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Cross-system cascades as drivers of the electrification pathway in net-zero transitions 跨系统级联作为净零转型电气化途径的驱动因素
IF 27.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01728-0
Frank W. Geels, Allan Dahl Andersen
While negative sustainability effects of cross-system interactions are well studied, positive cross-system cascades are less well understood. This Perspective shows that these cascade dynamics are already important in net-zero electrification transitions and will probably become more important in the coming years due to positive interactions between core innovations (including solar-photovoltaics, wind power, batteries, heat pumps, electric furnaces and green hydrogen), a key resource (net-zero electricity) and various complementary innovations. This Perspective discusses 12 cross-system cascade processes across technology, resource, actor and institutional dimensions. The Perspective also provides actionable policy recommendations for further stimulating positive cross-system cascades and accelerating net-zero transitions. Positive cross-system cascades in sustainability transitions are underexplored, despite their potential to accelerate net-zero pathways. This Perspective analyses such cascades in the context of electrification, identifying 12 mechanisms across sociotechnical systems and offering policy recommendations to amplify their impact.
虽然跨系统相互作用的负面可持续性影响已经得到了很好的研究,但对积极的跨系统级联却知之甚少。这一观点表明,这些级联动力学在净零电气化转型中已经很重要,并且由于核心创新(包括太阳能光伏发电、风能、电池、热泵、电炉和绿色氢)、关键资源(净零电力)和各种互补创新之间的积极互动,在未来几年可能会变得更加重要。这个视角讨论了12个跨技术、资源、参与者和制度维度的跨系统级联过程。《展望》还为进一步刺激积极的跨系统级联效应和加速净零转型提供了可行的政策建议。可持续性转型中的积极的跨系统级联尚未得到充分探索,尽管它们有可能加速净零路径。本展望分析了电气化背景下的此类级联,确定了跨社会技术系统的12种机制,并提出了扩大其影响的政策建议。
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引用次数: 0
Unravelling the threads of microfibre terminology 解开微纤维术语的脉络
IF 27.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01734-2
Elisabeth Allen, Claudia E. Henninger, Jane Wood
Although researchers try to understand the physical and chemical impacts of fibre-shaped microscopic pollution, use of inconsistent terminology hinders collective progress. Here we call for a unified language as the essential foundation for coordinated research across disciplines and effective mitigation.
尽管研究人员试图了解纤维状微观污染的物理和化学影响,但使用不一致的术语阻碍了集体进步。在此,我们呼吁采用统一的语言,作为跨学科协调研究和有效缓解的必要基础。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of forestry decentralization on rural inequality in Nepal 尼泊尔林业分权对农村不平等的影响
IF 27.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01729-z
Nathan J. Cook, Krister P. Andersson, Michelle E. Benedum, Tara Grillos, Birendra K. Karna, Dil B. Khatri, Dilli P. Poudel
Decentralized approaches to natural resource governance can promote conservation while reducing poverty in the Global South. However, the local benefits under decentralized governance are often unequal, reflecting extant social inequalities. There is a lack of rigorous evidence from national-scale studies showing how decentralization programmes affect inequality compared with what is observed in decentralization’s absence, and extant theory leads to competing hypotheses about such effects. We use data from a large-scale forestry-sector decentralization programme in Nepal during 2001–2011 to test general theories regarding the effects of such initiatives on inequality. We analyse census micro-data from two nationwide censuses, which we merge with administrative data on the implementation of decentralization and analyse through a two-way fixed-effects estimation approach. We find evidence suggesting that Nepal’s programme delivers significant poverty-alleviating benefits to the dominant ethnic and caste groups and comparatively smaller benefits to members of marginalized minority groups, resulting in apparent local increases in rural inequality associated with the programme. Thus, even relatively progressive programmes, such as Nepal’s, may lead to potential trade-offs between poverty alleviation, environmental conservation and inequality outcomes. Improved compliance with equity provisions may help to equalize effects, as could more substantial targeted benefits. Decentralized natural resource governance is thought to aid conservation and reduce poverty, but its heterogeneous local effects are under-explored. A study in Nepal shows that forest governance decentralization reduces poverty but the benefits are greater for dominant ethnic and caste groups compared with minority ones.
