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Python-Based Model Emulation Workflows with PEST 使用PEST的基于python的模型仿真工作流。
IF 2.6 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-09-13 Epub Date: 2026-05-28 DOI: 10.1111/gwat.70082
Rui Hugman, Jeremy White

Computational demands for uncertainty quantification and optimization often exceed available resources for high-fidelity environmental models. While surrogate modeling (or model emulation) offers a pragmatic solution, widespread adoption is hindered by a significant “implementation gap”: practitioners often lack standardized, robust tools to integrate emulation techniques directly into existing modeling workflows, relying instead on bespoke implementations. To bridge this gap, we present the Emulator module within the open-source pyEMU package. This framework provides a “plug-and-play” architecture for deploying Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Data-Space Inversion (DSI) and other model emulation approaches. The framework automates the complex “plumbing” of emulation-based workflows, including non-Gaussian data transformation and the generation of PEST interface files, allowing trained surrogates to serve as drop-in replacements for physics-based models. We believe this one-to-one correspondence between physics-based model and emulator-based workflows will facilitate direct comparisons between the two so that the community in general can build up the knowledge of when and how to effectively and appropriately deploy emulation. We demonstrate the utility of these tools through a benchmarking optimization problem and a history-matching application on a synthetic groundwater model.

对于高保真度环境模型,不确定性量化和优化的计算需求往往超过可用资源。虽然代理建模(或模型仿真)提供了一个实用的解决方案,但是广泛的采用受到一个重要的“实现差距”的阻碍:从业者通常缺乏标准化的、健壮的工具来将仿真技术直接集成到现有的建模工作流中,而依赖于定制的实现。为了弥合这一差距,我们在开源pyEMU包中提供了模拟器模块。该框架为部署高斯过程回归(GPR)、数据空间反演(DSI)和其他模型仿真方法提供了一个“即插即用”架构。该框架自动化了基于仿真的工作流的复杂“管道”,包括非高斯数据转换和PEST接口文件的生成,允许训练有素的代理作为基于物理的模型的临时替代品。我们相信这种基于物理的模型和基于仿真器的工作流之间的一对一对应关系将促进两者之间的直接比较,以便社区一般可以建立关于何时以及如何有效和适当地部署仿真的知识。我们通过一个基准优化问题和一个合成地下水模型的历史匹配应用来展示这些工具的实用性。
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引用次数: 0
Groundwater in an Evolving Energy Landscape 不断演变的能源景观中的地下水。
IF 2.6 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-09-13 Epub Date: 2026-08-07 DOI: 10.1111/gwat.70097
Yu-Feng F. Lin
<p>For nearly a century, groundwater professionals have established groundwater as one of society's most valuable water resources. Today, another opportunity stands before us. Our community should consider broadening the definition of groundwater resources by recognizing one additional resource that groundwater has always provided—energy. In this editorial, “energy” does not refer to transforming groundwater into fuel or electricity, but to groundwater's natural capacity to store, transport, exchange, and recover thermal energy, which improves the efficiency, resilience, and sustainability of modern energy systems.</p><p>Most discussions about energy policy begin with electricity. Governments announce new generating capacity, utilities forecast future demand, and industries estimate how many gigawatts will be needed to support the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, such as data centers, semiconductor manufacturing plants, and their supply chains. These discussions are necessary, but they represent only one side of the energy equation. The other side—how efficiently energy is stored, transported, utilized, and managed—is equally important. Most electricity ultimately becomes heat that must be removed, recovered, or stored. As society increasingly builds an energy-intensive infrastructure, thermal management is becoming as critical as generating electricity.