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Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of flood resilience in Beibu Gulf Urban Agglomeration 北部湾城市群抗洪能力的时空演变及影响因素
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104905
In the context of global climate change and rapid urbanization, enhancing flood resilience is essential for mitigating urban flood risk. However, few studies have conducted long-term, cross-scale dynamic evaluations of flood resilience and analyzed its influencing factors and mechanisms. Taking the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration as the study area, a long-term, cross-scale dynamic evaluation index system based on the “Robustness-Resistance-Recovery” (3Rs) framework was developed to assess the spatiotemporal evolution of flood resilience from 2000 to 2020. Furthermore, the optimal parameters-based geographical detector model is employed to identify the key influencing factors and mechanisms. The results reveal that pre-flood robustness is lower in coastal areas and higher in inland areas. In the during-flood stage, cities with greater comprehensive power exhibit stronger resistance. Post-flood recovery is higher in city centers and marginal mountainous areas, while coastal and inland low-lying areas show lower recovery. The flood resilience of urban agglomerations has improved in recent years, largely due to the enhancement of urban flood control infrastructure and healthcare capacity. However, disparities between cities persist. From 2000 to 2020, economic factors have been the primary drivers of improved flood resilience, while ecological factors have gained increasing importance over the past decade. These findings provide valuable insights for flood prevention, mitigation, and resilience management in urban agglomerations. The developed dynamic evaluation index system offers a reference framework for evaluating flood resilience in other regions.
在全球气候变化和快速城市化的背景下,提高抗洪能力对于降低城市洪水风险至关重要。然而,很少有研究对抗洪能力进行长期、跨尺度的动态评价,并分析其影响因素和机制。本研究以北部湾城市群为研究区域,基于 "稳健性-抵抗力-恢复力"(3Rs)框架,建立了一个长期、跨尺度的动态评价指标体系,以评估 2000 年至 2020 年洪涝灾害恢复力的时空演变。此外,还采用了基于最优参数的地理探测器模型来确定关键影响因素和机制。结果表明,洪水前沿海地区的抗洪能力较低,内陆地区较高。在洪灾期间,综合实力较强的城市表现出较强的抗灾能力。洪灾后,城市中心区和边缘山区的恢复能力较强,而沿海和内陆低洼地区的恢复能力较弱。近年来,城市群的抗洪能力有所提高,这主要归功于城市防洪基础设施和医疗保健能力的增强。然而,城市之间的差距依然存在。从 2000 年到 2020 年,经济因素一直是提高抗洪能力的主要驱动力,而生态因素在过去十年中则变得越来越重要。这些发现为城市群的防洪、减灾和抗洪管理提供了宝贵的启示。所开发的动态评估指标体系为评估其他地区的抗洪能力提供了参考框架。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of tangible coastal inundation damage related to critical infrastructure and buildings: The case of Mauritius Island 评估沿海洪水对重要基础设施和建筑物造成的有形破坏:毛里求斯岛案例
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104909
Storm tides, which combine sea level rise (SLR), astronomical tides, and storm surges generated by tropical cyclones, pose significant threats to coastal zones, leading to flooding and substantial damage to property and infrastructure.There is a clear upward trend in the frequency of storms reaching tropical cyclone strength. A notable example is Cyclone Belal, which struck Mauritius on January 2024, during high tide, causing extensive infrastructure damage. This underscores the importance of conducting risk assessments to identify vulnerable areas and develop risk reduction strategies. However, quantitative risk assessments of storm tides are often challenging due to the lack of long-term projections. To address this, we developed a GIS-based flood model for Mauritius to simulate inundation areas and quantify the assets exposed to flooding. Under current conditions, the estimated damage exposure from extreme coastal flood events with return periods of 50–500 years is significant, with 6.2 % and 27.1 % of the area inundated, respectively. By 2100, damage exposure associated with these events is projected to increase by a factor of 1.1, with minimal variation between sea-level rise scenarios (0.3m). However, by 2200 and 2300, damage exposure is expected to rise by factors of 3.1 and 6.6, respectively. In the worst-case scenario for 2500, Mauritius could experience maximum inundation of 66.3 km2, with buildings covering 5.02 km2 submerged. Additionally, this study presents a detemporalized inundation scenario to assess impacts from any coastal flood event. This approach enables the identification of critical thresholds (1.5 m and 4.5 m) and, beyond which significant increases in damage exposure are likely, and allows for evaluating adaptation strategies against user-defined levels of change, rather than relying solely on predefined scenarios. These findings highlight the urgent need for strategic sectoral interventions to address the widespread consequences of coastal inundation, especially in light of critical thresholds for remedial action.
