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Liquid cloud drop effective radius over China: A 20-year MODIS-based assessment 中国上空的液态云滴有效半径:基于 MODIS 的 20 年评估
IF 4.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107750
Clouds are one of the most significant and uncertain components in weather forecasting and climate prediction. The 20-year detailed liquid water cloud effective radius (CER) over China from 2001 to 2020 are systematically studied based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer cloud products. The spatial distributions of CER show slight alterations of seasonal patterns of changes over China during 2001–2020. The monthly mean CER values over China vary from 12.7 μm in November to nearly 14.4 μm in July. The summer season has the largest average CER, followed by spring and winter, while autumn exhibits relatively lower CER levels over China. The mean CER values during 2001–2020 are found to be 14.7, 11.8 and 13.0 μm over the Tibetan Plateau, inland and coastal regions of China, respectively. High CERs in spring and winter are seen in the Tibet Plateau, whereas the reverse is true over the inland and coastal regions. The impacts of precipitable water vapor (PWV) and aerosol optical depth on the CER over China are complex, whereas the correlations between CER and PWV can be generally expressed by a two-stage linear fitting, showing distinct turning points in different seasons and regions. The CER over different regions of China shows an increase with enhanced PWV under low or high water vapor conditions as opposed to an increase of CER under moderate water vapor levels. Our study indicates a high CER in the Tibet Plateau and low over the Sichuan Basin, and significantly distinct impact of PWV on the CER in the Tibet Plateau.
云是天气预报和气候预测中最重要和最不确定的组成部分之一。基于中分辨率成像分光仪云产品,系统研究了2001-2020年中国上空20年详细的液态水云有效半径(CER)。2001-2020 年间,中国上空的 CER 空间分布呈现出轻微的季节变化规律。中国上空的月平均 CER 值从 11 月的 12.7 μm 到 7 月的近 14.4 μm 不等。夏季的平均 CER 值最大,其次是春季和冬季,而秋季的 CER 值相对较低。2001-2020 年期间,中国青藏高原、内陆和沿海地区的平均 CER 值分别为 14.7、11.8 和 13.0 μm。西藏高原春季和冬季的 CER 值较高,而内陆和沿海地区则相反。可降水水汽和气溶胶光学深度对中国上空 CER 的影响非常复杂,而 CER 与可降水水汽之间的相关关系一般可以用两级线性拟合来表示,在不同季节和地区表现出明显的转折点。在低水汽或高水汽条件下,中国不同地区上空的 CER 会随着 PWV 的增加而增加,而在中等水汽水平下 CER 则不会增加。我们的研究表明,西藏高原的 CER 较高,四川盆地较低,而 PWV 对西藏高原的 CER 有明显的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Legacy of aerosol radiative effect predominates daytime dust loading evolution 气溶胶辐射效应的遗留影响了白天尘埃负荷的演变
IF 4.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107735
Dust radiative effect imposes pronounced perturbations on planetary boundary layer (PBL) development. In turn, the modified PBL characteristics and circulation fields regulate subsequent dust processes, which have not been explored sufficiently. In this study, parallel experiments are designed to isolate the instant, legacy and nonlinear impacts of aerosol radiative effect on daytime dust storm evolution over the Tarim Basin. During a typical dust storm event, legacy radiative effect is found to dominate dust loading dynamics and modulates mean dust burden by more than 16 % in the central basin and − 41 % in the marginal basin. Specifically, the dust column concentration increases in central regions but decreases in marginal regions. Dust aerosols cause opposite heating rate distributions and PBL structure between the central and marginal regions through altering radiative balance. Dust-induced cooling effect in the marginal regions leads to PBL suppression and attenuates entrainment mixing. Negative net heating also results in lowered potential temperature, elevated air pressure and thus increases their horizontal gradients. Accordingly, wind speeds are amplified through geostrophic and thermal wind effects, which further accelerate deposition rates, and eventually weaken dust suspension. In the central basin, dust plumes stimulate a warm mixing layer and unstable entrainment zone, which inhibit dry deposition removal and favor dust accumulation in the atmosphere. Our study highlights the importance of accounting PBL dynamics and geostrophic balance in quantifying the impacts of preceding radiative effect on subsequent dust evolution.
