International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献

Heterogeneous effects of cyclones on households’ welfare: Evidence from Madagascar

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105305

Michael Keller, Francis Mulangu

Madagascar is among the most cyclone-prone countries in the world, with frequent and severe weather events posing significant risks to household welfare. This study investigates the impacts of cyclones on household dynamics in Madagascar, with a specific focus on expenditures, food security, and poverty. Employing a comprehensive analytical approach that integrates difference-in-differences, propensity score matching, and proxy parallel trend testing, we exploit a unique dataset derived from two rounds of Madagascar's nationally representative household survey, conducted in 2020 and 2022 covering over 19,000 households across cyclone-affected and unaffected regions. Affected households experienced a substantial 19 % reduction in household per capita expenditure, leading to an 11 % higher likelihood of falling below the poverty line. Food insecurity escalated, evident in a drop of 205 calories per person in daily consumption. Remarkably, households strategically allocated resources towards food expenses against non-food expenditures during crises, reflecting their prioritization in savings behaviour. Using windspeed, our analysis highlights notable spatial heterogeneity between different cyclones and within the same cyclone, where impact magnitude corresponds to cyclone intensity. These findings underscore the urgent need for international collaboration and national action to mitigate the adverse effects of cyclones. The international community should scale up disaster relief funding and invest in resilient infrastructure and early warning systems to honour the commitments made at the COP27 conference to support vulnerable nations like Madagascar. Concurrently, the Government of Madagascar should prioritize expanding social safety nets, improving cyclone preparedness, and targeting aid to households affected by cyclones to promote recovery and resilience.

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引用次数: 0

A holistic asset-level modelling framework for a comprehensive multi-hazard risk/impact assessment: Insights from the ICARIA project

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105319

Mattia Federico Leone , Giulio Zuccaro , Daniela De Gregorio , Agnese Turchi , Amanda Tedeschi , Marianne Büegelmayer-Blaschek , Athanasios Sfetsos , Ioannis Zarikos , Alex de la Cruz Coronas , Beniamino Russo

The frequency and intensity of climate- and weather-related phenomena have significantly increased over the past two decades, with future projections suggesting further escalation due to climate change. Compound events, involving coincident or consecutive hazards, and their cascading effects, often exacerbate the severity of disasters, resulting in greater damage than would result from isolated hazards. However, risk/impact assessments have predominantly used single-hazard approaches, limiting understanding of how multi-hazard interactions affect socio-eco-technological systems.

This paper presents a comprehensive asset-level modelling framework developed within the EU-funded Horizon Europe project ICARIA. The framework aims to assess risks/impacts and resilience to a wide range of natural phenomena, including droughts, heatwaves, extreme winds, wildfires, floods and landslides, as well as the potential cascading effects due to impacts on interdependent infrastructure systems. It enables the development of multi-hazard scenarios, data harmonisation, and the characterisation of exposure and vulnerability for different categories of elements at risk, particularly critical infrastructures and related services, thereby facilitating the estimation of direct and indirect damage. Furthermore, the framework incorporates coping, adaptive and transformative capacities as key-components of resilience, as well as human behavioural factors, into the modelling process.

Examples from initial testing of the framework on ICARIA case study regions are introduced to highlight the operational steps for its application, including the identification of reference multi-hazard risk/impact scenarios through event trees, the inventory of relevant modelling data and the interconnection of single hazard/impact models to determine the consequences of complex multi-hazard events on exposed assets and services.

