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Measuring the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Asset Prices 衡量非常规货币政策对资产价格的影响
Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI: 10.3386/w21816
Eric T. Swanson
I adapt the methods of Gurkaynak, Sack, and Swanson (2005) to estimate two dimensions of monetary policy during the 2009-2015 zero lower bound period in the U.S. I show that, after a suitable rotation, these two dimensions can be interpreted as "forward guidance" and "large-scale asset purchases" (LSAPs). I estimate the sizes of the forward guidance and LSAP components of each FOMC announcement between January 2009 and June 2015, and show that those estimates correspond closely to identifiable features of major FOMC announcements over that period. Forward guidance has relatively small effects on the longest-maturity Treasury yields and essentially no effect on corporate bond yields, while LSAPs have large effects on those yields but essentially no effect on short-term Treasuries. Both types of policies have significant effects on medium-term Treasury yields, stock prices, and exchange rates.
我采用Gurkaynak, Sack和Swanson(2005)的方法来估计2009-2015年美国零利率下限期间货币政策的两个维度。我表明,经过适当的轮换,这两个维度可以被解释为“前瞻性指导”和“大规模资产购买”(LSAPs)。我估计了2009年1月至2015年6月期间每个FOMC公告的前瞻指引和LSAP组成部分的大小,并表明这些估计与该期间主要FOMC公告的可识别特征密切相关。前瞻性指引对最长期限美国国债收益率的影响相对较小,对公司债收益率基本上没有影响,而LSAPs对这些收益率有很大影响,但对短期国债基本上没有影响。这两种政策对中期国债收益率、股票价格和汇率都有显著影响。
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引用次数: 58
The Market Structure of the Bank, Its Performance, and the Macroprudential Policy 银行市场结构、绩效与宏观审慎政策
Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.21098/BEMP.V18I1.514
T. Silalahi, A. Manurung, Y. Hidayat
Recently, numerous Central Banks implement various macro-prudential policies to complement the existing monetary policy. This paper analyzes the impact of these policies along with the market structure, on the bank’s performance. Using panel data analysis, this paper conclude that the reserve requirement ratio policy negatively affect the bank’s performance (ROA). The empirical test shows the banking industry in Indonesia respond to the increase of reserve requirement by raising the Net Interest Margin to achieve their targeted operating profits. Secondly, this paper fail to find uniform conclusion across model variants about the effect of the policy rate on bank’s performance. This also applies on the Loan to Value policy. Fourth, the market concentration has a more significant effect on banks’ profitability as compared to market power. Fifth, the production index significantly affects the banking profitability. These findings implies a necessity for policy makers to review the financial market structure before formulating effective policy package to promote a healthy competition in the banking industry.
近年来,各国央行纷纷实施各种宏观审慎政策,作为对现有货币政策的补充。本文分析了这些政策以及市场结构对银行绩效的影响。通过面板数据分析,本文得出了存款准备金率政策对银行绩效(ROA)产生负向影响的结论。实证检验表明,印尼银行业通过提高净息差来应对存款准备金率的上调,以实现其经营利润的目标。其次,对于政策利率对银行绩效的影响,本文未能找到跨模型变量的统一结论。这也适用于“贷款按价值计算”政策。第四,相对于市场支配力,市场集中度对银行盈利能力的影响更为显著。第五,生产指标显著影响银行盈利能力。这些发现表明,决策者在制定有效的一揽子政策以促进银行业的健康竞争之前,有必要审查金融市场结构。
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引用次数: 3
Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations on Emerging and Developed Economies in a Model Incorporating Monetary Variables 石油价格波动对新兴和发达经济体的宏观经济影响——基于货币变量的模型
Pub Date : 2015-10-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2672783
Farhad Taghizadeh Hesary, N. Yoshino
The goal of this paper is to examine the impact of crude oil price movements on two macro variables, the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and the consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate, in three countries, the People’s Republic of China (an emerging economy), Japan, and the United States (developed economies), in a model incorporating monetary variables (money supply and exchange rate). The main objective of this research is to investigate whether these economies are still reactive to oil price movements and compare their reactions. Monetary variables are included in this survey because our earlier research showed that they have a significant role in oil price determination. To assess the relationship between crude oil prices and macro variables we adopt an N-variable structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. The results suggest that the impact of oil price fluctuations on developed oil importers’ GDP growth is much milder than on the GDP growth of an emerging economy. On the other hand, however, the impact of oil price fluctuations on the People’s Republic of China’s inflation rate was found to be milder than in the two developed countries that were examined.