</p><p>Groundwater offers capabilities that few other natural resources can provide. It occupies an enormous subsurface volume, maintains relatively stable temperatures throughout the year, and possesses one of the highest volumetric heat capacities among naturally abundant materials. A saturated system is not only an excellent thermal reservoir but also an effective thermal carrier if groundwater flow occurs. This combination of high heat capacity and natural convective heat transport gives saturated aquifer systems significant advantages over unsaturated or dry subsurface materials for geothermal exchange, underground thermal energy storage (UTES), district energy systems, and cooling of the AI infrastructure (Fleuchaus et al. <span>2018</span>; Pepin et al. <span>2025</span>). Furthermore, most modern UTES systems recirculate groundwater without water loss except for leakage.</p><p>Our profession has already been building the scientific foundation for these applications since the 1970s. The <i>Groundwater</i> Special Issue on <i>Advances in Thermal Use of Groundwater</i> documented the rapid maturation of groundwater thermal science (Lin et al. <span>2023</span>). Many coupled thermohydrologic models have been used since the 1980s, such as MULKOM, the TOUGH suite series, and many more. More recently, the Groundwater Energy (GWE) Model for MODFLOW 6 integrated groundwater flow and thermal energy transport into what is now the most widely used open-access groundwater simulation. Scientific advances often redefine how society values natural resources. The ability to quantify groundwate
近一个世纪以来,地下水专家已经确定地下水是社会上最宝贵的水资源之一。今天,另一个机会摆在我们面前。我们的社会应该考虑扩大地下水资源的定义,认识到地下水一直提供的另一种资源——能源。在这篇社论中,“能源”不是指将地下水转化为燃料或电力,而是指地下水储存、运输、交换和回收热能的自然能力,这种能力提高了现代能源系统的效率、弹性和可持续性。大多数关于能源政策的讨论都是从电力开始的。政府宣布新的发电能力,公用事业公司预测未来的需求,行业估计需要多少千兆瓦来支持人工智能(AI)基础设施,如数据中心、半导体制造工厂及其供应链。这些讨论是必要的,但它们只代表了能量方程式的一面。另一方面——如何有效地储存、运输、利用和管理能源——也同样重要。大多数电最终都变成了必须除去、回收或储存的热。随着社会越来越多地建设能源密集型基础设施,热管理变得和发电一样重要。地下水提供了其他自然资源无法提供的能力。它占据了巨大的地下体积,全年保持相对稳定的温度,并且在自然丰富的材料中拥有最高的体积热容之一。饱和系统不仅是一种优良的热储层,而且在地下水流发生时也是一种有效的热载体。高热容量和自然对流热输送的结合使得饱和含水层系统在地热交换、地下热能储存(UTES)、区域能源系统和人工智能基础设施冷却方面比不饱和或干燥的地下材料具有显著优势(Fleuchaus et al. 2018; Pepin et al. 2025)。此外,大多数现代UTES系统循环地下水,除了泄漏外没有水损失。自20世纪70年代以来,我们的专业已经为这些应用建立了科学基础。关于地下水热利用进展的地下水特刊记录了地下水热科学的快速成熟(Lin et al. 2023)。自20世纪80年代以来,已经使用了许多耦合热水文模型,例如MULKOM, TOUGH套件系列等等。最近,MODFLOW 6的地下水能量(GWE)模型将地下水流动和热能输送整合到现在最广泛使用的开放式地下水模拟中。科学进步常常重新定义社会如何评价自然资源。量化地下水热能输送的能力使我们能够以与长期以来应用于地下水数量和质量相同的科学严谨性来评估热资源。其影响远远超出地热系统。每一种主要的发电形式都依赖于水资源来进行冷却、加工或制造,而人工智能、半导体制造和量子计算正在创造前所未有的冷却需求。最近的国家倡议,包括白宫创世纪计划,强调美国在能源、先进制造业、人工智能和战略基础设施方面的领导地位。地下水应该是对话的一部分——不仅作为可靠的供水,而且作为提高能源效率、电网弹性和长期可持续性的自然基础设施(NGWA 2025)。这一观点也改变了我们对水能关系的看法。多年来,地下水界一直认为自己主要是支持能源部门,因为能源生产需要水。然而,这种关系是不完整的。地下水是一种可再生的热资源,具有独特的储热和输热能力。承认这些能源服务并不会降低地下水作为水资源的价值;相反,它扩大了地下水为社会提供的服务。我们的职业不断发展,以满足社会不断变化的需求。地下水保护、污染水文地质、地下水可持续性、含水层补给管理和生态系统服务都拓宽了我们对地下水资源的认识。认识到地下水是一种能源资源是这一进程中合乎逻辑的下一步。地下水的定义特征不仅仅是地球表面下存在的水。它是稳定的环境温度、储存的水、储存的热能和自然输送冷热的流动水的组合。 这种水力和热过程的独特耦合将地下水与其他地质资源区分开来,并创造了远远超出传统供水的机会。地下水一直不仅仅是水。我们的科学已经成熟到认识到地下水是一种重要的能源,反之亦然的时候了。国家地下水协会、大学、联邦机构和行业等组织都在推动这一讨论中发挥着重要作用。通过共同努力,我们的社区可以确保地下水科学不仅有助于水安全,而且有助于决定未来几十年的能源系统。数据共享不适用于本文,因为在当前研究期间没有生成或分析数据集。
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引用次数: 0
Finite Element Implementation of SAFE for Asymmetric Stream-Aquifer Flow Exchange 非对称流-含水层流量交换的SAFE有限元实现。
IF 2.6 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-09-13 Epub Date: 2026-08-15 DOI: 10.1111/gwat.70098
G. Kourakos, H. Morel-Seytoux, E. C. Dogrul, T. Kadir, H. E. Dahlke

