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Parameter estimation and identifiability analysis of stability and tipping points in potentially bistable ecosystems 潜在双稳态生态系统稳定性和临界点的参数估计和可辨识性分析
IF 4.9 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107214
Dasuni Amanda Salpadoru, Matthew P. Adams, Kate Helmstedt, David J. Warne
Ecological regime shifts are potentially a common property of ecosystems, describing transitions between alternative stable states that can represent healthy or unhealthy conditions under the same environmental drivers. Once a tipping point, defined as a critical threshold separating alternative stable states, is crossed, the system may degrade, and recovery can be difficult, making early detection essential for effective ecosystem management. Predicting these tipping points requires models that exhibit bistability, representing systems that can exist in two alternative stable states under identical environmental conditions. A key question is whether standard ecological monitoring data can be used to identify bistability and accurately estimate tipping points. Using the Carpenter model of lake eutrophication, which exhibits bistability between clear and polluted water states, we generate synthetic data under known stability regimes. Profile likelihood analysis is then applied to assess parameter identifiability and detect system stability and tipping points. Our results show that standard monitoring data do not always provide sufficient information to distinguish bistable from stable regimes. Importantly, for bistable systems, observations collected close to the tipping point improve parameter and stability identifiability, although this improvement remains strongly dependent on the observation noise level and sampling frequency
生态制度变迁可能是生态系统的共同属性,它描述了在相同环境驱动因素下代表健康或不健康状况的不同稳定状态之间的转变。一旦越过临界点(定义为分离可选稳定状态的关键阈值),系统可能会退化,恢复可能会很困难,因此早期检测对于有效的生态系统管理至关重要。预测这些引爆点需要表现出双稳定性的模型,即在相同的环境条件下,系统可以存在于两种可选的稳定状态。一个关键的问题是,标准的生态监测数据是否可以用来识别双稳定性和准确估计临界点。使用卡彭特湖泊富营养化模型,它在清澈和污染的水状态之间表现出双稳定性,我们在已知的稳定性制度下生成合成数据。然后应用轮廓似然分析来评估参数可识别性,并检测系统稳定性和临界点。我们的研究结果表明,标准监测数据并不总是提供足够的信息来区分双稳态和稳定状态。重要的是,对于双稳态系统,在临界点附近收集的观测值提高了参数和稳定性的可识别性,尽管这种改进仍然强烈依赖于观测噪声水平和采样频率
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引用次数: 0
Partitioning streamflow simulation uncertainty among precipitation forcing, physical process representation, and hydraulic parameters using WRF/WRF-Hydro model 利用WRF/WRF- hydro模型划分降水强迫、物理过程表征和水力参数之间的径流模拟不确定性
IF 4.9 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107220
Yinchi Zhang, Yuandong Min, Wanling Xu, Xiangyong Lei, Jiewen You, Yi Wang, Xiaobo Hao, Jianhui Wei, Ying Chen, Lu Gao, Harald Kunstmann
As hydrological models become more complex, the effects of alternative physical process representations remain insufficiently examined. Following the precipitation–land surface–soil pathway of error propagation, this study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Hydrological extension (WRF/WRF-Hydro) to evaluate precipitation forcing, physical process configurations, and hydraulic parameters in the Minjiang River Basin. Factorial decomposition of eight deterministic simulations shows that the contrast between default and adjusted scheme configurations accounts for 16.49%–21.59% of their variance across four stations. Process diagnostics identify surface exchange and runoff–groundwater adjustments as key to improving streamflow simulation through reduced evapotranspiration and enhanced runoff generation. The precipitation–physical scheme interaction further reveals that the streamflow response to these adjustments depends on forcing choice. These findings highlight the value of evaluating physical process representation alongside forcing selection and parameter calibration, providing a framework for diagnosing configuration effects and guiding hydrological model development across diverse catchments.
