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Prediction of Fire Occurrences Based on Multi-layer Perceptron Using Social Indicators 利用社会指标,基于多层感知器预测火灾发生率
Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.7731/kifse.9ccb98be
Chu Zhang, Won-Hwa Hong, Young-Hoon Bae
To analyze the impact of urban socioeconomic and demographic factors on fire occurrences and predict fire occurrences according to each factor, this study analyzed the correlation between “Korean social indicators” and fire occurrences. Based on this, a fire prediction model was built based on multi-layer perceptron (MLP). For this purpose, data on social indicators and the number of fires by city, county, and district from 2015 to 2022 were collected, and the correlation between social indicators and fire occurrences were analyzed. Based on the correlation analysis results, two models were built to predict fires using 15 factors (Model 1) and 5 factors (Model 2). The mean absolute percentage error of the models were 26.37% (Model 1) and 30.92% (Model 2), confirming the usability of the fire prediction model based on the multi-layer perceptron using social indicators.
为了分析城市社会经济和人口因素对火灾发生的影响,并根据各因素预测火灾发生率,本研究分析了 "韩国社会指标 "与火灾发生率之间的相关性。在此基础上,建立了基于多层感知器(MLP)的火灾预测模型。为此,收集了 2015 年至 2022 年各市、郡、区的社会指标和火灾数量数据,并分析了社会指标与火灾发生率之间的相关性。根据相关性分析结果,建立了使用 15 个因子(模型 1)和 5 个因子(模型 2)预测火灾的两个模型。模型的平均绝对误差为 26.37%(模型 1)和 30.92%(模型 2),证实了基于社会指标的多层感知器火灾预测模型的可用性。
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引用次数: 0
The Effect of Household Composition on Fire Coping Capacity and Fire Damage 家庭组成对火灾应对能力和火灾损失的影响
Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.7731/kifse.76230382
Chu Zhang, Won-Hwa Hong, Young-Hoon Bae
In this study, to conduct a comprehensive fire risk assessment (FRA) considering the fire coping capacity (FCC) of individuals and communities, we analyzed the FCC based on household composition, a factor influencing FCC, through a survey. Statistical analysis was employed to examine the impact of household composition on fire damage with the aim of proposing the feasibility of an FRA incorporating FCC. The survey results indicated a statistically significant difference in the FCC based on household composition, with a higher individual fire response capability in multi-person households and an elevated community FCC in single-person households. Furthermore, the statistical analysis revealed a positive correlation between the number of single-person households and the occurrence of fire incidents and casualties. In conclusion, this study explored the potential of FCC in FRA by drawing insights from the survey and correlation analysis results.
在本研究中,为了进行全面的火灾风险评估(FRA),考虑到个人和社区的火灾应对能力(FCC),我们通过调查分析了基于家庭组成这一影响 FCC 的因素的 FCC。我们采用统计分析方法研究了家庭组成对火灾损失的影响,旨在提出将家庭应对能力纳入火灾风险评估的可行性。调查结果表明,在统计上,不同家庭组成的 FCC 存在显著差异,多人口家庭的个人火灾响应能力较高,而单人家庭的社区 FCC 较高。此外,统计分析表明,单人家庭的数量与火灾事故的发生和人员伤亡之间存在正相关关系。总之,本研究通过从调查和相关分析结果中汲取启示,探索了火灾应变能力在火灾风险评估中的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of the Mental Health and Social Capital of Firefighters on Quality of Life 消防员的心理健康和社会资本对生活质量的影响
Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.7731/kifse.6961c9d7
Hee-Chul Choi
This study aimed to contribute to the preparation of an action plan for improving the quality of life of firefighters by examining how mental health and social capital as perceived by firefighters affect their quality of life. For this purpose, this study conducted a survey using purposive sampling, targeting 111 firefighting officers in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do. The survey results show that mental health (β = -.475, p < .001) and trust (β = .254, p < .01) and network(β = .248, p < .05) out of the sub-variables of social capital of firefighters have a significant influence on the quality of life. Based on the results, this study suggested various action plans to improve the quality of life of firefighters while supporting their mental health and social capital.