Climate change and human activities increasingly affect interconnected stream–aquifer systems, motivating continued evaluation of how stream–aquifer interactions are represented in integrated groundwater–surface water models. Most groundwater models quantify stream–aquifer exchange using an empirical riverbed leakance parameter that is predefined or calibrated from observed head differences between the stream and aquifer. Here, we describe the numerical implementation of the analytical stream aquifer flow exchange (SAFE) formulation (Morel-Seytoux et al., 2018) within the finite-element-based Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM). SAFE represents stream–aquifer exchange using physically based parameters and provides an alternative to commonly used first order exchange (FOE) formulations, such as the MODFLOW River Package (RIV). A key extension is the ability to quantify asymmetric stream–aquifer exchange arising from different groundwater heads on opposing sides of a stream, a capability not available in standard stream–aquifer interaction packages. Numerical experiments using hypothetical test cases and a large-scale regional application demonstrate that differences in conductance and connectivity parameterizations produce distinct spatial and temporal patterns of simulated exchange. Compared with FOE, the SAFE formulation produces smoother temporal transitions and reduced short-term variability in simulated exchange. These results demonstrate the importance of conceptual model formulation when interpreting simulated stream–aquifer exchange and provide a physically based alternative for large-scale integrated groundwater–surface water modeling.

气候变化和人类活动越来越多地影响相互关联的河流-含水层系统,促使人们继续评估河流-含水层相互作用如何在综合地下水-地表水模型中得到体现。大多数地下水模型使用经验河床泄漏参数来量化河流-含水层交换,该参数是预定义的或根据观察到的河流和含水层之间的水头差异校准的。在这里,我们描述了在基于有限元的综合水流模型(IWFM)中分析流含水层流量交换(SAFE)公式(Morel-Seytoux等人,2018)的数值实现。SAFE使用基于物理的参数表示溪流-含水层交换,为常用的一阶交换(FOE)公式(如MODFLOW River Package (RIV))提供了一种替代方案。一个关键的扩展是能够量化由河流两侧不同地下水水头引起的不对称河流-含水层交换,这是标准的河流-含水层相互作用包所不具备的能力。采用假设测试用例和大规模区域应用的数值实验表明,电导和连通性参数化的差异产生了不同的模拟交换的时空模式。与FOE相比,SAFE公式在模拟交换中产生更平滑的时间转换和更低的短期变异性。这些结果证明了概念模型公式在解释模拟河流-含水层交换时的重要性,并为大规模综合地下水-地表水模拟提供了一种基于物理的替代方法。
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引用次数: 0
Zamzam, the World's Most Sacred Groundwater Well: Mecca, Saudi Arabia 扎姆扎姆,世界上最神圣的地下水井:沙特阿拉伯麦加。
IF 2.6 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-09-13 Epub Date: 2026-08-24 DOI: 10.1111/gwat.70101
Paul Whincup
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引用次数: 0
Modern Subsurface Contaminant Hydrology 现代地下污染物水文学
IF 2.6 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-09-13 Epub Date: 2026-04-28 DOI: 10.1111/gwat.70075
Jessica Meyer
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引用次数: 0
Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage: Groundwater for Efficient Data Center Cooling in the United States 蓄水层热能储存:美国高效数据中心冷却的地下水。
IF 2.6 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-07-10 Epub Date: 2026-05-26 DOI: 10.1111/gwat.70084
Upasana Pandey, Andrew J. Stumpf, Yu-Feng F. Lin