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引用次数: 0

A fuzzy framework for risk analysis of dam-break flood in climate change scenarios

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105322

Anubhav Goel , V.V. Srinivas

The conventional Dam Break Risk (DBR) analysis methods do not consider qualitative (e.g., socio-environmental and ecological) losses in conjunction with quantitative (e.g., economic) losses. This article contributes a novel DBR analysis methodology in a fuzzy framework to address this issue. It quantifies risk effectively using a newly proposed Modified Aggregate Risk Index (MARI) that integrates information on three risk indicators (likelihood of dam-break flood, severity of consequent hazard, and exposure index). It can incorporate uncertain, ambiguous, and vague information on risk indicators by harnessing the advantages of both static and variable fuzzy set theories. The effect of uncertainty in weights assigned to different exposure indicators for MARI estimation is investigated by considering different options for weight estimation (conventional and fuzzy analytical hierarchy process, simplex fuzzy binary comparison method). The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is demonstrated through a study on the Hemavathy Dam (India) and its floodplain. Furthermore, to discern the effect of climate change on DBR, its future scenarios are determined by obtaining projections of MARI considering simulations of hydrometeorological variables from eleven CMIP6 GCMs (General Circulation Models) for four climate change scenarios (SSPs: 126, 245, 370, and 585). Results indicate that dam break/breach hazards are projected to be highest for SSP 585 scenario, but the highest DBR is projected for SSP 370 and 245 scenarios owing to differences in future projections of populations. The proposed methodology appears promising in determining information for devising DBR mitigation plans, even for dams in data-sparse areas.

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引用次数: 0

Staying or leaving: Unraveling the dynamics of evacuation decisions among floodplain residents in central Vietnam

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105315

Vo Hoang Ha , Nguyen Cong Dinh , Takeshi Mizunoya

Households often refuse to evacuate until floodwaters surpass their coping thresholds. Grasping the root causes of this behavior is crucial for implementing effective interventions amid escalating flood risks. While existing literature offers insights into evacuation decisions for various hazards, it overlooks key motivations and barriers specific to flood evacuation in rural Vietnam. This study endeavors to bridge this gap by investigating the factors influencing rural households' evacuation decisions in response to the significant 2020 floods in Central Vietnam. Data for analysis were gathered through in-person interviews with 407 households across Phong Dien, Quang Dien, and Huong Tra districts of Thua Thien Hue Province. The logistic regression model results disproved the influence of variables associated with sociodemographic characteristics, hazard proximity, and flood risk experience. The findings, meanwhile, underscore the impact of those related to threat appraisal, coping appraisal, trust in external support, and perceived evacuation barriers. Proper assessment of flood threats has emerged as a critical factor in promoting evacuation, whereas overconfidence in one's coping capacity and the overestimation of external support adversely affect evacuation decisions. Concerns about potential property loss further hinder evacuation motivation. The proposed interventions encompass prioritizing educational campaigns to clarify flood risk dynamics, categorizing household structure resilience against floods, highlighting challenges associated with self-evacuation, mitigating reliance on external support, enhancing living conditions in evacuation sites, and implementing security measures during flood seasons.

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引用次数: 0

Novel methodology for resilience assessment of critical infrastructure considering the interdependencies: A case study in water, transportation and electricity sector

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105271

Bawantha Rathnayaka , Dilan Robert , Varuna Adikariwattage , Chandana Siriwardana , Erica Kuligowski , Sujeeva Setunge , Dilanthi Amaratunga

Critical Infrastructures (CI) are vital for societal and economic stability, yet their resilience against disasters remains inadequately understood with the increasing interdependencies among the CIs. A better understanding of these interdependencies and the dynamic nature of CI functionalities is crucial for advancing disaster resilience assessment within engineering systems. This paper introduces a novel approach using a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) to assess resilience in interdependent CI systems. The DBN method enables a probabilistic evaluation of system resilience by incorporating interdependencies and capturing the temporal dynamics of system capacities. This approach offers a more detailed perspective on resilience by modelling system functionality using expected values of different functionality states over time. Using a case study in Sri Lankan electricity, water distribution, and road infrastructure sectors and 34 experts, this study examines the complex network of CIs. It demonstrates the applicability of the proposed methodology. P-values of the Chi-Square test performed between the variation of model-predicted resilience and expert assessments are significantly less than 0.05, confirming the model's validity. Additionally, this study explores the expansion of the methodology for resilience assessment under multiple hazards, emphasizing its real-world effectiveness. The findings highlight the efficacy of the proposed methodology and its potential to assist asset managers, owners, and decision-makers in informed resilience planning and optimization strategies. This comprehensive approach fills critical gaps in existing methodologies, offering a robust framework for assessing CI resilience in a dynamic and systematic nature.

