstration and testing are widely used to stimulate the uptake of improved crop varieties, yet evidence on their effectiveness remains mixed. This study examines whether small seed packs distributed either for free or at a subsidised price enhance farmers' knowledge and subsequent adoption of improved legumes, drought‐tolerant maize, and improved traditional African vegetables in Tanzania and Zambia. Drawing on mobile phone survey data and applying entropy balancing alongside machine‐learning methods to address selection bias, we find consistent evidence that seed packs increase both technical knowledge and adoption of these crops. Knowledge gains are strongest for crops with limited prior exposure, while improvements for familiar crops such as drought‐tolerant maize likely reflect experiential learning rather than new information. Adoption effects are positive across all crops and robust to alternative estimation strategies. Overall, the results indicate that small seed packs can serve as an effective demand‐creation tool, particularly in settings where farmers face information gaps or uncertainty about the performance of improved germplasm.
{"title":"Small Seed Packs, Big Potential? Effect of Seed Packs on Knowledge and Adoption of Improved Crop Varieties","authors":"Kelvin Mulungu, Mitelo Subakanya, Peter Setimela, Akpo Essegbemon, Walter Chivasa, James Gethi, Mazvita Chiduwa, Jeremiah Sigalla, Henry‐Hussein Mvungi, Hambulo Ngoma","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.70040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.70040","url":null,"abstract":"Small seed packs for demonstration and testing are widely used to stimulate the uptake of improved crop varieties, yet evidence on their effectiveness remains mixed. This study examines whether small seed packs distributed either for free or at a subsidised price enhance farmers' knowledge and subsequent adoption of improved legumes, drought‐tolerant maize, and improved traditional African vegetables in Tanzania and Zambia. Drawing on mobile phone survey data and applying entropy balancing alongside machine‐learning methods to address selection bias, we find consistent evidence that seed packs increase both technical knowledge and adoption of these crops. Knowledge gains are strongest for crops with limited prior exposure, while improvements for familiar crops such as drought‐tolerant maize likely reflect experiential learning rather than new information. Adoption effects are positive across all crops and robust to alternative estimation strategies. Overall, the results indicate that small seed packs can serve as an effective demand‐creation tool, particularly in settings where farmers face information gaps or uncertainty about the performance of improved germplasm.","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147695753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Agricultural production and the food supply chain have a significant impact on the environment. To foster an environmentally sustainable food system, it is vital to change consumers' food choice patterns to be more environmentally sustainable. This study presents a concept ladder , a simplified model under which consumers may be at different stages in terms of their willingness and ability to make environmentally sustainable food choices: some may have little concern, others may have more concern but require the impetus of broader social norms to modify their choices, while a final group may have strong concern but in some cases be unable to exercise their preferences because of financial or other constraints. To empirically test this concept, we conducted a large‐scale randomised experiment involving Japanese consumers through two online surveys. In the first survey, respondents were randomly separated into three groups and provided with either environmental issue information (T1), social norm information (T2) or no information (Control). Two weeks later, a follow‐up survey was conducted to compare the actual environmental sustainability of food choice behaviours among the groups. The results show that the treatment effect of T1 is the largest for those with a low level of environmental concern, while the treatment effect of T2 is the largest for those with a moderate level of environmental concern, consistent with the ladder concept. Several robustness checks support these findings.
{"title":"Environmental Information or Social Norm? A Ladder Toward Environmentally Sustainable Food Choices","authors":"Ryosuke Inoue, Kentaro Kawasaki","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.70043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.70043","url":null,"abstract":"Agricultural production and the food supply chain have a significant impact on the environment. To foster an environmentally sustainable food system, it is vital to change consumers' food choice patterns to be more environmentally sustainable. This study presents a concept <jats:italic>ladder</jats:italic> , a simplified model under which consumers may be at different stages in terms of their willingness and ability to make environmentally sustainable food choices: some may have little concern, others may have more concern but require the impetus of broader social norms to modify their choices, while a final group may have strong concern but in some cases be unable to exercise their preferences because of financial or other constraints. To empirically test this concept, we conducted a large‐scale randomised experiment involving Japanese consumers through two online surveys. In the first survey, respondents were randomly separated into three groups and provided with either environmental issue information (T1), social norm information (T2) or no information (Control). Two weeks later, a follow‐up survey was conducted to compare the actual environmental sustainability of food choice behaviours among the groups. The results show that the treatment effect of T1 is the largest for those with a low level of environmental concern, while the treatment effect of T2 is the largest for those with a moderate level of environmental concern, consistent with the ladder concept. Several robustness checks support these findings.","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147586729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Shengyi Du, Katsuya Tanaka, Hiroki Sasaki, Tetsuya Horie, Shinya Horie
Agricultural methane emissions represent a significant contributor to global climate change, with irrigated rice cultivation being one of the primary sources. Despite the availability of effective mitigation technologies, their adoption often remains limited due to behavioural and institutional constraints. Water management practice that extends drainage periods during cultivation can curb methane emissions from irrigated rice at low cost, yet uptake among Japanese farmers remains modest. We surveyed 2219 rice producers in Shiga Prefecture using a labelled choice experiment that embedded two behavioural nudges (social norm and loss aversion) and one informational boost (knowledge enhancement), presented with or without a reminder. Farmers most favoured a 7‐day drainage extension. Social‐norm messages did not robustly shift adoption intentions, but loss‐aversion and knowledge enhancement paired with reminders increased the probability of choosing water management practice by 5–10 percentage points, particularly when financial incentives were modest. The added value of nudges and boosts faded once subsidies approached prevailing ceiling levels, suggesting diminishing marginal returns to stacking instruments. These findings suggest that timely, low‐cost behavioural interventions can effectively complement agri‐environmental payments in resource‐constrained settings, providing a scalable and context‐sensitive strategy to accelerate the adoption of climate‐smart rice practices.