Data centers are energy end users with the fastest growing need for electricity in the United States, mainly because of the rapid expansion of cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI). A substantial portion of this electricity, between 10% and 40%, is used for cooling. As the number of data centers increases and the sector's energy demand continues to rise exponentially, there is an urgent need to explore the use of alternative energy systems that are more efficient and sustainable. This article explores aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) as a technically feasible and currently underutilized solution for data center cooling in the United States. Previous case studies from Europe and assessments based in the United States are considered, and the potential of ATES for reducing electricity usage for data centers, which would reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions and support sustainable energy operations.

数据中心是美国电力需求增长最快的能源终端用户,主要是因为云计算和人工智能(AI)的快速扩张。这些电力的很大一部分,在10%到40%之间,用于冷却。随着数据中心数量的增加和该行业的能源需求继续呈指数级增长,迫切需要探索使用更高效和可持续的替代能源系统。本文探讨了含水层热能储存(ATES)作为技术上可行且目前未充分利用的美国数据中心冷却解决方案。本文考虑了以前来自欧洲的案例研究和基于美国的评估,以及ATES在减少数据中心用电量方面的潜力,这将减少总体温室气体排放并支持可持续能源运营。
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引用次数: 0
Satellite Remote Sensing for Water Management 水管理卫星遥感
IF 2.6 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-07-10 Epub Date: 2026-05-05 DOI: 10.1111/gwat.70079
Wondwosen M. Seyoum
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引用次数: 0
Discharge-Targeted Hydraulic Tomography to Quantify and Locate Aquifer Discharge 以流量为目标的水力断层成像技术量化和定位含水层流量。
IF 2.6 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-07-10 Epub Date: 2026-05-15 DOI: 10.1111/gwat.70081
Konstantin Drach, Carsten Leven, Olaf A. Cirpka

Quantifying and localizing groundwater discharge is inherently difficult. It requires knowledge about hydraulic conductivity and the hydraulic gradient on the scale of interest. Conventional hydraulic testing, such as pumping tests, may fail in the presence of heterogeneity and complex structural boundaries. While advanced 2D and 3D hydraulic tomography may resolve small-scale heterogeneity, it is typically limited to small spatial scales and requires costly field installations. We propose a simplified tomographic approach using a limited number of pumping and observation wells spatially distributed over a well profile in the order of 100 m transverse to the direction of ambient flow. To infer the spatially variable hydraulic-conductivity field from drawdown data with its uncertainty, we apply an iterative ensemble smoother. Subsequently, the posterior ensemble of hydraulic-conductivity fields is used to calculate total and specific discharge based on the observed ambient hydraulic heads in the same wells. We test our approach in a synthetic scenario mimicking a channel-like aquifer such as the quaternary fill in a small river valley. The results demonstrate that multiple spatially distributed pumping tests are suitable to quantify total discharge and its associated uncertainty. The approach is more reliable than a conventional one that estimates effective transmissivity from fitting analytical solutions to pumping-test data. The tomographic analysis additionally allows locating spatial patterns of specific discharge at a resolution similar to the spacing of the wells, which may be important when assessing and remediating contaminant plumes.