分散的自然资源管理方法可以促进保护,同时减少全球南方的贫困。然而,分权治理下的地方利益往往是不平等的,反映了现存的社会不平等。与在没有权力下放的情况下观察到的情况相比,在全国范围内的研究中缺乏严谨的证据来表明权力下放计划如何影响不平等,现有的理论导致了关于这种影响的相互竞争的假设。我们使用2001-2011年尼泊尔大规模林业部门权力下放项目的数据来检验有关此类举措对不平等影响的一般理论。我们分析了两次全国人口普查的微观数据,我们将这些数据与分权实施的行政数据合并,并通过双向固定效应估计方法进行分析。我们发现有证据表明,尼泊尔的项目为占主导地位的种族和种姓群体带来了显著的扶贫效益,而对边缘化少数群体成员的效益相对较小,导致与该项目相关的当地农村不平等现象明显加剧。因此,即使是相对进步的方案,如尼泊尔的方案,也可能导致在减轻贫困、保护环境和不平等结果之间进行潜在的权衡。改善对公平条款的遵守可能有助于平衡效果,更实质性的目标利益也可能有助于平衡效果。分散的自然资源管理被认为有助于保护和减少贫困,但其对地方的不同影响尚未得到充分探讨。尼泊尔的一项研究表明,森林治理权力下放减少了贫困,但与少数民族和种姓群体相比,占主导地位的民族和种姓群体受益更大。
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引用次数: 0
Bridging the fuel tax revenue gap in the move to electric mobility 在转向电动汽车的过程中弥合燃油税收入差距
IF 27.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01712-8
Bessie Noll, Tobias S. Schmidt, Florian Egli
Governments worldwide collected US$923 billion in fuel taxes in 2023, revenues at risk with the transition to electric vehicles, especially in lower-income countries. Policymakers should anticipate and assess their own domestic exposure and develop policies to recover enough revenues from electric vehicles as the transition progresses.
2023年,世界各国政府征收了9230亿美元的燃油税,随着向电动汽车的过渡,收入面临风险,尤其是在低收入国家。政策制定者应该预测和评估自己的国内风险,并制定政策,随着转型的推进,从电动汽车中收回足够的收入。
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引用次数: 0
The electric vehicle transition and vanishing fuel tax revenues 电动汽车的转型和燃油税收的减少
IF 27.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01721-7
Bessie Noll, Tobias S. Schmidt, Florian Egli
As electric vehicle adoption accelerates globally, fuel tax revenues decline, exposing government budgets without a proposed replacement tax on electric vehicles. We estimate fuel tax transition exposure across 168 countries, demonstrating that relative exposure, in percentage of total government revenues, varies substantially by income level. Our analysis finds that global public revenues from fuel taxes totalled approximately US$900 billion in 2023. Crucially, we show that lower-income countries face disproportionately high exposure, experience frequent debt crises and possess limited institutional capacity to respond, potentially necessitating international support. As electric vehicle adoption rises, governments face shrinking fuel tax revenues without clear replacement policies. This study estimates this revenue loss across 168 countries and finds that lower-income nations are the most exposed and may need international support to manage the fiscal risks.
随着电动汽车在全球范围内的普及加速,燃油税收入下降,政府预算在没有提议对电动汽车征收替代税的情况下暴露无遗。我们估计了168个国家的燃油税转型风险,表明相对风险(占政府总收入的百分比)因收入水平而有很大差异。我们的分析发现,到2023年,全球燃油税的公共收入总额约为9000亿美元。至关重要的是,我们表明,低收入国家面临着不成比例的高风险敞口,经常经历债务危机,应对能力有限,可能需要国际支持。随着电动汽车的普及,政府面临着燃油税收入减少的问题,而没有明确的替代政策。本研究估计了168个国家的这一收入损失,并发现低收入国家受到的影响最大,可能需要国际支持来管理财政风险。
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引用次数: 0
Halving global ammonia emissions with cost-effective measures 采取具有成本效益的措施将全球氨排放量减少一半
IF 27.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01723-5
Xiuming Zhang, Yi Sun, Yujing Gao, Chen Wang, Xia Liang, Shu Kee Lam, Shaohui Zhang, Wilfried Winiwarter, Hans J. M. van Grinsven, Mark A. Sutton, Deli Chen, Baojing Gu
Excess ammonia (NH3) emissions from human activities pose severe threats to global ecosystems and human health. Although urgent control of NH3 emissions is needed, a comprehensive quantification of mitigation strategies and their cost-effectiveness is lacking on a global scale. Here we employ a multi-model framework to evaluate 32 mitigation measures across 7 sectors in 185 countries. Our analysis reveals that strategic implementation of technological and non-technological (policy and behavioural) measures could reduce global NH3 emissions by up to 60% at an average cost of US$7.4 per kilogram of NH3. The estimated implementation cost of US$274 ± 116 billion is far outweighed by the resulting environmental, health and resource benefits, which we indicatively estimate at US$722 ± 302 billion. Priority action in China and India could yield the largest net gains, whereas Sub-Saharan Africa faces limited cost-effectiveness owing to structural and economic barriers. Future scenarios indicate that ambitious implementation pathways could halve NH3 emissions by 2050, whereas weak climate action and inadequate nitrogen regulations would drive continued emission growth, leading to substantial environmental deterioration. These findings highlight both the feasibility and urgency of integrating NH3 control into multi-objective policies for food security, air quality and sustainable development. Man-made ammonia emissions have harmful effects on human health and ecosystems, yet global mitigation strategies remain underexploited. A study now finds that emissions could be halved cost-effectively by 2050 through targeted and prioritized measures, with benefits far outweighing costs.