随着水文模型变得越来越复杂,替代物理过程表征的影响仍然没有得到充分的检验。基于降水-陆地-地表-土壤的误差传播路径,采用带水文扩展的气象研究与预报模型(WRF/WRF- hydro)对岷江流域的降水强迫、物理过程配置和水力参数进行了评价。8个确定性模拟的析因分解表明,默认方案配置与调整方案配置之间的差异占4个站点差异的16.49% ~ 21.59%。过程诊断确定地表交换和径流-地下水调节是通过减少蒸散和增强径流生成来改善流模拟的关键。降水-物理方案的相互作用进一步揭示了径流对这些调整的响应取决于强迫选择。这些发现突出了评估物理过程表征以及强迫选择和参数校准的价值,为诊断配置效应和指导不同流域的水文模型开发提供了框架。
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引用次数: 0
AI-assisted multi-objective calibration tool for the wflow_sbm hydrological model: Applications in the Nile Basin wflow_sbm水文模型的人工智能辅助多目标校准工具:在尼罗河流域的应用
IF 4.9 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107216
Addis A. Alaminie, Jude Dzevela Kong, Mohammed Basheer
Distributed hydrological models are used in environmental and water resources management. However, their calibration is challenging due to uncertainty in behavioural parameters and the need to consider multiple performance metrics. A generalized metaheuristic tool can help overcome these challenges for hydrological models such as wflow_sbm and environmental simulators. We present Optienv, an open-source, simulator-agnostic, AI-assisted Python framework that couples external simulators with multi-objective evolutionary algorithms through a modular, configuration-driven architecture supporting parallel processing and post-calibration interpretation. The framework is demonstrated with wflow_sbm using four case studies from Nile Basin headwater systems: Gilgel Abay, Tana, Blue Nile, and Tekeze-Atbara. Results show that Optienv identified hydrologically interpretable Pareto solutions and reproduced dominant seasonal hydrograph structures with physically coherent spatial water-balance behaviour. Explainable AI analysis identified land-use-specific storage controls as dominant drivers of calibration response. These findings establish Optienv as a calibration tool for wflow_sbm and a transferable framework for other environmental simulators.
分布式水文模型用于环境和水资源管理。然而,由于行为参数的不确定性和需要考虑多种性能指标,它们的校准具有挑战性。广义的元启发式工具可以帮助克服水文模型(如wflow_sbm)和环境模拟器的这些挑战。我们提出了Optienv,这是一个开源的、模拟器无关的、人工智能辅助的Python框架,它通过模块化的、配置驱动的架构将外部模拟器与多目标进化算法耦合在一起,支持并行处理和后校准解释。该框架在wflow_sbm中进行了演示,并使用了来自尼罗河流域水源系统的四个案例研究:Gilgel Abay、Tana、Blue Nile和Tekeze-Atbara。结果表明,Optienv识别了水文上可解释的帕累托解,并再现了具有物理上连贯的空间水平衡行为的主要季节性水文结构。可解释的人工智能分析确定,特定土地用途的存储控制是校准响应的主要驱动因素。这些发现确立了Optienv作为wflow_sbm的校准工具和其他环境模拟器的可转移框架。
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引用次数: 0
Classification-Driven Selective Depression Filling for Hydrological DEM Conditioning in Karst Terrains 喀斯特地形水文DEM调节的分类驱动选择洼地填充
IF 4.9 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107217
Emre ELBASI
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引用次数: 0
Toward Near-Real-Time Flood-Risk Mapping with Crowdsourced Data: A Bayesian Neural Network Framework for Uncertainty-Guided Verification 基于众包数据的近实时洪水风险映射:不确定性导向验证的贝叶斯神经网络框架
IF 4.9 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107206
Mengjue Zhu,Barnali Dixon,Subhrajit Guhathakurta
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引用次数: 0
Regional vs local LSTM models for short-term streamflow forecasting under operational constraints 区域与本地LSTM模型在操作约束下的短期流量预测
IF 4.6 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106897
Jorge Saavedra-Garrido , Jorge Arevalo , Luis De La Fuente , Aldo Tapia , Christopher Paredes-Arroyo , Ana Maria Cordova , Daira Velandia , Pablo Álvarez , Héctor Reyes-Serrano , Rodrigo Salas
Reliable short-term streamflow forecasting remains a key challenge due to data latency, uncertainty, and other real-world constraints. This study presents a regional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to predict daily mean and maximum streamflow across 340 points in Chile over a five-day horizon, explicitly accounting for operational limitations such as unavailable recent streamflow and delayed input data. Compared to locally trained models, the regional model demonstrates superior performance in temporal correlation and variance representation, with Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) ≥ 0.6 at 156 points. Crucially, high-flow event prediction improves significantly: bias in the Fractional High-flow Volume (FHV) is reduced by ∼50% at the 90th percentile and ∼25% at the 99th percentile, demonstrating strong operational robustness with minimal degradation over the forecast horizon. These findings highlight the potential of regional deep learning models to offer scalable and resilient performance across diverse hydrological settings, supporting flood preparedness and water management.