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引用次数: 0

Education system response to an extreme shock analyzing the short, medium and long-term impact of the stronger earthquake in Chile

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105327

Mónica Jiménez-Martínez , Maribel Jiménez-Martínez

Education acts as a crucial engine for economic growth. However, in Chile, a country highly susceptible to earthquakes, these natural hazards threaten to undermine the benefits of an educated population. Given the limited research in this area, this article contributes by analyzing the short-, medium-, and long-term effects of one of the major earthquakes that struck Chile in 2010 on attendance rates across all educational levels. The study employs a robust identification strategy that integrates earthquake intensity measures with residential data and housing damage information to explore variations in exposure by district at the time of the quake. The methodology facilitates a comparative analysis of the earthquake's effects across cities with varying Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) levels and associated housing damage. Various estimation methods and sensitivity checks are implemented to validate the underlying hypotheses. The negative impact of the BioBío earthquake is evident in both the short term (within months of the event) and the medium term (one year following the earthquake), with high school and college students being the most severely affected, even three to five years after the disaster. However, this effect dissipates by 2017. Furthermore, based on the conducted tests, the detrimental effects of the earthquake and tsunami on educational attendance rates become significant only when PGA and housing damage reach extremely high levels. In contrast, no significant effects are observed at lower levels of either variable. Based on the hypotheses examined, several policy recommendations are proposed.

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引用次数: 0

A complex network approach to quantifying flood resilience in high-density coastal urban areas: A case study of Macau

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105335

Rui Zhang , Yangli Li , Chengfei Li , Tian Chen

Urban flood resilience is a critical challenge for high-density coastal cities, where traditional infrastructure-based approaches often fail to capture the dynamic interactions between physical systems, functional recovery, and cascading disruptions. This study introduces a novel resilience assessment framework based on complex network theory, applied to the Macau Peninsula as a case study. By modeling urban infrastructure as an interconnected network of nodes (buildings) and edges (roads), the framework quantifies resilience through three core capacities: resistance, absorption, and recovery. The analysis integrates scenario-based flood simulations with network metrics to assess system vulnerabilities and identify key determinants of resilience. Results reveal significant weaknesses in Macau's high-density urban areas, particularly under compound flood events combining storm surges and extreme rainfall. Findings underscore the critical role of road network redundancy and shelter accessibility, as areas with lower redundancy experience prolonged recovery times. Model validation confirms the framework's effectiveness in quantifying resilience dynamics, though its current focus on physical infrastructure presents limitations in capturing socioeconomic and institutional factors. Nonetheless, this study establishes a scalable foundation for integrating such dimensions in future research. By bridging network topology with functional recovery dynamics, this work advances the theoretical understanding of urban flood resilience while offering actionable insights for policymakers to prioritize infrastructure investments and resilience planning in coastal cities.

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引用次数: 0

The “fallacy of composition” as an ethical challenge facing scientific research in disaster-affected areas: The 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake and Tsunami

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105359

Yuta Hara , Kimiko Takeda , Ryohei Yamashita , Ryo Saito , Daisuke Sasaki , Kiyomi Hayashi , Tatsuto Aoki