本研究旨在通过研究消防员认为的心理健康和社会资本如何影响他们的生活质量,为制定提高消防员生活质量的行动计划做出贡献。为此,本研究以首尔和京畿道的 111 名消防员为对象,采用目的性抽样进行了调查。调查结果显示,在消防员社会资本的子变量中,心理健康(β = -.475,p < .001)、信任(β = .254,p < .01)和网络(β = .248,p < .05)对生活质量有显著影响。根据研究结果,本研究提出了各种行动计划,以提高消防员的生活质量,同时支持他们的心理健康和社会资本。
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引用次数: 0
A Study on Quantitative Evaluation Methods for Measurement of Disaster Response Robot Operator Proficiency, and Verification of Training Effectiveness using ANOVA 灾难响应机器人操作员能力测量的定量评估方法研究,以及利用方差分析验证培训效果
Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.7731/kifse.bce42a47
Su-han Lee, Seong Jin Yun, Seung-Sub Oh
Recently, as social infrastructure has become more complex, disasters have become large-scale and difficult to predict. Responding to disasters using the existing equipment is challenging because of this complexity. In this situation, the demand for robotic technology to reduce human casualties and respond effectively to disasters is gradually increasing. To increase the field usability of disaster response robots, not only the distribution of robots but also the development of appropriate robot training methods should be conducted in parallel. This study proposes a disaster response robot operator training method and quantitatively verifies its effectiveness. To increase the proficiency of trainees, we propose a training method involving sequential beginner, intermediate, and advanced training stages. To quantitatively verify the effectiveness of the training, the experimental group was divided into three groups: control, general test, and MR test, and the results were confirmed through ANOVA.
近来,随着社会基础设施变得越来越复杂,灾害也变得大规模且难以预测。由于这种复杂性,利用现有设备应对灾害具有挑战性。在这种情况下,减少人员伤亡、有效应对灾害的机器人技术需求逐渐增加。为了提高救灾机器人的现场实用性,不仅要配发机器人,还要同时开发适当的机器人培训方法。本研究提出了一种救灾机器人操作员培训方法,并对其有效性进行了定量验证。为了提高受训者的熟练程度,我们提出了一种培训方法,包括初级、中级和高级的顺序培训阶段。为了定量验证培训效果,实验组被分为三组:对照组、一般测试组和 MR 测试组,并通过方差分析确认了结果。
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引用次数: 0
Study on the Response Characteristics of Smoke Detectors Based on the ISO 7240-7 Smoldering Cotton Fire 基于 ISO 7240-7 燃烧棉花火灾的烟雾探测器响应特性研究
Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.7731/kifse.e9975f8f
Su-Gil Choi, Yool Choi, Si-Kuk Kim
In this study, a smoldering cotton fire test was conducted in accordance with ISO 7240-7 to analyze the smoke/aerosols and combustion products that occur during a cotton fire that are crucial flammable components of multi-unit dwellings. The results of the smoldering cotton fire experiment comparing ODM and ASD based on the concentration standard of 15 %/m, which are the operating concentrations of the fire detection of type-2 smoke detectors, indicated a delay of approximately 2∼4 min in the ASD fire detection time. In addition, in the case of the smoldering fire, the CO concentrations appeared to be 37 ppm and 62 ppm at the ASD1,2 fire detector operating concentrations, resulting in high concentrations of combustion gas. Furthermore, in the case of a smoldering fire rather than a flame fire, despite a large amount of smoke/aerosol and gas owing to incomplete combustion because of the lack of buoyancy, it did not flow into the smoke detector chamber and was not distributed on the ceiling; this required a long time to detect the fire. Accordingly, smoke detector operation tests for various smoke/aerosols must be conducted in Korea to meet the international standards of firefighting technology.