由于数据延迟、不确定性和其他现实世界的限制,可靠的短期流量预测仍然是一个关键挑战。本研究提出了一种区域长短期记忆(LSTM)模型,用于预测智利340个点五天内的日平均和最大流量,明确考虑了操作限制,如不可用的近期流量和延迟输入数据。与局部训练模型相比,区域模型在时间相关性和方差表示方面表现优异,156点的KGE≥0.6。至关重要的是,高流量事件预测得到了显著改善:分数高流量体积(FHV)的偏差在第90百分位数上减少了50%,在第99百分位数上减少了25%,显示出强大的操作鲁棒性,在预测范围内的退化最小。这些发现突出了区域深度学习模型在不同水文环境下提供可扩展和弹性性能的潜力,支持洪水准备和水管理。
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引用次数: 0
MAformer: A multivariate prediction framework with adaptive multi-scale decomposition and phase correction for water quality in aquaculture environments MAformer:具有自适应多尺度分解和相位校正的水产养殖环境水质多元预测框架
IF 4.6 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106905
Haoran Xing, Ying Li, Dashe Li, Huanhai Yang
Accurate prediction of dissolved oxygen (DO) is crucial for intelligent decision-making in aquaculture. However, achieving this goal is challenging due to nonstationarity, multi-period aliasing, and local phase shifts inherent in DO series. We propose the Multi-scale Adaptive transformer (MAformer) for water quality prediction. First, the hierarchical adaptive smoothing decomposer stabilizes long-term patterns while preserving short-term details. Second, a multi-period phase-aligned attention module achieves cross-period synchronization. Third, the phase-shift correction attention module enhances robustness to short-term disturbances. Experiments on six marine ranching datasets from diverse geographical and climatic regions demonstrate that MAformer significantly outperforms seven state-of-the-art baseline models. For instance, it achieves an average reduction of 9.59% in MAE and 7.96% in RMSE, alongside improvements of 8.39% in R2 and 6.25% in KGE. These results confirm MAformer’s superior capability as a reliable and generalizable tool for intelligent aquaculture management.