尘埃辐射效应对行星边界层(PBL)的发展产生了明显的扰动。反过来,改变后的行星边界层特征和环流场又会调节后续的尘埃过程,而目前对这些过程的研究还不够深入。在这项研究中,设计了平行实验来分离气溶胶辐射效应对塔里木盆地白天沙尘暴演变的即时、遗留和非线性影响。研究发现,在典型的沙尘暴事件中,遗留辐射效应主导着沙尘负荷的动态变化,并使盆地中部的平均沙尘负荷变化超过 16%,边缘盆地的平均沙尘负荷变化为 - 41%。具体来说,中部地区的尘柱浓度会增加,而边缘地区则会减少。尘埃气溶胶通过改变辐射平衡,在中心区域和边缘区域造成相反的加热率分布和 PBL 结构。尘埃在边缘区域引起的冷却效应导致 PBL 受阻,并减弱了夹带混合。负净加热也会导致潜在温度降低、气压升高,从而增加其水平梯度。因此,风速通过地转效应和热风效应被放大,从而进一步加快了沉积速度,最终减弱了沙尘悬浮。在盆地中部,沙尘羽流刺激了暖混合层和不稳定的夹带区,从而抑制了干沉降的清除,有利于沙尘在大气中的积累。我们的研究强调了在量化前期辐射效应对后续沙尘演变的影响时,考虑 PBL 动力学和地转平衡的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
The effect of temperature and humidity of air on the concentration of particulate matter - PM2.5 and PM10 空气温度和湿度对颗粒物--PM2.5 和 PM10 浓度的影响
IF 4.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107733
Particulate matters accepted as air quality markers are also indicators of the health risk of the population, especially children, because of their increased susceptibility to the quality of the air they breathe. Understanding the correlations between the concentration of particulate matter in the outdoor air and meteorological conditions will help to take steps to reduce pollution and reduce the risk of threats to health and life. For many years, scientists from all over the world have been looking for relationship between the impact of meteorological conditions on the concentration of particulate matter. Despite this, it is still not known whether the relationships will be similar in all locations. Furthermore, there is no agreement among scientists on the direction and strength of the correlation between temperature, humidity, and particulate matter concentrations. The article presents an attempt to link the impact of meteorological conditions on particulate matter concentrations depending on the classification of the area into air quality index in the particulate matter (AQIPM) category. Three locations with a specific air quality index were included: extremely poor, moderate & fair and good. The research was carried out at nine locations near educational facilities. Four measurement series were carried out for each location. Spearman's correlation coefficient was used to assess the relationship with an assumed significance level of 0.05. A research hypothesis was adopted: The correlation between particulate matter and meteorological conditions is different in locations with different AQIPM. The results obtained clearly show that the relationships between meteorological conditions and the concentration of particulate matter depend on the classification of the area into a specific category of the air quality index. The strongest correlation occurs in the fair & moderate AQIPM area. In relation to temperature, there is a negative correlation, and in relation to humidity, positive. In the extremely poor AQIPM area, no relationship was observed between humidity and particulate matter concentration. In the good AQIPM area, the correlation in relation to temperature was very weak, in relation to humidity, weak.