风暴潮结合了海平面上升(SLR)、天文潮汐和热带气旋产生的风暴潮,对沿海地区构成重大威胁,导致洪水泛滥,对财产和基础设施造成巨大破坏。一个明显的例子是,2024 年 1 月,"贝拉勒 "气旋在涨潮期间袭击了毛里求斯,造成大量基础设施损坏。这凸显了进行风险评估以确定脆弱地区和制定降低风险战略的重要性。然而,由于缺乏长期预测,风暴潮的定量风险评估往往具有挑战性。为解决这一问题,我们为毛里求斯开发了基于地理信息系统的洪水模型,以模拟洪水淹没区域并量化暴露于洪水中的资产。在当前条件下,重现期为 50-500 年的极端沿海洪水事件造成的损失估计很大,分别有 6.2% 和 27.1% 的地区被淹没。预计到 2100 年,这些事件造成的损失将增加 1.1 倍,不同海平面上升方案之间的差异极小(0.3 米)。然而,到 2200 年和 2300 年,损失风险预计将分别增加 3.1 倍和 6.6 倍。在 2500 年的最坏情况下,毛里求斯最大淹没面积为 66.3 平方公里,5.02 平方公里的建筑物被淹没。此外,本研究还提出了一种分时段淹没情景,以评估任何沿海洪水事件的影响。这种方法可以确定临界阈值(1.5 米和 4.5 米),超过这些阈值,损失可能会显著增加,还可以根据用户定义的变化水平评估适应战略,而不是仅仅依赖于预定义的情景。这些研究结果突出表明,迫切需要采取战略性部门干预措施,以应对沿海淹没造成的广泛后果,特别是考虑到补救行动的临界阈值。
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引用次数: 0
Geospatial analysis of alarmingly increasing flood vulnerability and disaster risk within the northeast himalaya region of India 对印度东北部喜马拉雅地区惊人增长的洪水脆弱性和灾害风险的地理空间分析
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104920
Geoenvironmetally the eastern part of the Himalaya region is highly vulnerable to flood and other natural disasters as it consists of fragmented and tectonically active geology and geomorphology, very high monsoon rainfall (>360 cm) and subsequent runoff, rugged hilly terrain with high ranges of elevation and slope, dense drainage density etc. Other hand, the unplanned developmental activities keep going and scaling up this vulnerability and risk to floods and other disasters. Addressing this burning issue, a geospatial technology-based case study of the Kohima district, Nagaland state (India), is presented here. The geospatial "technology-based" analyses employed in the study are thematic GIS mapping of flood hazard, vulnerability and risk controlling factors; and performing overlay operation using the AHP model in GIS software to generate spatio-temporal map layers of flood vulnerability and disaster risk. Results reveal that the region is under a high rate of monsoon climate change (increasing temperature, rainfall, rainy days, rainfall events and flood events with an annual rate of 0.35 %, 1.12 %, 0.36 %, 2.67 % and 4 % respectively), land use degradation (increasing built-up area with 0.60 %, annual rate decreasing forest, shrubs and water bodies with 0.80 % accumulated annual rates respectively) and demographic changes (increasing urban as well and rural population density with 0.53–2.10 % and 0.55–2.14 % respectively). Accumulated impacts of climate change, land use degradation and demographic changes causing an increase in flood hazard, vulnerability and disaster risk. Flood hazard zones and vulnerability zones extending with 0.50 % (4.89 km2) and 0.84 % (8.16 km2) annual rates respectively, subsequently the flood risk zones categorized as a moderate, high and very high potential risk, have been spreading out with a yearly rate of 0.07 % (0.65 km2), 0.13 % (1.31 km2) and 0.03 % (0.33 km2) respectively. It decreases the area under low and very low-risk zones by 0.17 % (1.63 km2) and 0.07 % (0.65 km2) annual rates respectively. Following up on these annual rates, the spatial distribution of flood hazard, vulnerability and risk zones for the next decade (2031–2040) have also been projected, revealing alarming situations, if flood disaster risk reduction (F-DRR) measures were not implemented in timely. It is strongly believed that the proposed study will be very useful for district-level planners and administrators to implement sustainable development planning, for the scientific fraternity to enhance their research work in the field of flood disaster management and for individuals for their safety in terms of life and property.