人类活动产生的过量氨(NH3)排放对全球生态系统和人类健康构成严重威胁。虽然迫切需要控制NH3的排放,但在全球范围内缺乏对缓解战略及其成本效益的全面量化。在此,我们采用多模型框架评估185个国家7个部门的32项缓解措施。我们的分析表明,战略性地实施技术和非技术(政策和行为)措施可以减少全球NH3排放高达60%,平均成本为每公斤NH3 7.4美元。估计的执行费用为2740±1160亿美元,远远超过由此产生的环境、健康和资源效益,我们的指示性估计为7220±3020亿美元。中国和印度的优先行动可能产生最大的净收益,而撒哈拉以南非洲由于结构和经济障碍,成本效益有限。未来情景表明,雄心勃勃的实施路径可使NH3排放量到2050年减半,而气候行动不力和氮法规不完善将推动排放持续增长,导致环境严重恶化。这些发现强调了将NH3控制纳入粮食安全、空气质量和可持续发展的多目标政策的可行性和紧迫性。人为的氨排放对人类健康和生态系统产生有害影响,但全球缓解战略仍未得到充分利用。现在的一项研究发现,通过有针对性和优先考虑的措施,到2050年,排放量可以经济有效地减少一半,收益远远超过成本。
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引用次数: 0
Behaviourally informed climate policy 以行为为依据的气候政策
IF 27.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01716-4
Tobias Brosch
Supporting the shift towards more climate-friendly lifestyles needs legally enforced climate policies, but enforcement may result in undesired boomerang effects if policies are designed poorly. Now a study illustrates how behavioural insights can improve climate policy design.
支持向气候友好型生活方式的转变需要法律强制执行的气候政策,但如果政策设计不当,执行可能会导致不希望的自食其果。现在,一项研究阐明了行为洞察力如何能够改善气候政策设计。
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引用次数: 0
An empirically based dynamic approach to sustainable climate policy design 基于经验的可持续气候政策设计动态方法
IF 27.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01715-5
Katrin Schmelz, Samuel Bowles
Conventional approaches to policy design often neglect the plasticity of citizens’ beliefs and values upon which policy effectiveness and political sustainability depend. A consequence, by way of illustration, is that environmental policies may crowd out pre-existing green values. Our representative survey of 3,306 Germans finds that enforced restrictions to promote carbon-neutral lifestyles would trigger strong negative responses because they ‘restrict freedom’. This is true even among those who would adopt green lifestyles when voluntary, thus possibly undermining support for green political movements. These results combined with the long-term political consequences of the polarizing reactions to Covid mandates motivate a new approach to climate policy design. We set aside the conventional economic model assuming self-interested citizens, in which there could be no green values to crowd out. Instead, we propose a dynamic approach recognizing that (1) to succeed, essential policies including bans, carbon taxes and the promotion of new technologies must be both implementable and politically sustainable, entailing (2) a critical role for citizens’ green values, which (3) may be either diminished or cultivated, depending on policy design. Climate policies based on conventional economic models that assume that citizens are entirely self-interested may trigger negative responses, even among those who support green lifestyles. A more dynamic approach is proposed, accounting for the importance of green values that may be undermined or enhanced by policy.