被视为空气质量标志的颗粒物也是人口(尤其是儿童)健康风险的指标,因为他们更容易受到所呼吸空气质量的影响。了解室外空气中颗粒物浓度与气象条件之间的相关性,有助于采取措施减少污染,降低威胁健康和生命的风险。多年来,世界各地的科学家一直在寻找气象条件对颗粒物浓度的影响之间的关系。尽管如此,人们仍然不知道这种关系是否在所有地方都相似。此外,科学家们对温度、湿度和颗粒物浓度之间相关性的方向和强度也没有达成一致。本文试图根据该地区的颗粒物空气质量指数(AQIPM)分类,将气象条件对颗粒物浓度的影响联系起来。研究对象包括三个具有特定空气质量指数的地点:极差、中等和amp;一般和好。研究在教育设施附近的九个地点进行。每个地点进行了四次测量。采用斯皮尔曼相关系数评估两者之间的关系,假定显著性水平为 0.05。研究假设如下在空气质量指数不同的地点,颗粒物与气象条件之间的相关性不同。研究结果清楚地表明,气象条件与颗粒物浓度之间的关系取决于空气质量指数的具体分类。相关性最强的是 "尚可 "和 "中等 "空气质量指数地区。与温度呈负相关,与湿度呈正相关。在空气质量指数极差的地区,没有观察到湿度与颗粒物浓度之间的关系。在空气质量良好地区,温度与颗粒物浓度的相关性很弱,湿度与颗粒物浓度的相关性很弱。
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引用次数: 0
Fractal dimension analysis of lightning discharges of various types based on a comprehensive literature review 基于文献综述的各类闪电放电分形维度分析
IF 4.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107736
In this study, photographic records of natural lightning flashes obtained from high-speed video camera observations are analyzed based on an extensive literature review. The purpose of this work is to estimate the fractal dimension of lightning discharges and to analyze and evaluate the effect of lightning type (downward and upward flashes during their propagation as well as return strokes) and lightning polarity (negative and positive). Three methods of fractal dimension estimation are employed namely the: (i) box-counting, (ii) sandbox, and (iii) correlation method, utilizing algorithms developed in MATLAB software. Appropriate image processing techniques are employed to guarantee precision in fractal dimension estimation. A thorough discussion is conducted by comparing the estimated fractal dimension values with those previously documented in the relevant literature based on field observations. The mean fractal dimension of downward negative leaders for the three methods (1.18, 1.31, 1.38) aligns well with previous studies, while positive downward leaders exhibit lower values (1.08, 1.15, 1.26), denoting a reduced branching behavior; upward leaders demonstrate slightly higher fractal dimensions than downward ones. Additionally, an attempt to correlate the lightning return stroke peak current with the fractal dimension is made. The outcomes of this research may assist in facilitating precise modeling of the lightning attachment phenomenon, thereby contributing to the development of safer lightning protection systems.
在本研究中,我们在广泛查阅文献的基础上,对高速摄像机观测到的自然闪电的照片记录进行了分析。这项工作的目的是估算闪电放电的分形维度,并分析和评估闪电类型(传播过程中的下闪和上闪以及回击)和闪电极性(负极和正极)的影响。我们采用了三种分形维度估算方法,即(i) 方框计数法、(ii) 沙箱法和 (iii) 相关法,利用 MATLAB 软件开发的算法。为保证分形维度估算的精确性,采用了适当的图像处理技术。在实地观测的基础上,将估算出的分形维度值与之前相关文献中记载的值进行了比较,并进行了深入讨论。在三种方法中,向下负向领导的平均分形维度(1.18、1.31、1.38)与之前的研究结果非常一致,而正向向下领导的分形维度值则较低(1.08、1.15、1.26),表明其分支行为有所减少;向上领导的分形维度略高于向下领导。此外,还尝试将闪电回击峰值电流与分形维度联系起来。这项研究的成果可能有助于对雷电附着现象进行精确建模,从而有助于开发更安全的防雷系统。
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引用次数: 0
Investigating radar data assimilation for winter cases using ICON-KENDA system 利用 ICON-KENDA 系统对冬季案例的雷达数据同化进行研究
IF 4.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107732
Since 2017, the SINFONY (Seamless INtegrated FOrecastiNg sYstem) project has been under development at the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). It is aimed to provide a seamless ensemble system for early predictions and warnings of severe weather events by combining the nowcasting based on extrapolating observed radar reflectivity and short-term forecasts initiated from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) of data assimilation for the convection-permitting ICON (ICOsahedral Nonhydtostatic) model. So far, the ICON-RUC setup has been extensively tested for convective summer cases. In this study, a series of sensitivity experiments have been conducted for the winter precipitation, including the choice of microphysics schemes and the Latent Heat Nudging (LHN). Results show that within data assimilation cycles the two-moment scheme outperforms the one-moment scheme, and the LHN has also positive impacts. For the 6-h reflectivity forecasts, the two-moment scheme is clearly better than the one-moment scheme and the added values by using the LHN persist almost 6 h. For the precipitation forecasts, the two-moment scheme also exhibits advantage for the light precipitation, however, for the moderate precipitation, the one-moment scheme prevails. Current results indicate that the two-moment has to be enhanced for the moderate precipitation in winter.