从地质环境来看,喜马拉雅山脉东部地区非常容易遭受洪水和其他自然灾害,因为这里的地质和地貌破碎且构造活跃,季风降雨量(360 厘米)和随后的径流量非常大,丘陵地形崎岖不平,海拔和坡度范围大,排水系统密集等。另一方面,无计划的开发活动持续不断,加剧了洪水和其他灾害的脆弱性和风险。针对这一紧迫问题,本文介绍了一项基于地理空间技术的印度那加兰邦科希马县案例研究。研究中采用的地理空间 "基于技术 "的分析方法是:绘制洪水灾害、脆弱性和风险控制因素的专题地理信息系统地图;在地理信息系统软件中使用 AHP 模型进行叠加操作,生成洪水脆弱性和灾害风险的时空地图层。结果显示,该地区正处于季风气候变化(气温、降雨量、降雨日数、降雨事件和洪水事件分别以每年 0.35 %、1.12 %、0.36 %、2.67 % 和 4 % 的速度增加)、土地利用退化(建筑面积以每年 0.60 %,森林、灌木和水体年均减少率分别为 0.80 %)和人口变化(城市和农村人口密度分别增加 0.53-2.10 % 和 0.55-2.14 %)。气候变化、土地利用退化和人口变化的累积影响导致洪水危害、脆弱性和灾害风险增加。洪水危害区和洪水易发区分别以每年 0.50 %(4.89 平方公里)和 0.84 %(8.16 平方公里)的速度扩大,而被划分为中度、高度和极高度潜在风险的洪水风险区则以每年 0.07 %(0.65 平方公里)、0.13 %(1.31 平方公里)和 0.03 %(0.33 平方公里)的速度扩大。低风险区和极低风险区的面积每年分别减少 0.17 %(1.63 平方公里)和 0.07 %(0.65 平方公里)。根据这些年增长率,还预测了未来十年(2031-2040 年)洪水灾害、脆弱性和风险区的空间分布情况,如果不及时实施洪水灾害风险降低(F-DRR)措施,情况将令人担忧。我们坚信,拟议的研究将非常有助于地区一级的规划者和管理者实施可持续发展规划,有助于科学界加强在洪水灾害管理领域的研究工作,也有助于个人的生命和财产安全。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the effects of time pressure and distracting elements in an Augmented Reality game for emergency preparedness 探索增强现实游戏中时间压力和干扰因素对应急准备的影响
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104900
The development of emergency preparedness and response skills is crucial for ensuring individual safety and well-being during natural disasters. Realistic and engaging games can effectively promote these skills. This paper explores the impact of introducing additional game objects as distractors and time pressure on user experience and willingness to prepare for emergencies in an Augmented Reality (AR) game. Additional, distracting game elements and time pressure are included in the game scenario to simulate the cognitive demands and stress experienced in real emergency situations. To investigate the impact of distracting game elements and time pressure, a within-subjects study was conducted with 52 participants who played two different versions of an AR game designed to help locate recommended items for an emergency grab bag. In the first version, participants focused solely on finding the recommended items, while in the second version, distractors and a timer were introduced to emphasize the urgency of packing the bag. The results showed no significant difference in user experience between the two versions. However, the version with time pressure and distractors demonstrated a significant improvement in attitudes and perceived behavioral control regarding immediate actions in response to evacuation warnings. Qualitative feedback from participants supported these effects. These findings suggest new directions for further research and highlight the potential of AR games to enhance emergency response strategies.