传统的政策设计方法往往忽视了政策有效性和政治可持续性所依赖的公民信仰和价值观的可塑性。举例来说,其后果是环境政策可能会排挤原有的绿色价值观。我们对3306名德国人的代表性调查发现,推行碳中和生活方式的强制限制会引发强烈的负面反应,因为这“限制了自由”。即使是那些自愿采取绿色生活方式的人也是如此,因此可能会削弱对绿色政治运动的支持。这些结果加上对Covid任务的两极分化反应的长期政治后果,促使人们采取新的气候政策设计方法。我们把传统的经济模型放在一边,假设公民是自利的,在这种模型中,不可能有绿色价值观被排挤出去。相反,我们提出了一种动态的方法,认识到:(1)要取得成功,包括禁令、碳税和新技术推广在内的基本政策必须既可实施又在政治上可持续,这就要求(2)公民的绿色价值观发挥关键作用,(3)根据政策设计,公民的绿色价值观可能会被削弱或培养。基于传统经济模型的气候政策假设公民完全是自利的,可能会引发负面反应,甚至在那些支持绿色生活方式的人当中也是如此。提出了一种更有活力的方法,考虑到绿色价值的重要性,这些价值可能因政策而受到损害或加强。
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引用次数: 0
Upcycling incompatible plastics 升级回收不相容塑料
IF 27.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01724-4
Mathieu L. Lepage, Emmanuel Gras
Mixed plastics are hard to upcycle because they are not all miscible with each other and deliver blends of poor quality when melted together. Now reactive additives help to make these components compatible when processed at 180 °C.
混合塑料很难升级回收,因为它们彼此不能混溶,在熔化时产生质量很差的混合物。现在,反应性添加剂有助于使这些成分在180°C下加工时兼容。
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引用次数: 0
Topological universal dynamic compatibilization enhances recycling of mixed plastics 拓扑通用动态增容提高了混合塑料的回收利用
IF 27.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01688-5
Yunpeng Gao, Xavier Westworth, Ethan C. Quinn, Jiyun Nam, Eugene Y.-X. Chen
Mechanical recycling of postconsumer plastics, especially incompatible mixed plastics, is often a downcycling process, resulting in brittle materials. Here we introduce a multi-arm universal dynamic crosslinker (UDC) platform to enable mechanical upcycling of incompatible mixed plastics. The topological UDC platform is based on readily accessible diazomalonate carbene precursors joined by dynamic siloxane linkages. It creates in situ star-like multiblock copolymer compatibilizing architectures from mixed plastics, irrespective of polymer types, and is compatible with reactive extrusion re/processing. Such architectures are credited for not only drastically enhancing creep resistance by two to four orders of magnitude but also improving the extensibility of polymer blends by up to 100-fold. By adjusting the topological UDC architecture and loading, broad property tunability between thermoset- and thermoplastic-like materials is achieved from mechanical upcycling of mixed apolar/polar plastics. This work provides a viable approach to improve the circularity of plastics. Mechanical recycling of incompatible mixed plastics is challenging, as it often downcycles plastics into brittle materials. Here the authors develop a multi-arm topological universal dynamic crosslinker platform to enable mechanical upcycling of incompatible mixed plastics.
机械回收消费后的塑料,特别是不相容的混合塑料,往往是一个降级循环过程,导致脆性材料。在这里,我们介绍了一个多臂通用动态交联剂(UDC)平台,使机械升级回收不相容的混合塑料。拓扑UDC平台是基于容易获得的重氮丙酸碳前体,由动态硅氧烷键连接。无论聚合物类型如何,它都可以从混合塑料中创建原位星形多嵌段共聚物相容结构,并且与反应挤出再加工兼容。这种结构不仅大大提高了抗蠕变能力2到4个数量级,而且还将聚合物共混物的延展性提高了100倍。通过调整拓扑UDC结构和负载,热固性和热塑性材料之间的广泛性能可调性通过混合极性/极性塑料的机械升级循环实现。这项工作为提高塑料的循环性提供了一种可行的方法。机械回收不相容的混合塑料具有挑战性,因为它经常将塑料降级为脆性材料。在这里,作者开发了一个多臂拓扑通用动态交联平台,以实现不相容混合塑料的机械升级。
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引用次数: 0
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Nature Sustainability
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