China Economic Quarterly International最新文献

Using the difference-in-differences method, we examine the impact of environmental regulation on individual health, employment, income, and welfare. We find that environmental regulation significantly improves health, but reduces employment and wage levels, although the effect on income is not statistically significant. The impact of environmental regulation is heterogeneous at different stages of economic development, and the high-age and the less educated are the main gainers and bearers of health benefits and economic costs. The welfare effect suggests that the welfare gains from improved health due to environmental regulation effectively compensate for the welfare losses from reduced employment.

We construct a global financial inclusion index using data from the World Bank, IMF, and V-Lab and propose an inverted U-shaped relationship between financial inclusion and financial stability. The empirical evidence supports our hypotheses, and the impact of financial inclusion on financial stability is less prominent under strong regulation and supervision. In addition, we use our constructed financial inclusion index, capital adequacy ratio, market power, and macroeconomic variables to simulate and predict the financial crisis. Our research has important policy implications and provides valuable insights to financial regulatory authorities in making decisions related to financial inclusion and financial stability.

In this paper, we collect the annual data of 145 commercial banks in China from 2010 to 2019 and use a panel data fixed-effect model to study how fintech (financial technology) affects the influence of macroeconomic uncertainty on commercial banks' proactive risk-taking. We find that the development of fintech mitigates the dampening effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on commercial banks' proactive risk-taking. Specifically, fintech plays a mitigating role by motivating commercial banks to issue loans and hold transactional financial assets. With the increase of commercial banks’ proactive risk-taking, the mitigation effect of fintech monotonically diminishes. This mitigating effect is heterogeneous across different types of commercial banks, as it is relatively weak for banks with high capital adequacy ratios and large state-owned banks.

With rising wages and increasing maturity of computer technology, computer use in the workplace is becoming increasingly common. Based on data from an urban labor survey, 58 percent of urban workers used computers at work in 2016. Using computer price and density as instrumental variables, we identify the estimation bias from the simultaneous determination of computer use and its productivity effect. We further identify the productivity effect based on computer use frequency. With the above econometric issues taken into account, computer use at work significantly boosts labor productivity and increases workers' wage returns by 48.4 percent.

How will the outbreak of Covid-19 affect people's expectations on the macroeconomy? We conduct an online experiment in China to investigate the relationship between ambiguity aversion, risk aversion, and expectations about the macroeconomy after the onset of Covid-19 which can be considered an uncertainty shock. Our study differs from previous studies as we elicit individuals' preferences in terms of ambiguity aversion and risk aversion, and test how these preferences drive macroeconomic expectations. We find that ambiguity averse subjects are more pessimistic about the effect of Covid-19 on the economic growth rate. Ambiguity averse subjects are more likely to reduce consumption and expect lower savings in response to the outbreak. More risk taking subjects have more optimistic expectations on the macroeconomy, and they are less likely to reduce consumption, investment, and savings.

This research uses CHIP(China Household Income Project) data of 2018 to examine the impact of higher education opportunities on the middle school graduates’ choice between academic and vocational high schools. The findings indicate that a higher university quota at the provincial level increases the likelihood of middle school graduates choosing an academic high school, and the probability of choosing a vocational high school is negatively correlated with elite university opportunities in urban China. These results suggest that spatial differences in opportunities of higher education significantly influence the type of human capital investment at the high school stage in China.

Using earthquake as an example, I investigate how risk perception affects household consumption with China Urban Household Survey data and Baidu index dataset. The empirical results show that consumption expenditure per capita drops by 25.2 yuan as the local search index of “earthquake” keyword increases by one standard deviation unit. These findings generally support the precautionary savings hypothesis. I also find media coverage of earthquake-related information drives the rise of the search index and the fall of household consumption. The results suggest that disaster events can seriously distort household consumption behaviors^, and the economic costs of social panic can be even higher than the direct loss of disasters.

The nationwide implementation of the minimum wage system in 1993 was followed by the “Minimum Wage Regulations” in 2004 with an attempt to enhance regulatory stringency of the system. The article constructs a theoretical model to establish testable propositions and conducts empirical analysis using China's Nutrition and Health Survey data to examine the impact of the minimum wage system on enterprise employment decisions. The findings reveal that the increase in the minimum wage has resulted in a shift towards short-term employment forms, and the strengthening of the minimum wage system in 2004 has further amplified this trend.

This paper examines whether increased export opportunity improved the relative demand for skilled labors in China's migrants, and whether such effects further improved their investments in their next generation's education. To answer these questions, by employing the National Migrant Monitoring Data, Manufacturing Enterprise Survey, China Customs Database and China's Population survey data, and using international demand shocks to construct instrumental variables, we find that export opportunities do increase the demand for skilled migrants, their wages and the probability that they bring their school-age children to cities. These results indicate that export opportunities not only increase the demand and return for skilled migrants, but also promote the accumulation of human capital for the next generation.