本文的目标是研究原油价格变动对两个宏观变量的影响,国内生产总值(GDP)增长率和消费者价格指数(CPI)通货膨胀率,在三个国家,中华人民共和国(新兴经济体),日本和美国(发达经济体),在一个模型中纳入货币变量(货币供给和汇率)。本研究的主要目的是调查这些经济体是否仍然对油价波动做出反应,并比较它们的反应。本次调查中包含货币变量,因为我们之前的研究表明,它们在油价决定中起着重要作用。为了评估原油价格与宏观变量之间的关系,我们采用了n变量结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型。结果表明,油价波动对发达石油进口国GDP增长的影响远小于对新兴经济体GDP增长的影响。然而,另一方面,发现石油价格波动对中华人民共和国通货膨胀率的影响比所审查的两个发达国家要温和。
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引用次数: 52
An Interest Rate Rule to Uniquely Implement the Optimal Equilibrium in a Liquidity Trap 流动性陷阱中唯一实现最优均衡的利率规则
Pub Date : 2015-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2672195
Fernando M. Duarte, Anna Zabai
The full text of this report is no longer available. For related work, see Fernando Duarte, “How to Escape a Liquidity Trap with Interest Rate Rules,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 776, May 2016.
本报告的全文已不再提供。有关相关工作,见Fernando Duarte,“如何用利率规则逃离流动性陷阱”,纽约联邦储备银行员工报告,第2期。2016年5月。
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引用次数: 0
Portfolio Rebalancing in Japan: Constraints and Implications for Quantitative Easing 日本投资组合再平衡:量化宽松的约束和影响
Pub Date : 2015-08-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513557595.001
Serkan Arslanalp, D. Botman
Portfolio rebalancing is a key transmission channel of quantitative easing in Japan. We construct a realistic rebalancing scenario, which suggests that the BoJ may need to taper its JGB purchases in 2017 or 2018, given collateral needs of banks, asset-liability management constraints of insurers, and announced asset allocation targets of major pension funds. Nonetheless, the BoJ could deliver continued monetary stimulus by extending the maturity of its JGB purchases or by scaling up private asset purchases. We quantify the impact of rebalancing on capital outflows and discuss JGB market signals that can be indicative of limits being within reach.
投资组合再平衡是日本量化宽松政策的重要传导渠道。我们构建了一个现实的再平衡情景,这表明考虑到银行的抵押品需求、保险公司的资产负债管理约束以及主要养老基金宣布的资产配置目标,日本央行可能需要在2017年或2018年逐步减少购买日本国债。尽管如此,日本央行可以通过延长购买日本国债的期限或扩大私人资产购买规模,来实施持续的货币刺激。我们量化了再平衡对资本外流的影响,并讨论了日本国债市场的信号,这些信号可能表明限制是可以达到的。
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引用次数: 9
Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: A DSGE Model 小型开放经济中的汇率动态与货币政策:一个DSGE模型
Pub Date : 2015-07-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2636906
M. Ouchen, Mustapha Ziky
This paper compares alternative monetary policy rules in a small open economy that experiences internal shocks (productivity shocks) and external shocks to terms of trade and the foreign demand. A comparison of the volatility of the macroeconomic variables such as inflation, output, terms of trade, trade balance, investment and exchange rates under the different monetary rules is set to lead to the choice of the optimal exchange rate regime. I will show that these regimes can be ranked in terms of their implied volatility for the considered macroeconomic variables. A two-country version of the Calvo sticky price model is used to analyze the macroeconomic implications of four alternative monetary policy regimes for a small open economy: domestic inflation targeting, managed float, CPI targeting and an exchange rate peg. The degree of exchange rate pass-through is very important for the assessment of monetary rules. I find that the CPI targeting rule is the best policy in an economy that exhibits lagged exchange rate pass-through. With low pass-through, both the domestic and the overall prices respond sluggishly to shocks, and it is more efficient for the monetary authority to target the overall CPI rather than just domestic prices. In a low pass-through environment, the policy maker can simultaneously strictly target (CPI) inflation, but still allow high volatility in the nominal exchange rate to stabilize the real economy in face of shocks. The low rate of pass-through ensures that exchange rate shocks do not destabilize the price level. An important feature of low pass-through is that it eliminates the trade-off between output volatility and inflation volatility in the comparison of fixed relative to floating exchange rates.