自2017年以来,德国气象局(DWD)一直在开发SINFONY(Seamless INtegrated FOrecastiNg sYstem)项目。该项目旨在通过将基于观测到的雷达反射率外推的现报与对流允许的 ICON(ICOsahedral Nonhydostatic)模式数据同化快速更新周期(RUC)启动的短期预报相结合,为恶劣天气事件的早期预测和预警提供一个无缝的集合系统。到目前为止,ICON-RUC 设置已经在夏季对流情况下进行了广泛测试。在本研究中,针对冬季降水进行了一系列敏感性实验,包括微物理方案和潜热推移(LHN)的选择。结果表明,在数据同化周期内,双时刻方案优于单时刻方案,而潜热诱导(LHN)也有积极影响。在 6 小时的反射率预报中,双时刻方案明显优于单时刻方案,使用 LHN 的附加值可持续近 6 小时。目前的结果表明,对于冬季的中等降水量,必须加强双时刻预报。
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引用次数: 0
The role of diabatic heating/cooling in outer rainbands in the secondary eyewall formation and evolution in a numerically simulated tropical cyclone 数值模拟热带气旋中外层雨带的绝热加热/冷却对次级眼墙形成和演变的作用
IF 4.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107730
<div><div>In this study, the role of diabatic heating/cooling in outer rainbands (ORBs) in the formation and evolution of the secondary eyewall of a numerically simulated tropical cyclone (TC) is investigated. This is done through a series of sensitivity experiments under idealized conditions using a high-resolution cloud-resolving atmospheric model. The results show that artificially increasing diabatic heating in rainbands enhances convective activities in ORBs and leads to an earlier secondary eyewall formation (SEF), and later the faster weakening and earlier dissipation of the primary eyewall. Reducing diabatic heating in ORBs weakens the rainbands and delays the SEF but prolongs the duration of the double eyewall structure if the SEF occurs. Reducing diabatic cooling in ORBs enhances convective activity in rainbands but has little effect on convection in the primary eyewall prior to the SEF. However, it results in a widened eyewall structure and a stronger TC after the eyewall replacement. Increasing diabatic cooling in ORBs largely suppresses convection in rainbands and prohibits the SEF. These results demonstrate that diabatic heating/cooling in ORBs plays important roles in the SEF and evolution. Since diabatic heating/cooling in rainbands is sensitive to the near-core environmental relative humidity, our results demonstrate the critical importance of large-scale environmental moist condition to the formation and evolution of secondary eyewall in TCs. In addition, it is also found that when the area-averaged diabatic heating rate in ORBs becomes similar in magnitude to that in the primary eyewall, the secondary eyewall forms.</div></div><div><h3>Plain language summary</h3><div>Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of diabatic heating/cooling in outer rainbands to the structure and intensity changes of tropical cyclones (TCs) with a single eyewall. It is unclear whether and how diabatic heating/cooling in outer rainbands may affect the formation and evolution of the secondary eyewall in TCs. These issues have been addressed based on a series of sensitivity experiments under idealized conditions using a high-resolution atmospheric model. Results show that diabatic heating in outer rainbands is favorable for the secondary eyewall formation (SEF). Increasing diabatic heating in outer eyewall can lead to faster weakening and thus earlier dissipation of the primary eyewall. Diabatic cooling in outer rainbands suppresses convection in outer rainbands and prohibits the SEF. Since diabatic heating/cooling in outer rainbands is sensitive to the near-core environmental relative humidity, our results demonstrate the importance of the large-scale environmental moist condition to the SEF of TCs. We also found that when the area-averaged diabatic heating rate in outer rainbands becomes similar in magnitude to that in the primary eyewall, the secondary eyewall would form, which can be considered as a measure of the SEF in TCs.</div></div><di