地下水排放的量化和局部化本身就是困难的。它需要有关水力导电性和水力梯度的知识。传统的水力试验,如抽水试验,在非均质性和复杂结构边界存在时可能失败。虽然先进的2D和3D水力层析成像技术可以解决小规模的非均质性问题,但通常仅限于小空间尺度,并且需要昂贵的现场安装。我们提出了一种简化的层析方法,使用有限数量的泵送井和观测井,这些井在空间上分布在与环境流动方向横向100米的井剖面上。为了从具有不确定性的压降数据中推断出空间可变的水力导电性场,我们采用了迭代集合平滑法。随后,根据观察到的同口井的环境水头,利用水力传导场的后验集合计算总流量和比流量。我们在一个模拟河道样含水层的合成场景中测试了我们的方法,比如一个小河谷的第四纪填充物。结果表明,多个空间分布的抽水试验适合于量化总流量及其相关不确定性。该方法比传统方法更可靠,传统方法是通过拟合分析解和泵送测试数据来估计有效透射率。层析分析还可以以类似于井间距的分辨率定位特定排放的空间模式,这在评估和修复污染羽流时可能很重要。
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引用次数: 0
Leaky Sewers Hydraulically Disconnect from Groundwater: A Proof-of-Concept 漏水的下水道与地下水水力断开:概念验证。
IF 2.6 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-07-10 Epub Date: 2026-06-02 DOI: 10.1111/gwat.70083
Aaron Peche, Fritz Kalwa, Syed Mohaiminul Islam, Georg Houben, Thomas Graf, Sven Altfelder

Leakage from aging sewer and stormwater pipes into the subsurface poses significant environmental risks and threatens the integrity of urban infrastructure, primarily through the degradation of groundwater quality and the alteration of urban water balances. While the presence of defects within pipe networks is well-documented, accurately quantifying volumetric exchange fluxes remains a challenge due to the complex, nonlinear interactions between the pipe, the surrounding variably saturated soil, and the fluctuating groundwater level. Current modeling approaches often overlook the threshold behaviors of these systems, leading to potential inaccuracies in leakage estimation. In this study, we show for the first time that leaky pipes can become hydraulically disconnected from the underlying groundwater, a phenomenon analogous to well-known river–groundwater interactions that include disconnection. In a sewer–groundwater context, hydraulic disconnection is restricted to point sources and is strongly influenced by colmation/clogging. Through numerical modeling of a hypothetical case study, we show that the leakage flux from the pipe (in absolute terms) initially increases with declining groundwater levels, until a critical depth below the leaky pipe is reached. After this point, the hydraulic communication from the groundwater to the leaky pipe stops and the leakage flux can be considered constant. In a sensitivity analysis, we demonstrate the impact of the individual hydraulic parameters of the leaky-pipe-groundwater system on the hydraulic disconnection. We further modify the properties of the aquifer material, resulting in a hydraulic disconnection depth of 0.89 m, 1.77 m and 4.00 m below pipe for sand, loamy sand and sandy loam aquifers, respectively. This insight has important implications for leakage modeling: once hydraulic disconnection occurs, the leakage flux becomes independent of groundwater dynamics. The present study provides a proof-of-concept for the mechanism by which leaky sewers hydraulically disconnect from groundwater.