{"title":"Promoting Methane Reductions Through Behavioural Nudges and Informational Boosts: A Field Choice Experiment in Japanese Rice Farming","authors":"Shengyi Du, Katsuya Tanaka, Hiroki Sasaki, Tetsuya Horie, Shinya Horie","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.70038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.70038","url":null,"abstract":"Agricultural methane emissions represent a significant contributor to global climate change, with irrigated rice cultivation being one of the primary sources. Despite the availability of effective mitigation technologies, their adoption often remains limited due to behavioural and institutional constraints. Water management practice that extends drainage periods during cultivation can curb methane emissions from irrigated rice at low cost, yet uptake among Japanese farmers remains modest. We surveyed 2219 rice producers in Shiga Prefecture using a labelled choice experiment that embedded two behavioural nudges (social norm and loss aversion) and one informational boost (knowledge enhancement), presented with or without a reminder. Farmers most favoured a 7‐day drainage extension. Social‐norm messages did not robustly shift adoption intentions, but loss‐aversion and knowledge enhancement paired with reminders increased the probability of choosing water management practice by 5–10 percentage points, particularly when financial incentives were modest. The added value of nudges and boosts faded once subsidies approached prevailing ceiling levels, suggesting diminishing marginal returns to stacking instruments. These findings suggest that timely, low‐cost behavioural interventions can effectively complement agri‐environmental payments in resource‐constrained settings, providing a scalable and context‐sensitive strategy to accelerate the adoption of climate‐smart rice practices.","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147586730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Huong Nguyen, Bradford Mills, Chi Ta, Shamar L. Stewart
Rising sea levels and salinity intrusion increasingly threaten rice farming in Vietnam's Mekong Delta. Using a district‐level panel dataset from 2000 to 2020, this study examines the impacts of salinity on Winter–Spring rice yields and acreage and how farmers adapt to salinity risk. A Nerlovian adaptive expectations model is applied to assess how past exposure influences land‐use decisions. Results show that extreme salinity events exert a stronger and more persistent effect on acreage adjustments than year‐to‐year fluctuations, with reductions most pronounced in salinity‐prone and coastal districts. Spatial heterogeneity underscores the need for location‐specific strategies: infrastructure and salt‐tolerant varieties for inland areas, and support for transitions to alternative land uses in highly exposed regions. Evidence of complementarities between rice and aquaculture suggests integrated systems can sustain production under moderate salinity pressure. These findings highlight the importance of tailored interventions to enhance resilience as salinity intrusion intensifies with sea‐level rise.
{"title":"Rising Tides, Falling Harvests: Examining the Effects of Salinity Intrusion on Paddy Production in Vietnam's Mekong Delta","authors":"Huong Nguyen, Bradford Mills, Chi Ta, Shamar L. Stewart","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.70042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.70042","url":null,"abstract":"Rising sea levels and salinity intrusion increasingly threaten rice farming in Vietnam's Mekong Delta. Using a district‐level panel dataset from 2000 to 2020, this study examines the impacts of salinity on Winter–Spring rice yields and acreage and how farmers adapt to salinity risk. A Nerlovian adaptive expectations model is applied to assess how past exposure influences land‐use decisions. Results show that extreme salinity events exert a stronger and more persistent effect on acreage adjustments than year‐to‐year fluctuations, with reductions most pronounced in salinity‐prone and coastal districts. Spatial heterogeneity underscores the need for location‐specific strategies: infrastructure and salt‐tolerant varieties for inland areas, and support for transitions to alternative land uses in highly exposed regions. Evidence of complementarities between rice and aquaculture suggests integrated systems can sustain production under moderate salinity pressure. These findings highlight the importance of tailored interventions to enhance resilience as salinity intrusion intensifies with sea‐level rise.","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"297 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147536458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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