Pub Date : 2024-02-10DOI: 10.47459/jssi.2023.13.43
Bartosz Kozicki, P. Lubiewski, Bartosz Błaszczak, David Zámek
The multidimensional comparative analyzes of transportation of people by rail were used in the article. The time series was analyzed and evaluated in order to detect the following phenomena: trend, seasonality and random factor. The initial time series was divided into parts in order to remove data that, due to the impact of a random phenomenon such as the COVID-19 pandemic, lost trends visible in the past (from January 2012 to December 2019). The Winters’ exponential smoothing method was used for the forecasting. The obtained forecast for 2024 is 390 380 000 passengers transported by rail in Poland. The mean absolute forecast error is 2,18.
{"title":"The Forecasting of Transportation of People by Rail in Poland for 2024 in Terms of Economic Security in the Republic of Poland","authors":"Bartosz Kozicki, P. Lubiewski, Bartosz Błaszczak, David Zámek","doi":"10.47459/jssi.2023.13.43","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47459/jssi.2023.13.43","url":null,"abstract":"The multidimensional comparative analyzes of transportation of people by rail were used in the article. The time series was analyzed and evaluated in order to detect the following phenomena: trend, seasonality and random factor. The initial time series was divided into parts in order to remove data that, due to the impact of a random phenomenon such as the COVID-19 pandemic, lost trends visible in the past (from January 2012 to December 2019). The Winters’ exponential smoothing method was used for the forecasting. The obtained forecast for 2024 is 390 380 000 passengers transported by rail in Poland. The mean absolute forecast error is 2,18.","PeriodicalId":475474,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues","volume":"31 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139846656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-10DOI: 10.47459/jssi.2023.13.43
Bartosz Kozicki, P. Lubiewski, Bartosz Błaszczak, David Zámek
The multidimensional comparative analyzes of transportation of people by rail were used in the article. The time series was analyzed and evaluated in order to detect the following phenomena: trend, seasonality and random factor. The initial time series was divided into parts in order to remove data that, due to the impact of a random phenomenon such as the COVID-19 pandemic, lost trends visible in the past (from January 2012 to December 2019). The Winters’ exponential smoothing method was used for the forecasting. The obtained forecast for 2024 is 390 380 000 passengers transported by rail in Poland. The mean absolute forecast error is 2,18.
{"title":"The Forecasting of Transportation of People by Rail in Poland for 2024 in Terms of Economic Security in the Republic of Poland","authors":"Bartosz Kozicki, P. Lubiewski, Bartosz Błaszczak, David Zámek","doi":"10.47459/jssi.2023.13.43","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47459/jssi.2023.13.43","url":null,"abstract":"The multidimensional comparative analyzes of transportation of people by rail were used in the article. The time series was analyzed and evaluated in order to detect the following phenomena: trend, seasonality and random factor. The initial time series was divided into parts in order to remove data that, due to the impact of a random phenomenon such as the COVID-19 pandemic, lost trends visible in the past (from January 2012 to December 2019). The Winters’ exponential smoothing method was used for the forecasting. The obtained forecast for 2024 is 390 380 000 passengers transported by rail in Poland. The mean absolute forecast error is 2,18.","PeriodicalId":475474,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues","volume":" 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139786753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-09DOI: 10.47459/jssi.2023.13.33
Bartosz Kozicki, Paweł Jaśkiewicz, Latosiewicz Dariusz, Michał Więckiewicz, Grzegorz Surowiecki
The article presents a multidimensional comparative analysis of the number of passengers transported by air in Europe between 2019-2022 in terms of economic security. Data for the study was taken from Eurostat and categorized line and bar graphs were used. The conducted research shows that in 2021, in each of the considered European countries, an average of 138% of the number of passengers of 2020 were transported by air. In 2022, an increase to 230% of the number of passengers of 2021 was observed. The forecasting of the number of passengers conducted by air transport for 2023 in 29 European countries under consideration was made. A naive method was used for the forecasting. In 2023, the largest number of passengers will be transported in Spain, followed by Germany in the second place and France as third. The sum of the forecast of the number of passengers transported for 2023 in 29 European countries under consideration will equal 1 401 839 218 people and will be higher than in 2022 by 296 222 604 people.
{"title":"Multidimensional Analysis of the Number of Passengers Transported by Air in Europe Between 2019-2022 in Terms of Economic Security","authors":"Bartosz Kozicki, Paweł Jaśkiewicz, Latosiewicz Dariusz, Michał Więckiewicz, Grzegorz Surowiecki","doi":"10.47459/jssi.2023.13.33","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47459/jssi.2023.13.33","url":null,"abstract":"The article presents a multidimensional comparative analysis of the number of passengers transported by air in Europe between 2019-2022 in terms of economic security. Data for the study was taken from Eurostat and categorized line and bar graphs were used. The conducted research shows that in 2021, in each of the considered European countries, an average of 138% of the number of passengers of 2020 were transported by air. In 2022, an increase to 230% of the number of passengers of 2021 was observed. The forecasting of the number of passengers conducted by air transport for 2023 in 29 European countries under consideration was made. A naive method was used for the forecasting. In 2023, the largest number of passengers will be transported in Spain, followed by Germany in the second place and France as third. The sum of the forecast of the number of passengers transported for 2023 in 29 European countries under consideration will equal 1 401 839 218 people and will be higher than in 2022 by 296 222 604 people.","PeriodicalId":475474,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues","volume":"189 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135242010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-30DOI: 10.47459/jssi.2023.13.32
Ryszard Radwański, Justyna Izabela Stochaj, Krzysztof Rejman
The article’s main objective was to characterize the assumptions of civil protection in Poland in the context of the National Security Strategy of the Republic of Poland as of 2020. As a result of the study, it was found that in the document of strategic importance, which is the National Security Strategy of the Republic of Poland in force since 2020, a lot of attention was paid to the issue of the security of the state and its citizens – the entire first pillar, which is also the main national interest of Poland. Within this pillar, particular importance was attached to the management of national security, state resilience and general defence, the Polish Armed Forces, cybersecurity and information space.
{"title":"Premises for Protecting the Polish Population in the Context of the National Security Strategy","authors":"Ryszard Radwański, Justyna Izabela Stochaj, Krzysztof Rejman","doi":"10.47459/jssi.2023.13.32","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47459/jssi.2023.13.32","url":null,"abstract":"The article’s main objective was to characterize the assumptions of civil protection in Poland in the context of the National Security Strategy of the Republic of Poland as of 2020. As a result of the study, it was found that in the document of strategic importance, which is the National Security Strategy of the Republic of Poland in force since 2020, a lot of attention was paid to the issue of the security of the state and its citizens – the entire first pillar, which is also the main national interest of Poland. Within this pillar, particular importance was attached to the management of national security, state resilience and general defence, the Polish Armed Forces, cybersecurity and information space.","PeriodicalId":475474,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136342955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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