在这项研究中,根据 ISO 7240-7 标准进行了棉花燃烧试验,以分析棉花燃烧时产生的烟雾/气溶胶和燃烧产物,这些烟雾/气溶胶和燃烧产物是多单元住宅的重要易燃成分。棉花燃烧实验的结果比较了 ODM 和 ASD(浓度标准为 15%/m,即 2 型烟雾探测器的火灾探测工作浓度),结果表明 ASD 的火灾探测时间延迟了约 2∼4 分钟。此外,在燃烧的火灾中,ASD1,2 型火灾探测器工作浓度下的 CO 浓度分别为 37 ppm 和 62 ppm,导致燃烧气体浓度较高。此外,在烟火而不是火焰火灾的情况下,尽管由于缺乏浮力而导致燃烧不完全,产生了大量的烟雾/气溶胶和气体,但这些烟雾/气溶胶和气体并没有流入烟雾探测器室,也没有分布在天花板上,因此需要很长时间才能探测到火情。因此,韩国必须对各种烟雾/气溶胶进行烟雾探测器运行测试,以达到国际消防技术标准。
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引用次数: 0
Development of an Education and Training System Based on Augmented Reality to Improve the Firefighting Facility Maintenance Ability of Fire Safety Managers 开发基于增强现实技术的教育和培训系统,提高消防安全管理人员的消防设施维护能力
Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.7731/kifse.577c1ce7
Yool Choi, Si-Kuk Kim
This study grafts fire safety manager education to augmented reality technology to increase the familiarity of fire safety managers with facility inspection and operation based on the automatic fire alarm system that plays the most critical role in early fire situations. To design the education and training content, the Korea Fire Safety Institute, which educates and trains fire safety managers, arranges the training content in the textbooks provided to actual fire safety managers and sets the sequence of operating principles and inspection methods. The purpose is to provide fire safety managers with realistic inspection methods and practice opportunities by implementing them in augmented reality. The education and training program allows learning about automatic fire alarm systems in the following order: structure and operating principles → inspection and practice → assessment. In structure and operating principles, fire safety managers can acquaint themselves with the role of automatic fire alarm systems and facility components and circuit tests according to operation principles. During inspection and practice, at least three inspection methods are learned for each facility. Finally, the assessment refers to the actual evaluation and achievement standards of the Korea Fire Safety Institute, checking a facility in a given mission without guidance or explanation based on the aspects learned in inspection and practice. In addition, it reviews the aspects learned in theory by including a quiz during inspection to improve proficiency by setting it up to be applied in practice.
本研究将消防安全管理人员教育嫁接到增强现实技术中,以提高消防安全管理人员对基于火灾自动报警系统的设施检查和操作的熟悉程度,该系统在早期火灾情况下发挥着最关键的作用。为了设计教育和培训内容,负责教育和培训消防安全管理人员的韩国消防安全研究所在提供给实际消防安全管理人员的教科书中安排了培训内容,并设定了操作原则和检查方法的顺序。目的是通过在增强现实中实施这些方法,为消防安全管理人员提供真实的检查方法和实践机会。该教育和培训计划允许按照以下顺序学习火灾自动报警系统:结构和运行原理 → 检查和实践 → 评估。在结构和运行原理中,消防安全管理人员可以了解火灾自动报警系统的作用,以及根据运行原理进行的设施组件和电路测试。在检查和实践中,每个设施至少要掌握三种检查方法。最后,评估指的是韩国消防安全院的实际评估和成就标准,根据检查和实践中学到的知识,在没有指导或解释的情况下,对特定任务中的设施进行检查。此外,还通过在检查过程中进行小测验来复习理论知识,以便在实际应用中提高熟练程度。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of the Properties of High Strength Lightweight Concrete with High Temperature History 评估具有高温历史的高强度轻质混凝土的性能
Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.7731/kifse.24bac260
Hajun Im, Wonchang Kim, Keesin Jeong, Tae-Gye Lee
In this study, we evaluated the compressive strength and ultrasonic velocity based on the temperature and age of ordinary aggregate and lightweight aggregate concrete (30 and 60 MPa) and examined their correlation. The unit weight and compressive strength of ordinary aggregate and lightweight aggregate concrete were measured to evaluate the mechanical properties and examine the correlation between ultrasonic velocity and compressive strength. The W/B ratio was set at 0.41 and 0.28, and measurements were made at 1, 3, 7, 28, 56, and 91 days. The physical properties were evaluated at 23, 100, 200, 300, 500, and 700 ℃. In all test specimens, compressive strength and ultrasonic speed increased with age; and the higher the temperature, the lower the compressive strength and ultrasonic speed. By analyzing the correlation between ultrasonic velocity and compressive strength, a strength prediction equation in the form of an exponential function was found. Moreover, from the error rate test, we confirmed that the strength prediction equation generally had an error rate of 15% or less.