在本研究中,研究了外雨带(ORB)中的绝热加热/冷却在数值模拟的热带气旋(TC)次生眼球的形成和演变中的作用。这是通过使用高分辨率云解析大气模型在理想化条件下进行的一系列敏感性实验完成的。结果表明,人为增加雨带中的二重加热会增强 ORB 中的对流活动,并导致更早的二次眼墙形成(SEF),以及更快的主眼墙减弱和更早的消散。减少 ORB 中的二重加热会减弱雨带,推迟 SEF 的形成,但如果出现 SEF,则会延长双层眼墙结构的持续时间。减少 ORB 的二重冷却会增强雨带中的对流活动,但对 SEF 前主眼墙中的对流影响不大。然而,它会导致眼墙结构扩大,并在眼墙替换后形成更强的热气旋。增加ORB中的二重冷却在很大程度上抑制了雨带中的对流,并阻止了SEF。这些结果表明,ORB中的二重加热/冷却在SEF和演变过程中发挥了重要作用。由于雨带中的二重加热/冷却对近核心环境相对湿度很敏感,我们的结果证明了大尺度环境湿度条件对TC中二次眼球的形成和演变至关重要。此外,我们还发现,当外雨带的区域平均二重加热速率与主眼球的二重加热速率大小相似时,就会形成副眼球。目前还不清楚外雨带中的二重加热/冷却是否以及如何影响热带气旋中二次眼墙的形成和演变。我们利用高分辨率大气模型,在理想化条件下进行了一系列敏感性实验,从而解决了这些问题。结果表明,外雨带的二重加热有利于二次眼墙的形成(SEF)。增加外雨带的二重加热会导致主雨带更快减弱,从而更早消散。外雨带的二重冷却会抑制外雨带的对流,从而阻碍 SEF 的形成。由于外雨带的二重加热/冷却对近核心环境相对湿度很敏感,我们的结果证明了大尺度环境湿度条件对TC的SEF的重要性。我们还发现,当外雨带的区域平均二重加热率与主眼球的二重加热率大小相近时,副眼球就会形成,这可被视为 TC 中 SEF 的一个衡量指标。3.当外雨带的区域平均二重加热率与眼墙的二重加热率大小相近时,就会形成副眼墙。
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引用次数: 0
Ensemble versus deterministic lightning forecast performance at a convective scale over Indian region 印度地区对流尺度上的集合与确定性闪电预报性能对比
IF 4.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107727
The present study quantifies the improvement achieved in lightning forecast skill of the NCMRWF regional ensemble prediction system (NEPS-R) compared to its deterministic counterpart (CNTL). The lightning forecasts over study regions of East and Northeast India (ENEI) and Peninsular India (PI) during the pre-monsoon season and Central-East and Northeast India (CENEI) during the monsoon season have been verified using lightning observations from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) Lightning Detection Network (LDN). The persisting systematic negative bias in deterministic and EPS-based forecasts of the ensemble mean (EnsMean) and ensemble maximum (EnsMax) indicate the lack of spread among the members, supported by the low values of ensemble spread over all the study regions. EnsMean has the lowest RMSE, with a decrease in error ranging from 0.8 % to 2.18 % compared to CNTL. Categorical skill scores indicate that the EPS-based forecasts (EnsMean and EnsMax) are more skillful than the deterministic forecast at all thresholds and lead times. Further, Fractions Skill Score (FSS) establishes the superiority of the ensemble forecasts over the deterministic forecasts, where for threshold >1, EnsMean is skillful at comparatively smaller neighborhood sizes (ENEI and PI ∼68 km; CENEI ∼36 km for day-1) than CNTL (ENEI-116 km; PI-196 km; CENEI-68 km). EnsMax at higher thresholds (>5 and >10) is skillful at lesser neighborhood sizes ranging from 116 to 276 km compared to CNTL (>401 km) for day-1. Hence, skillful re-scaled EPS forecasts based on FSS could provide better guidance for the forecasters. The Continuous Ranked Probability Score of EPS forecasts is lower by around 9 % than the Mean Absolute Error of CNTL forecasts, and the ROC of EPS shows better discrimination of events and non-events compared to CNTL. These highlight the merits of using an EPS over a deterministic system for forecasting a field of high spatial variability, like lightning, and thereby, the use of vast computational resources to run a convective scale EPS is justified.