培养应急准备和响应技能对于确保自然灾害期间的个人安全和福祉至关重要。逼真且引人入胜的游戏可以有效提高这些技能。本文探讨了在增强现实(AR)游戏中引入额外游戏对象作为干扰因素和时间压力对用户体验和应急准备意愿的影响。在游戏场景中加入了额外的、分散注意力的游戏元素和时间压力,以模拟真实紧急情况下的认知需求和压力。为了研究分散注意力的游戏元素和时间压力的影响,我们对 52 名参与者进行了一项主体内研究,他们玩了两个不同版本的 AR 游戏,游戏的目的是帮助找到应急包的推荐物品。在第一个版本中,参与者只专注于寻找推荐物品,而在第二个版本中,则引入了干扰因素和计时器,以强调打包的紧迫性。结果显示,两个版本的用户体验没有明显差异。不过,有时间压力和分心因素的版本在应对疏散警告时立即采取行动的态度和感知行为控制方面有明显改善。参与者的定性反馈也支持这些效果。这些研究结果为进一步的研究提出了新的方向,并强调了 AR 游戏在增强应急响应策略方面的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Cues facilitating collective sensemaking during emergencies: Gaps, inconsistencies, and indicators 紧急情况下促进集体意识形成的线索:差距、不一致和指标
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104897
In emergency communications centers, call takers gather information from 9-1-1 callers which dispatchers then radio to first responders. This workflow changes, however, when communications specialists are introduced to work alongside call takers and dispatchers to make sense of information gathered from multiple physical and social sensors during emergencies. While the work of cross-functional communications teams stands to improve the timeliness and quality of situational awareness information dispatched to first responders, the sociotechnical requirements for collective sensemaking in next-generation emergency communications work remains understudied.
In this research-through-design study, a prototype dashboard and synthetic datasets were developed to examine how cues—informational features that prompt recognition and response—facilitated collective sensemaking among telecommunicators gathering information from 9-1-1 calls and social media during active assailant and flood emergency exercises. During these exercises, three types of cues—gaps, inconsistencies, and indicators—facilitated collective sensemaking by enabling the team to collaboratively assess and reassess incidents reported during the emergencies. However, these cues facilitated collective sensemaking only when paired with multiple resources and coordination mechanisms, including a common operational picture, domain ontology, and standard operating procedures, that allowed telecommunicators to recognize and respond to cues by seeking information to update and modify representations of events shared among members of the communications team. By theorizing cues as relationships between physical features of the environment and actors capable of recognizing and responding to these features, and conceptually defining types of cues that facilitate collective sensemaking, this study offers implications for the design of technologies and work organizations that support collective sensemaking processes.
在应急通信中心,接线员从 9-1-1 呼叫者那里收集信息,然后由调度员广播给急救人员。然而,当通信专家与接线员和调度员一起工作,对紧急情况下从多个物理和社会传感器收集到的信息进行分析时,这种工作流程就会发生变化。在这项通过设计进行的研究中,我们开发了一个原型仪表盘和合成数据集,以考察在主动攻击和洪水应急演习中,提示--促使识别和响应的信息特征--如何促进电信人员从 9-1-1 电话和社交媒体中收集信息的集体感知。在这些演习中,三种类型的线索--空白、不一致和指示器--通过使团队合作评估和重新评估紧急情况中报告的事件,促进了集体感知的形成。然而,这些线索只有在与多种资源和协调机制(包括共同运行图、领域本体论和标准操作程序)相配合时,才能促进集体感知的形成,从而使电信通讯员能够通过寻求信息来识别和响应线索,以更新和修改通讯团队成员之间共享的事件表述。本研究将线索理论化为环境的物理特征与能够识别和响应这些特征的参与者之间的关系,并从概念上定义了促进集体感知建立的线索类型,从而为设计支持集体感知建立过程的技术和工作组织提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
Urban flood hazard insights from multiple perspectives based on internet of things sensor data 基于物联网传感器数据的多角度城市洪水灾害洞察力
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104919
Floods are major global natural disasters that cause significant damage. Analyzing urban flood hazards is essential for urban planning and sustainable development. The shift toward proactive urban disaster prevention requires expanding flood hazard assessments beyond flood depth to encompass a broader range of factors to enhance resilience. This study introduces a multiple perspective analysis of urban flood hazards based on internet of things (IoT) sensor data, such as maximum flood depth, total flood events, average drainage time, average accumulation efficiency and average drainage efficiency. This research assesses detailed flood hazards of urban areas and points of interest (POIs) and finds a significant difference of up to 14.6 % in extreme-hazard areas when multiple hazard indicators are used, with the maximum flood depth indicator showing the highest proportion. For medium-hazard areas, the total flood event indicator yielded the highest proportion, accounting for up to 35.7 % of the area. The findings also indicate that POI flood hazards vary significantly depending on the indicator. Medical facilities were found to have extended impacts due to prolonged water accumulation and drainage times, despite infrequent flooding, suggesting that many locations are subject to a moderate hazard level. The study also highlights the heightened hazard of residential buildings in extreme scenarios, underscoring the need for enhanced flood mitigation in residential planning. This study emphasizes adopting multiple perspectives in flood hazard assessment, challenging the traditional reliance on single metrics. This study provides valuable insights for urban planners and policy-makers and advocates for a holistic approach to urban flood risk.