本文比较了在一个经历内部冲击(生产率冲击)和外部冲击的小型开放经济体中可供选择的货币政策规则对贸易条件和外国需求的影响。通过比较不同货币制度下通货膨胀率、产出、贸易条件、贸易差额、投资和汇率等宏观经济变量的波动性,选择最优汇率制度。我将表明,这些制度可以根据所考虑的宏观经济变量的隐含波动率进行排名。本文使用卡尔沃粘性价格模型的两国版本,分析了四种可供选择的货币政策制度对一个小型开放经济体的宏观经济影响:国内通胀目制制、有管理的浮动汇率制度、CPI目制制和盯住汇率制度。汇率传递的程度对于货币规则的评估是非常重要的。我发现,在汇率传递滞后的经济体中,CPI目标规则是最好的政策。在低传递的情况下,无论是国内价格还是总体价格对冲击的反应都很缓慢,货币当局以总体CPI为目标而不是仅以国内价格为目标更为有效。在低传递环境下,政策制定者可以同时严格设定CPI通胀目标,但仍然允许名义汇率的高波动性,以稳定实体经济。低传递率确保了汇率冲击不会破坏价格水平的稳定。低传递的一个重要特征是,在相对于浮动汇率的固定汇率的比较中,它消除了产出波动性和通胀波动性之间的权衡。
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引用次数: 1
Is Optimal Monetary Policy Always Optimal? 最优货币政策总是最优的吗?
Pub Date : 2015-07-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2639830
Troy A. Davig, R. Gürkaynak
No. And not only for the reason you think. In a world with multiple inefficiencies the single policy tool the central bank has control over will not undo all inefficiencies; this is well understood. We argue that the world is better characterized by multiple inefficiencies and multiple policy makers with various objectives. Asking the policy question only in terms of optimal monetary policy effectively turns the central bank into the residual claimant of all policy and gives the other policymakers a free hand in pursuing their own goals. This further worsens the tradeoffs faced by the central bank. The optimal monetary policy literature and the optimal simple rules often labeled flexible inflation targeting assign all of the cyclical policymaking duties to central banks. This distorts the policy discussion and narrows the policy choices to a suboptimal set. We highlight this issue and call for a broader thinking of optimal policies.
不。并不是你想的那样。在一个多重低效的世界里,央行控制的单一政策工具不会消除所有的低效;这是很容易理解的。我们认为,多重低效率和具有不同目标的多重政策制定者是世界的更好特征。只从最优货币政策的角度来提出政策问题,实际上把央行变成了所有政策的剩余索取者,并让其他政策制定者在追求自己的目标时自由行动。这进一步加剧了央行面临的权衡。最优货币政策文献和最优简单规则通常被称为灵活的通货膨胀目标制,它们将所有的周期性政策制定职责都赋予了央行。这扭曲了策略讨论,并将策略选择缩小到次优集合。我们强调这一问题,并呼吁对最佳政策进行更广泛的思考。
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引用次数: 22
Monetary Policy Regime Change and Regional Inflation Dynamics: Looking Through the Lens of Sector-Level Data for Korea 货币政策制度变迁与区域通胀动态:透过韩国部门层面数据的视角
Pub Date : 2015-07-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2636616
Chi‐Young Choi, J. Lee, Róisín O'Sullivan
This paper explores the impact of the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) on the dynamics of city-level inflation in Korea using both aggregate and sector-level data. When looking at aggregate regional inflation, we find that the mean, volatility and persistence fell in all cities in the wake of the monetary policy regime change, consistent with other evidence in the literature. We also note a narrowing of the dispersion of regional inflation across cities and a greater degree of regional co-movement. Delving more deeply into the disaggregate data reveals additional insights however. For most of the changes we observe in the dynamics of regional inflation, we find that the aggregate effects are being driven primarily by sectors that fall into the ‘Services’ category. We posit that the impact of better anchored inflationary expectations is primarily on the less-traded services sectors of the economy, where the domestic monetary policy framework has a relatively larger influence compared with globally-traded commodities. When it comes to the increased co-movement observed across regions under IT regime, however, it is the ‘Commodities’ sectors rather than ‘Services’ that are responsible, probably because services inflation becomes relatively more influenced by local factors once it has stabilized within the target range. We show that this sectoral heterogeneity can be explained by the difference in price stickiness such that sectors in which prices are adjusted less frequently tend to have a larger response under the new monetary policy regime.