本研究评估了基于温度和龄期的普通骨料和轻质骨料混凝土(30 和 60 兆帕)的抗压强度和超声波速度,并研究了它们之间的相关性。通过测量普通骨料和轻质骨料混凝土的单位重量和抗压强度来评估其力学性能,并研究超声波速度与抗压强度之间的相关性。W/B 比设定为 0.41 和 0.28,测量时间为 1、3、7、28、56 和 91 天。在 23、100、200、300、500 和 700 ℃ 下对物理特性进行了评估。在所有试样中,抗压强度和超声波速度随着龄期的增加而增加;温度越高,抗压强度和超声波速度越低。通过分析超声波速度与抗压强度之间的相关性,发现了一个指数函数形式的强度预测方程。此外,通过误差率测试,我们证实强度预测方程的误差率一般不超过 15%。
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引用次数: 0
Development of Education and Training Scenarios to Improve the Ability of Fire Safety Managers to Realize Situations and Induce Evacuation in Case of Fire 制定教育和培训方案,提高消防安全管理人员在发生火灾时了解情况和引导疏散的能力
Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.7731/kifse.35f7848f
Yool Choi, Si-Kuk Kim
This study developed an education and training scenario to improve the ability of fire safety managers to recognize situations during a fire and induce evacuation. By reflecting on the characteristics of evacuation facilities and the occupants of multi-occupancy buildings, a scenario similar to that of a real situation was designed through unexpected situations that could occur during actual evacuation induction. Each evacuation facility in the scenario was developed by applying additional methods considering the factors influencing the evacuation in the previous case, referring to Article 4 (1) of the adaptability of evacuation equipment according to the installation location of firefighting objects. The developed scenario was a multi-occupancy building with four basement levels and 50 floors above the ground with a piloti structure and was designed based on the order of evacuation initiation → induction of evacuation → gather at the evacuation site → rescue recipient state report. The details were designed to be applied to practical training by assigning elements that can occur in real situations by causing evacuation using evacuation facilities according to the number of fire floors, assigning situations through various characteristics of occupants, and inserting role conflict elements through unexpected situations. By conducting practical and feasible education for fire safety managers, they can flexibly cope with unexpected situations that may occur in the process of inducing occupants to evacuate in the event of a fire while on duty and improve their skills in using evacuation facilities.