本研究量化了 NCMRWF 区域集合预报系统(NEPS-R)与其确定性对应系统(CNTL)相比在闪电预报技能方面所取得的改进。利用印度热带气象研究所(IITM)闪电探测网络(LDN)的闪电观测数据,验证了季风季节前印度东部和东北部(ENEI)和印度半岛(PI)以及季风季节印度中东部和东北部(CENEI)研究区域的闪电预报。在确定性和基于 EPS 的集合平均值(EnsMean)和集合最大值(EnsMax)预报中持续存在系统性负偏差,这表明各成员之间缺乏扩散,所有研究区域的集合扩散值都很低。与 CNTL 相比,EnsMean 的均方根误差最小,误差减少了 0.8 % 到 2.18 %。分类技能得分表明,在所有临界值和提前期,基于 EPS 的预报(EnsMean 和 EnsMax)都比确定性预报更有技能。此外,分数技能得分(FSS)确定了集合预报优于确定性预报,在阈值>1时,EnsMean在相对较小的邻域大小(ENEI和PI∼68 km;CENEI∼36 km,第1天)比CNTL(ENEI-116 km;PI-196 km;CENEI-68 km)更有技能。与 CNTL(401 km)相比,阈值较高(5 和 10)的 EnsMax 在邻域大小(116 至 276 km)较小的情况下对日-1 比较熟练。因此,基于 FSS 的高技能再缩放 EPS 预报可为预报员提供更好的指导。EPS 预报的连续排列概率得分比 CNTL 预报的平均绝对误差低约 9%,与 CNTL 相比,EPS 的 ROC 显示出更好的事件和非事件分辨能力。这些都凸显了在预报雷电等空间变化大的领域时,使用 EPS 比使用确定性系统更有优势,因此,使用大量计算资源来运行对流尺度的 EPS 是合理的。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of cloud enhancement events in a 30-year record of global solar irradiance at Thessaloniki, Greece 希腊塞萨洛尼基 30 年全球太阳辐照度记录中的云增强事件分析
IF 4.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107731
In this study, we investigate the characteristics of global horizontal irradiance enhancement events induced by clouds over Thessaloniki for the period 1994–2023 using data recorded every one minute. We identified the cloud enhancement (CE) events by creating an appropriate cloud-free irradiance reference using a radiative transfer model and aerosol optical depth data from a collocated Cimel sun photometer and a Brewer spectrophotometer. We found a trend in CE events of +112±35cases/year, and a trend in the corresponding irradiation of +329.9±112.0kJ/year. To our knowledge, such long-term changes in CE events have not been presented in the past. The peak of the CE events was observed during May and June. CE events with duration longer than 10 min are very rare (<8%), with exceptions lasting over an hour and up to 140 min. Finally, we have detected enhancements above the total solar irradiance at the top of the atmosphere for the same solar zenith angle of up to 204W/m2, with the 75 % of the cases below 40W/m2. Most of these extreme events occur in spring – early summer, with a secondary peak in autumn.