本文探讨了采用通货膨胀目标制(IT)对韩国城市级通货膨胀动态的影响,使用了总体和部门级数据。当观察总区域通货膨胀时,我们发现在货币政策制度变化之后,所有城市的平均值、波动性和持久性都下降了,这与文献中的其他证据一致。我们还注意到,各城市之间的区域通货膨胀分散性正在缩小,区域协同运动的程度也在提高。然而,更深入地研究分解数据会揭示出更多的见解。对于我们观察到的区域通货膨胀动态的大部分变化,我们发现,总体效应主要是由属于“服务”类别的部门驱动的。我们认为,更好地锚定通胀预期的影响主要是对经济中贸易量较少的服务部门,与全球贸易的大宗商品相比,国内货币政策框架对服务部门的影响相对更大。然而,当涉及到在it制度下跨地区观察到的日益增加的共同运动时,它是“商品”部门而不是“服务”部门负责,可能是因为服务通胀一旦稳定在目标范围内,相对而言受当地因素的影响更大。我们表明,这种行业异质性可以用价格粘性的差异来解释,在新的货币政策制度下,价格调整频率较低的行业往往会有更大的反应。
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引用次数: 4
Effect of Monetary Policy on Commercial Banks Across Different Business Conditions 不同经营条件下货币政策对商业银行的影响
Pub Date : 2015-06-30 DOI: 10.17578/9-1/2-5
Syed M. Harun, M. Hassan, Tarek S. Zaher
The objective of the paper is to investigate whether the stock price reactions of commercial banks to monetary policy actions are dependent on the state of the economy. The results indicate that monetary policy actions have asymmetric effects on the returns of commercial banks across different monetary policy and business environments. The asymmetric effects can primarily be attributed to the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on discount rates across different monetary and business environments. We also observe that the impact of monetary policy on the returns of commercial banks is affected by bank-specific characteristics. Bank size, leverage and profitability play an important role in explaining the cross-sectional variation in bank returns as a result of monetary policy changes. We find that cross-sectional bank-specific characteristics affect the bank returns asymmetrically as a result of monetary policy changes across different business conditions. The results suggest that the effectiveness of monetary policy depends on the states of the economy.
本文的目的是研究商业银行对货币政策行为的股价反应是否依赖于经济状况。研究结果表明,在不同的货币政策和商业环境下,货币政策行为对商业银行收益的影响是不对称的。这种不对称效应主要归因于货币政策在不同货币和商业环境下对贴现率的不对称效应。我们还观察到,货币政策对商业银行收益的影响受到银行自身特征的影响。银行规模、杠杆率和盈利能力在解释货币政策变化导致银行收益的横截面变化方面发挥了重要作用。我们发现,由于货币政策在不同商业条件下的变化,银行的横截面特征对银行收益的影响是非对称的。结果表明,货币政策的有效性取决于经济状况。
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引用次数: 2
Sovereign Debt and Reserves with Liquidity and Productivity Crises 主权债务和储备与流动性和生产率危机
Pub Date : 2015-06-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2645715
F. Corneli, E. Tarantino
During the recent financial crisis, emerging economies have kept accumulating both sovereign reserves and debt. To account for this empirical fact, we model the optimal portfolio choice of a sovereign that is subject to liquidity and productivity shocks. We determine the equilibrium level of debt and its cost by solving a contracting game between sovereign and international lenders. Although raising debt increases the sovereign exposure to liquidity and productivity crises, the simultaneous accumulation of reserves can mitigate the negative effects of such crises. This mechanism rationalizes the complementarity between debt and reserves.
在最近的金融危机中,新兴经济体不断积累主权储备和债务。为了解释这一经验事实,我们对受流动性和生产率冲击影响的主权国家的最优投资组合选择进行了建模。我们通过解决主权和国际债权人之间的契约博弈来确定债务的均衡水平及其成本。尽管增加债务增加了主权国家对流动性和生产率危机的风险敞口,但同时积累储备可以减轻此类危机的负面影响。这一机制使债务和储备之间的互补性合理化。
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引用次数: 169
期刊
ERN: Monetary Policy (Topic)
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