本研究开发了一种教育和培训情景,以提高消防安全管理人员在火灾中识别情况和诱导疏散的能力。通过对疏散设施的特点和多住户建筑的住户进行思考,设计了一个与真实情况类似的场景,通过实际疏散诱导过程中可能发生的意外情况来实现。情景中的每个疏散设施都是根据第 4(1)条 "根据消防对象的安装位置对疏散设备进行调整 "的规定,在考虑了前一个案例中影响疏散的因素后,采用额外的方法开发出来的。所设计的场景是一栋地下四层、地上 50 层的多住户建筑,采用 piloti 结构,设计顺序为开始疏散→诱导疏散→在疏散地点集合→接受救援者状态报告。根据起火楼层的数量,利用疏散设施进行疏散,根据居住者的各种特征进行情况分配,并通过突发情况插入角色冲突要素,将这些细节设计应用到实际训练中。通过对消防安全管理人员进行切实可行的教育,使他们在值班时能够灵活应对火灾发生时引导人员疏散过程中可能出现的突发情况,提高使用疏散设施的技能。
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引用次数: 0
Study on the Performance of Sandwich Pressurization System 三明治加压系统性能研究
Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.7731/kifse.3728da4e
Hee-Moon Kim, Han-bit Choi, Don-mook Choi
This study aims to outline a verification plan for domestic scenarios using the sandwich pressurization method. We employed four methods: T.A.B, hot smoke test, FDS, and pathfinder. T.A.B and fire and evacuation simulation did not exhibit any issues. However, the smoke flow was observed in both the upper and lower layers during the H.S.T. Evacuation safety was confirmed through simulation, including the adequacy of the procedure. Nonetheless, the introduction of smoke in the hot smoke test highlighted the need for enhancements to the sandwich pressurization method. Consequently, the hot smoke test, alongside T.A.B and fire and evacuation simulations, will enhance verification standards for the sandwich pressurization method.
本研究旨在概述使用夹层加压方法的国内情景验证计划。我们采用了四种方法:T.A.B、热烟雾测试、FDS 和探路者。T.A.B 和火灾与疏散模拟没有出现任何问题。然而,在 H.S.T 过程中,我们在上层和下层都观察到了烟流。通过模拟,我们确认了疏散的安全性,包括程序的适当性。然而,在热烟试验中出现的烟雾突出表明有必要改进夹层加压方法。因此,热烟试验以及 T.A.B、火灾和疏散模拟将提高夹层加压方法的验证标准。
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引用次数: 0
Risk Assessment Using Overpressure and Impulse for Abnormal Explosion of Composite Solid Propellants 利用超压和脉冲对复合固体推进剂异常爆炸进行风险评估
Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.7731/kifse.676b9b7c
G. Hwang, Si-Hyeon Jo, Dong-Hee Kim
In this study, the risks were investigated by probabilistic analysis of the effects on the person and structure located around the composite solid propellant when it explodes abnormally. Two types of solid propellants of different sizes and three TNT equivalents of composite propellants were applied to empirical correlation to derive incident pressure and impulse. These were used in probit analysis, and the effects on the person and structure were quantitatively analyzed to determine the risk of solid propellant explosion. The larger the propellant and the more the TNT equivalent, the higher the incident pressure and impulse. Moreover, the amount of propellant had a more significant effect on the impulse than the incident pressure. The effects of the incident pressure and impulse on human were observed to be greater in the order of probability of ruptured eardrums, death from head impact, death from whole-body displacement impact, and death from lung damage. Furthermore, the effects on the structure were observed to be greater in the order of probability of breakage of window, minor damage, major damage, and collapse of the building.
在本研究中,通过对复合固体推进剂异常爆炸时对周围人员和结构的影响进行概率分析,对风险进行了研究。对两种不同尺寸的固体推进剂和三种 TNT 等效的复合推进剂进行了经验相关性分析,得出了入射压力和冲量。将其用于 probit 分析,定量分析其对人体和结构的影响,以确定固体推进剂爆炸的风险。推进剂越大,TNT 当量越多,事故压力和冲量就越大。此外,推进剂数量对脉冲的影响比事故压力更大。事故压力和脉冲对人体的影响依次为耳膜破裂、头部撞击致死、全身位移撞击致死和肺部损伤致死。此外,还观察到对建筑物的影响依次为窗户破裂、轻微损坏、严重损坏和建筑物倒塌。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Fire Science and Engineering
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