在本研究中,我们使用每分钟记录一次的数据,研究了 1994-2023 年期间塞萨洛尼基上空由云引起的全球水平辐照度增强事件的特征。我们利用辐射传递模型和气溶胶光学深度数据,确定了无云辐照度参考值,这些数据来自一台共用的 Cimel 太阳光度计和一台 Brewer 分光光度计。我们发现CE事件的趋势为+112±35例/年,相应的辐照度趋势为+329.9±112.0kJ/年。据我们所知,CE事件的这种长期变化过去从未出现过。CE 事件的高峰期出现在 5 月和 6 月。持续时间超过 10 分钟的 CE 事件非常罕见(<8%),例外情况是持续时间超过一小时或达到 140 分钟。最后,在同一太阳天顶角下,我们检测到大气顶部的太阳总辐照度增强,最高可达 204W/m2,其中 75% 的情况低于 40W/m2。这些极端事件大多发生在春季-初夏,秋季是次高峰。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the influence of climate change on multiple climate indices in Nepal using CMIP6 global climate models 利用 CMIP6 全球气候模型评估气候变化对尼泊尔多种气候指数的影响
IF 4.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107720
Global climate models (GCMs) serve as essential tools for projecting future climate trends, but their coarse resolution limits localized impact assessments in sectors like hydrology, agriculture, and biodiversity. Observation data with a spatial resolution of a few kilometers are crucial for downscaling and bias-correcting GCMs at finer resolutions. However, Nepal's extreme topography and organizational challenges have led to uneven distribution of meteorological stations and inconsistent data quality. Moreover, CMIP6-based climate extremes projections for the entire country are currently unavailable. To tackle these challenges, we developed a comprehensive national database for Nepal, offering high-resolution historical and projected precipitation and temperature data analyzed through 25 climate extreme indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Initially, observation grid data were prepared at a daily timescale with a spatial resolution of 0.05° × 0.05° for baseline period (1981–2010) using the Asian Precipitation High-Resolved Observational Data Integration Toward Evaluation (APHRODITE), the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA5), and available good quality observed climate data. This data was then utilized to downscale and bias-correct 18 CMIP6 GCMs for 2015–2100 under four SSPs (1–2.6, 2–4.5, 3–7.0, 5–8.5). Quantile mapping was employed for the bias correction of the CMIP6 GCMs. The performance of the multimodal ensemble (MME) indicated better Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), root mean square error ratio (RSR), and Percent Bias (PBIAS) of climate extreme indices for the historical period. A comparative analysis was conducted across Nepal's major geographic regions to account for spatial variability in regional climate systems. The finer-resolution dataset can be crucial to deepen our understanding of climate impacts, and climate change, and eventually informing the policy-making in Nepal. Moreover, the methodology can be effectively replicated in data-scarce developing nations to promote climate research and adaptation efforts.