Research surveys in disaster-affected areas always conflict between providing important information and recommendations regarding the actual status of damage, recovery, and reconstruction and, contrastingly, the need for more careful ethical considerations. It has been reported that the 2004 Aceh Tsunami and the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, certain research activities caused difficulties for afflicted people and affected areas. The above can be divided into two main categories: the problem of the capacity, burden, and exhaustion of the research subjects and the ethical issue related to the methods, content, and approach of individual studies. However, the former analysis of solutions remains almost completely unaddressed in disaster science. Thus, this study considered how academia should behave, collaborate, and coordinate through the case of Japan in 2024. As a result, while Japan has a comprehensive federation of researchers and academic societies, coordinating the research activities has been challenging. This difficulty stems from the federation’s lack of authority to control academic societies and researchers, lack of consensus building regarding the “fallacy of composition” in disaster science, and the involvement of numerous stakeholders. The plethora of research opportunities and the various grants have been identified as risk factors contributing to project fragmentation and research duplication. It was suggested that questions could improve the composition of grant reviews to prevent research duplication and the depletion of subject areas. Furthermore, it is crucial to pre-determine which university or institution would take the lead when a disaster occurs in each region.

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引用次数: 0

Are hurricane-driven forest management decisions coupled with rising urbanization affecting the forest carbon dynamics in the Gulf of Mexico? A case study from Perdido watershed in the Panhandle Florida

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105273

Asiful Alam , Puneet Dwivedi

Understanding the impacts of hurricane-driven forest management and urbanization on forest carbon is vital for balancing climate mitigation and sustainable land use. It is especially true as these factors significantly influence carbon storage, emissions, and forest resilience, shaping global carbon budgets and informing adaptive strategies and policies. Since 2001, urbanization in the Gulf of Mexico has risen annually by 2.55 %, alongside increasing hurricane frequency. This study examines how urban growth and landowner responses to frequent hurricanes affect carbon dynamics in Florida's Perdido watershed, using a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model for land use projection and the InVEST model for carbon quantification. Nine scenarios combining low (LUR), current (CUR), and high (HUR) urbanization rates with 0 %, 25 %, and 50 % increases in hurricane frequency (HF) were analyzed. By 2050, urban land ranged from 5.28 % to 6.12 %, while forestland spanned 40.3 %–47.6 %. Forest conservation increased by 3.1 % (LUR+HF50 %) and 3.7 % (HUR+HF50 %) compared to HF25 % scenarios. Carbon storage varied from 466.5 thousand metric tons (LUR+HF25 %) to 1,055.1 thousand metric tons (LUR+HF50 %) and from 1,213.2 thousand metric tons (HUR+HF25 %) to 1,572.2 thousand metric tons (HUR+HF50 %), reflecting higher carbon sequestration with greater conservation efforts. These findings highlight the need for targeted policies to mitigate natural hazards, promote resilience, and support sustainable land use planning.

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引用次数: 0

Interactions of structural disaster management in landslide prevention: A qualitative study through the multi-level perspective (MLP) and figurational sociology from the lessons of the Lua ethnic community in Thailand

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105357

Annop Yiengthaisong , Peson Chobphon , Thongphon Promsaka Na Sakolnakorn

The emphasis on disaster risk reduction (DRR) has long been discussed alongside sustainability. However, achieving the goals of DRR remains a significant challenge for the global community due to differing paradigms in disaster management across multiple dimensions, such as the prioritization of top-down and bottom-up approaches, the lack of clarity in operational frameworks that fail to align with set objectives, and structural mechanisms at the superstructure level that are inefficiently linked to substructure-level operations. This study employs the MLP framework and figurational sociology as analytical tools to explore strategies for overcoming these limitations. The research examines policy-level actions and the societal transition processes involved in managing landslide disasters within a Thailand community that is facing high complexity in its issues. The findings indicate that the Community-Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) concept is a crucial mechanism for bridging practical gaps toward achieving the goals outlined in the SFDRR. Additionally, CBDRM enhances the efficiency of disaster management processes by complementing operations across the landscape, regime, and niche levels. Furthermore, the CBDRM concept is pivotal in integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches, acting as a "window of opportunity" for disaster management at all levels.

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引用次数: 0