洪水是造成重大损失的全球性自然灾害。分析城市洪水灾害对城市规划和可持续发展至关重要。要实现积极主动的城市防灾转变,就必须将洪水危害评估扩展到洪水深度之外,以涵盖更广泛的因素,从而提高抗灾能力。本研究基于物联网(IoT)传感器数据,如最大洪水深度、洪水事件总数、平均排水时间、平均积水效率和平均排水效率,对城市洪水危害进行了多角度分析。这项研究详细评估了城市地区和兴趣点(POIs)的洪水危害,发现在使用多种危害指标时,极端危害地区的差异高达 14.6%,其中最大洪水深度指标所占比例最高。在中等灾害地区,总洪水事件指标所占比例最高,达 35.7%。研究结果还表明, POI 的洪水危害因指标的不同而有很大差异。研究发现,尽管洪水发生频率不高,但由于积水时间和排水时间较长,医疗设施受到的影响也较大,这表明许多地点的洪水危害程度处于中等水平。该研究还强调了住宅建筑在极端情况下的高度危险性,突出了在住宅规划中加强防洪减灾的必要性。本研究强调在洪水灾害评估中采用多种视角,对传统的单一指标依赖提出了挑战。本研究为城市规划者和政策制定者提供了宝贵的见解,并倡导采用综合方法来应对城市洪水风险。
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引用次数: 0
Climate change vulnerability assessment for adaptation planning in Uttarakhand, Indian Himalaya 为印度喜马拉雅山脉北阿坎德邦的适应规划进行气候变化脆弱性评估
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104938
Climate change vulnerability estimation at all spatial scales is imperative for the development of effective adaptation strategies in the biogeographically fragile Himalayan region. This study aims to estimate district-wise climate change vulnerability in the state of Uttarakhand for the year 2022 by integrating climatic, environmental, and socio-economic factors. Employing an integrated approach, nine components (climate change, natural disaster, ecosystem services, agriculture, socio-economic status, human resource capacity, infrastructure, basic facilities, and social/natural capital) incorporating a total of 63 indicators, are used to estimate exposure (E), sensitivity (S), adaptive capacity (AC) and the vulnerability of the study area. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used to assess the suitability and weights of all the indicators. The findings show that middle (1400–2400 m a.s.l.) and higher (>2400 m a.s.l.) districts of the state are more vulnerable (−0.68 to −1.50) than lower (1–1400 m a.s.l.) districts (0.16 to −0.26). Based on the vulnerability index (−0.68 to −1.50), five districts-Uttarkashi, Rudraprayag, Chamoli, Champawat, Pithoragarh, and Bageshwar are identified as priority districts for adaptation planning. The high vulnerability is primarily attributed to increased exposure to excessive precipitation, cold waves, cloudbursts, and flood events, coupled with high ecosystem sensitivity and low adaptive capacity. In contrast, the lower districts of the state benefit from better infrastructure, social and natural capital, and connectivity, which contribute to low vulnerability. The suggested strategies in the present study would help policymakers to allocate resources efficiently, fostering long-term resilience to climate change and sustainable development.