全球气候模型(GCM)是预测未来气候趋势的重要工具,但其粗糙的分辨率限制了对水文、农业和生物多样性等领域的局部影响评估。空间分辨率为几千米的观测数据对于更精细分辨率的 GCM 的降尺度和偏差校正至关重要。然而,尼泊尔的极端地形和组织方面的挑战导致气象站分布不均和数据质量不一致。此外,目前还没有基于 CMIP6 的全国极端气候预测数据。为了应对这些挑战,我们为尼泊尔开发了一个全面的国家数据库,提供高分辨率的历史和预测降水和温度数据,并通过气候变化探测和指数专家组(ETCCDI)的 25 个气候极端指数进行分析。首先,利用亚洲降水高分辨率观测数据整合评估(APHRODITE)、第五代欧洲中期天气预报再分析中心(ERA5)和现有优质观测气候数据,编制了基线期(1981-2010 年)空间分辨率为 0.05° × 0.05° 的日时间尺度观测网格数据。然后,利用这些数据对 18 个 CMIP6 GCM 进行降尺度和偏差校正,得出四个 SSP(1-2.6、2-4.5、3-7.0、5-8.5)下 2015-2100 年的数据。对 CMIP6 GCM 的偏差校正采用了量子映射法。多模式集合(MME)的性能表明,历史时期气候极端指数的纳什-萨特克利夫效率(NSE)、均方根误差比(RSR)和偏差百分比(PBIAS)都更好。对尼泊尔主要地理区域进行了比较分析,以考虑区域气候系统的空间变异性。更高分辨率的数据集对于加深我们对气候影响和气候变化的理解至关重要,并最终为尼泊尔的政策制定提供信息。此外,这种方法可以有效地推广到数据稀缺的发展中国家,以促进气候研究和适应工作。
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引用次数: 0
Disparity in Meiyu precipitation in the middle-lower Yangtze River basin during El Niño decay years 厄尔尼诺衰减年长江中下游流域梅雨降水量的差异
IF 4.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107728
Meiyu (plume rain) is a distinctive weather phenomenon during boreal early summer, known for its increased precipitation during El Niño decay years bridged through the northwest Pacific anticyclone (NWPAC). It has been widely acknowledged that super El Niño (SEN) events consistently correspond to more Meiyu. This study highlights the instability in the relationship between El Niño and Meiyu, particularly during normal El Niño (NEN) decay years, where the probability of more or less Meiyu is almost equal by statistical analysis. Using the Liang-Kleeman information flow (LIF), our findings confirm that warming in the Maritime Continent (MC) induced by SEN leads to tropical North Atlantic warming in boreal spring. This suppresses northwest Pacific convection via Kevin waves and forms the north-south dipole mode of the NWPAC (EOF2), corresponding to strong Meiyu. Moreover, it is found that subtropical North Pacific cooling induced by NEN leads to the tropical North Atlantic warming in boreal spring via Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, reinforcing the region-wide consistent mode of the NWPAC (EOF1) via Rossby waves and resulting in strong Meiyu. Conversely, warming in the tropical North Atlantic induced by NEN in boreal early summer leads to anticyclonic circulation over the east of Japan (EOF3) and weak Meiyu. The contributions of these three causal structures to the uncertainty of Meiyu are 31 %, 25.7 %, and 28.2 %, respectively. This study sheds new light on the understanding the significance of NEN for Meiyu, emphasizing the importance of its causal relationship with warming in the tropical North Atlantic.
梅雨(羽流雨)是北方初夏的一种独特天气现象,因其在厄尔尼诺衰减年通过西北太平洋反气旋(NWPAC)增加降水而闻名。人们普遍认为,超强厄尔尼诺(SEN)事件总是与更多的梅雨相对应。本研究强调了厄尔尼诺和梅雨之间关系的不稳定性,特别是在正常厄尔尼诺衰减年,通过统计分析,出现或多或少梅雨的概率几乎相等。利用梁-克莱曼信息流(LIF),我们的研究结果证实,厄尔尼诺现象引起的海洋大陆(MC)变暖导致北大西洋热带地区在北方春季变暖。这通过凯文波抑制了西北太平洋对流,并形成了西北太平洋气旋的南北偶极模式(EOF2),与强梅雨相对应。此外,研究还发现,由 NEN 引起的副热带北太平洋变冷通过北美太平洋模式导致热带北大西洋在北方春季变暖,通过 Rossby 波加强了 NWPAC 的全区域一致模式(EOF1),从而导致强梅雨。相反,北半球初夏的 NEN 引起热带北大西洋变暖,导致日本东部出现反气旋环流(EOF3)和弱梅雨。这三个因果结构对 "梅雨 "不确定性的贡献率分别为 31%、25.7% 和 28.2%。这项研究为理解 NEN 对 Meiyu 的意义提供了新的启示,强调了 NEN 与热带北大西洋变暖之间因果关系的重要性。
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Atmospheric Research
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