老化的下水道和雨水管道渗漏到地下,主要是通过降低地下水质量和改变城市水平衡,对城市基础设施的完整性构成重大的环境风险和威胁。虽然有充分的证据表明管网中存在缺陷,但由于管道、周围可变饱和土壤和波动的地下水位之间复杂的非线性相互作用,准确量化体积交换通量仍然是一项挑战。目前的建模方法往往忽略了这些系统的阈值行为,导致泄漏估计的潜在不准确性。在这项研究中,我们首次表明,漏水的管道可以与地下地下水水力断开,这种现象类似于众所周知的河流-地下水相互作用,包括断开。在下水道-地下水环境中,水力断裂仅限于点源,并且受到沉降/堵塞的强烈影响。通过一个假设的案例研究的数值模拟,我们表明管道泄漏通量(以绝对值计算)最初随着地下水位的下降而增加,直到达到泄漏管道以下的临界深度。在此点之后,地下水与泄漏管道的水力通信停止,泄漏通量可以认为是恒定的。在敏感性分析中,我们证明了泄漏管道-地下水系统的各个水力参数对水力断开的影响。我们进一步修改了含水层材料的性质,使砂层、壤土层和砂壤土含水层的水力断距深度分别为管道以下0.89 m、1.77 m和4.00 m。这一见解对泄漏建模具有重要意义:一旦水力断开,泄漏通量就与地下水动力学无关。目前的研究为漏水的下水道从地下水中水力断开的机制提供了概念证明。
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引用次数: 0
Predicting Groundwater Hydrochemical Facies in Three Dimensions with Random Forest Classification, USA 基于随机森林分类的三维地下水水化学相预测,美国。
IF 2.6 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-07-10 Epub Date: 2026-04-24 DOI: 10.1111/gwat.70072
Paul E. Stackelberg, Katherine J. Knierim, Kenneth Belitz, Charles A. Cravotta III, R. Blaine McCleskey, Courtney D. Killian

A random forest classification (RFC) model was developed to predict hydrochemical facies (HCFs) of groundwater in three dimensions across the conterminous United States (CONUS). Major-ion data from 152,673 sites were used to categorize groundwater into one of six HCFs (CaMg-HCO3, NaK-HCO3, CaMg-SO4, NaK-SO4, Cl, or Mixed). These six HCFs were used as targets for RFC modeling. Model features that represent relevant geochemical processes and/or physical conditions were derived from previously published data. Additional model features were specifically engineered to support this analysis: elevation of the bottom of a well relative to the base of drinking water (ERDW) and six flags that relate geologic units to HCFs. The most important model feature was ERDW. The model was used to map HCFs at a 1-km2 resolution across CONUS and to depths of 400 m below the base of drinking water (which varies from 22 m to 2 km). Model predictions are consistent with expectations. CaMg-HCO3 is predicted to occur near the water table in more humid settings, and areas underlain by carbonate or crystalline rocks. At depths below the base of drinking-water supplies, the model predicts a rapid transition from HCO3 HCFs to Cl. Model predictions are accurate based on point data, and data averaged across hydrogeologic regions and with depth. Model predictions of HCFs could be used for multiple purposes, including the mapping of salinity and other groundwater characteristics.

建立了一个随机森林分类(RFC)模型,在三维空间上预测美国(CONUS)地下水的水化学相(hcf)。来自152,673个站点的主要数据将地下水分为6种HCFs (CaMg-HCO3、NaK-HCO3、CaMg-SO4、NaK-SO4、Cl或Mixed)。将这6种hcf作为RFC建模的目标。代表相关地球化学过程和/或物理条件的模式特征来自先前发表的数据。为了支持这一分析,还特意设计了其他模型特征:井底相对于饮用水底部的高度(ERDW),以及将地质单元与hcf联系起来的六个标志。最重要的模型特征是ERDW。该模型被用于绘制横跨CONUS和饮用水底部以下400米深度(从22米到2公里不等)的1平方公里分辨率的氢氯氟烃地图。模型预测与预期一致。据预测,CaMg-HCO3将发生在更潮湿的地下水位附近,以及由碳酸盐或结晶岩石覆盖的地区。该模型预测,在饮用水供应基础以下的深度,HCO3 HCFs会迅速转变为Cl。模型的预测基于点数据,以及水文地质区域和深度的平均数据。氢氯氟烃的模型预测可用于多种目的,包括绘制盐度和其他地下水特征图。
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引用次数: 0
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