要在生物地理脆弱的喜马拉雅地区制定有效的适应战略,就必须对所有空间尺度的气候变化脆弱性进行估算。本研究旨在通过整合气候、环境和社会经济因素,估算 2022 年北阿坎德邦各地区的气候变化脆弱性。本研究采用综合方法,利用九个组成部分(气候变化、自然灾害、生态系统服务、农业、社会经济状况、人力资源能力、基础设施、基本设施和社会/自然资本)共 63 个指标来估算研究地区的暴露程度 (E)、敏感程度 (S)、适应能力 (AC) 和脆弱性。主成分分析(PCA)用于评估所有指标的适宜性和权重。研究结果表明,该州中等(1400-2400 米海拔)和较高(2400 米海拔)地区的脆弱性指数(-0.68 至-1.50)高于较低(1-1400 米海拔)地区的脆弱性指数(0.16 至-0.26)。根据脆弱性指数(-0.68 至-1.50),五个地区--Uttarkashi、Rudraprayag、Chamoli、Champawat、Pithoragarh 和 Bageshwar 被确定为适应规划的优先地区。这些地区的高脆弱性主要归因于受过度降水、寒潮、云雾骤降和洪水事件影响的程度增加,以及生态系统的高敏感性和低适应能力。相比之下,该州较低的地区受益于较好的基础设施、社会和自然资本以及连通性,这有助于降低脆弱性。本研究中建议的战略将有助于决策者有效地分配资源,促进对气候变化的长期适应能力和可持续发展。
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引用次数: 0
Population activity recovery: Milestones unfolding, temporal interdependencies, and relationship with physical and social vulnerability 人口活动的恢复:正在展开的里程碑、时间上的相互依赖以及与身体和社会脆弱性的关系
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104931
Understanding sequential community recovery milestones is crucial for proactive recovery planning and monitoring and targeted interventions. This study investigates these milestones related to population activities to examine their temporal interdependencies and evaluate the relationship between recovery milestones and physical (residential property damage) and socioeconomic vulnerability (through household income). This study leverages post-2017 Hurricane Harvey mobility data from Harris County to specify and analyze temporal recovery milestones and their interdependencies. The analysis examined four key milestones: return to evacuated areas, recovery of essential and non-essential services, and the rate of home-switch (moving out of residences). Robust linear regression validates interdependencies between across milestone lags and sequences: achieving earlier milestones accelerates subsequent recovery milestones. The study thus identifies six primary recovery milestone sequences. We found that socioeconomic vulnerability accounted through the median household income level, rather than physical vulnerability to flooding accounted through the property damage extent, correlates with recovery delays between milestones. We studied variations in recovery sequences across lower and upper quantiles of property damage extent and median household income: lower property damage extent and lower household income show greater representation in the “slowest to recover” sequence, while households with greater damage and higher income are predominant in the group with the “fastest recovery sequences”. Milestone sequence variability aligns closely with income, independent of physical vulnerability. This empowers emergency managers to effectively monitor and manage recovery efforts, enabling timely interventions.
了解连续的社区恢复里程碑对于积极的恢复规划、监测和有针对性的干预措施至关重要。本研究调查了这些与人口活动相关的里程碑,以研究其时间上的相互依赖性,并评估恢复里程碑与物理(住宅财产损失)和社会经济脆弱性(通过家庭收入)之间的关系。本研究利用哈里斯县 2017 年 "哈维 "飓风后的流动性数据,明确并分析了时间上的恢复里程碑及其相互依存关系。分析考察了四个关键的里程碑:返回疏散地区、基本和非基本服务的恢复以及家庭转换率(搬离住所)。稳健的线性回归验证了各里程碑滞后期和序列之间的相互依存关系:实现早期里程碑可加快后续恢复里程碑的实现。因此,本研究确定了六个主要的恢复里程碑序列。我们发现,通过家庭收入中位数计算的社会经济脆弱性,而不是通过财产损失程度计算的洪灾物理脆弱性,与里程碑之间的恢复延迟相关。我们研究了财产损失程度和家庭收入中位数的上下限恢复顺序的变化:财产损失程度较低和家庭收入较低的家庭在 "恢复最慢 "的顺序中占有较大比例,而财产损失程度较高和收入较高的家庭在 "恢复最快 "的顺序中占有较大比例。里程碑序列的变化与收入密切相关,与身体脆弱性无关。这使应急管理人员能够有效地监测和管理恢复工作,及时采取干预措施。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial analysis of major industrial risks of petroleum origin in urban areas - The case of the city of Hassi-Messaoud 城市地区源自石油的主要工业风险的空间分析 - 哈西-梅萨乌德市的案例
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104916
Aiming at an efficient management of its oil sector and ensuring safety for its population and property, Algeria is currently engaged in all-out assessment approach. Efficient management and safety prove to be crucial parameters in oil-related activity. The major risks degree of the severity of whatever nature have impacts of various and diverse dimensions. The current study presents an occasional paradox case that which combines all high-risk elements and specific factors associated with them in an urban environment, which is made fragile and vulnerable due to its heavy exposure to a highly probable danger. The city of Hassi-Messaoud, the most important component of the Country's economy, witnesses an alarming spatial development driven by an exceptional population growth. The latter is primarily expressed through the incessant influx of immigrants attracted by promising job prospects in the oil industry sector. Coupled with the uncontrolled population movement, the urban expansion lends itself to the most dramatic aspect of Hassi-Messaoud and eventually exposes it to certain dangers all the more as Hassi-Messaoud is located in an area subject to significant potential oil-based risks.
为了有效地管理其石油部门并确保其人口和财产的安全,阿尔及利亚目前正在进行全面评估。事实证明,高效管理和安全是石油相关活动的关键参数。重大风险的严重程度无论性质如何,都会产生各种不同的影响。目前的研究提出了一个偶然的矛盾案例,即在一个城市环境中结合了所有高风险因素和与之相关的特定因素,而这个城市环境由于极有可能面临危险而变得脆弱不堪。Hassi-Messaoud 市是该国经济最重要的组成部分,在人口超常增长的推动下,该市的空间发展令人震惊。人口增长的主要表现形式是被石油工业的良好就业前景所吸引的移民的不断涌入。由于人口流动不受控制,城市扩张成为 Hassi-Messaoud 最引人注目的一面,并最终使其面临更多的危险,因为 Hassi-Messaoud 位于一个存在重大潜在石油风险的地区。
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引用次数: 0
A novel spatial-aware deep learning approach for exploring the environmental context of terrorist attacks and armed conflicts 探索恐怖袭击和武装冲突环境背景的新型空间感知深度学习方法
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104921
The quantitative assessment of terrorist attacks and armed conflicts (TAACs) is a crucial component of global public safety research and is vital for societal stability and national security. This study addresses the spatial dependency of such events, i.e., the relationship between the outbreak of an event and its environment. Based on geographic big data and artificial intelligence (AI), we propose a spatial feature utilization pattern that takes into account the impact of the event environment, and established a deep learning (DL) framework of features within the joint event location and space neighborhood to improve the precision of the quantitative assessment. The results demonstrate that in scenarios under a combination of 14 social, natural, and geographic driving factors, models that incorporate spatial features outperform those that only use location features during both the training and testing phases. Furthermore, models that consider both location and spatial features outperform models using only a single feature across various evaluation metrics. Global attribution analysis further confirms the spatial dependency of events, manifested in the mutual influence on the likelihood of events occurring among adjacent cities and the correlation with various environmental factors, particularly elements related to human activities and living environments. We find that both prosperous urban centers and underdeveloped rural areas are hotspots for TAACs, and that such events more likely to occur in harsh climatic patterns characterized by high temperatures and low precipitation. This enhances our understanding and preparedness for managing and preventing such events.
恐怖袭击和武装冲突(TAACs)的定量评估是全球公共安全研究的重要组成部分,对社会稳定和国家安全至关重要。本研究探讨了此类事件的空间依赖性,即事件爆发与环境之间的关系。基于地理大数据和人工智能(AI),我们提出了一种考虑到事件环境影响的空间特征利用模式,并在事件位置和空间邻域联合范围内建立了特征深度学习(DL)框架,以提高定量评估的精度。结果表明,在 14 种社会、自然和地理驱动因素共同作用下的场景中,包含空间特征的模型在训练和测试阶段的表现均优于仅使用位置特征的模型。此外,同时考虑位置和空间特征的模型在各种评价指标上都优于只使用单一特征的模型。全局归因分析进一步证实了事件的空间依赖性,表现为相邻城市间事件发生可能性的相互影响,以及与各种环境因素的相关性,尤其是与人类活动和生活环境相关的因素。我们发现,繁荣的城市中心和欠发达的农村地区都是 TAAC 的热点地区,而且这类事件更有可能发生在以高温和低降水为特征的恶劣气候模式中。这增强了我们对管理和预防此类事件的理解和准备。
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International journal of disaster risk reduction
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