溶解氧(DO)的准确预测对水产养殖的智能决策至关重要。然而,由于DO序列固有的非平稳性、多周期混叠和局部相移,实现这一目标是具有挑战性的。提出了一种用于水质预测的多尺度自适应变压器(MAformer)。首先,分层自适应平滑分解器在保留短期细节的同时稳定长期模式。其次,采用多周期相位对准注意力模块实现跨周期同步。第三,相移校正注意模块增强了对短期扰动的鲁棒性。对来自不同地理和气候区域的6个海洋牧场数据集进行的实验表明,MAformer显著优于7个最先进的基线模型。例如,MAE平均降低9.59%,RMSE平均降低7.96%,R2平均提高8.39%,KGE平均提高6.25%。这些结果证实了MAformer作为智能水产养殖管理的可靠和通用工具的优越能力。
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引用次数: 0
A python framework for differentiable hydrological modeling and research workflow automation 可微分水文建模和研究工作流自动化的Python框架
IF 4.6 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106895
Wenyu Ouyang , Shuolong Xu , Yikai Chai , Laihong Zhuang , Zhihong Liu , Lei Ye , Xinzhuo Wu , Yong Peng , Chi Zhang
This study introduces a Python-based framework for constructing differentiable hydrological models with a modular design to streamline research workflows. The framework integrates five key modules: hydrodataset and hydrodatasource for data preprocessing, hydromodel and torchhydro for traditional and differentiable modeling, and HydroDHM for orchestrating integrated workflows. The data modules automate preparation of diverse datasets, including open-access and proprietary resources. Hydromodel supports process-based model calibration and evaluation, while torchhydro enables neural network integration for differentiable models. HydroDHM coordinates these components through a unified interface for configuring and executing end-to-end modeling pipelines. Case studies in CAMELS basins demonstrate that differentiable models achieve comparable streamflow simulation performance to traditional approaches. By decoupling data handling from model development and providing uv-installable (and pip-compatible) modules, the framework ensures reproducibility, scalability, and adaptability across diverse hydrological contexts.
本研究介绍了一个基于python的框架,用于构建具有模块化设计的可微分水文模型,以简化研究工作流程。该框架集成了五个关键模块:用于数据预处理的hydrodataset和hydrodatasource,用于传统和可微分建模的hydromodel和torchhydro,以及用于编排集成工作流的HydroDHM。数据模块自动准备各种数据集,包括开放访问和专有资源。Hydromodel支持基于过程的模型校准和评估,而torchhydro支持可微分模型的神经网络集成。HydroDHM通过一个统一的接口来协调这些组件,用于配置和执行端到端建模管道。骆驼盆地的案例研究表明,可微分模型与传统方法相比具有相当的流量模拟性能。通过将数据处理与模型开发分离,并提供uv安装(和pip兼容)模块,该框架确保了在不同水文环境下的再现性、可扩展性和适应性。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling hydrologic response to wildfires in the Pacific Northwest with a modified calibration technique 用改进的校准技术模拟太平洋西北地区野火的水文响应
IF 4.6 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106896
Hyunwoo Kang , Cameron E. Naficy , Kevin D. Bladon
The 2020 Labor Day fires in the Western Cascades of Oregon, USA, burned extensive forested areas, which altered hydrologic processes, water quality, aquatic ecosystems, and drinking water resources. Understanding wildfire severity effects on hydrologic processes is crucial for improved water resource management. Our study assessed wildfire severity impacts on hydrology using a modified calibration method for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Calibration incorporated evapotranspiration and leaf area index to represent vegetation loss and hydrologic impacts. We also integrated a wildfire module to simulate fire effects on soil and vegetation parameters. This improved modeling approach effectively captured post-fire hydrologic behavior, especially increased high streamflows and reduced evapotranspiration, with greater changes linked to higher burn severity. These findings emphasize the importance of considering fire severity in hydrologic modeling, aiding proactive management and mitigation strategies to protect water supply and enhance ecosystem resilience in wildfire-prone regions.
2020年劳动节,美国俄勒冈州西部瀑布发生火灾,烧毁了大片森林地区,改变了水文过程、水质、水生生态系统和饮用水资源。了解野火严重程度对水文过程的影响对于改善水资源管理至关重要。本研究使用改良的土壤和水评估工具(SWAT)模型校准方法评估了野火严重程度对水文的影响。校正采用蒸散和叶面积指数来表示植被损失和水文影响。我们还集成了一个野火模块来模拟火灾对土壤和植被参数的影响。这种改进的建模方法有效地捕获了火灾后的水文行为,特别是增加的高流量和减少的蒸散量,这些变化与更高的烧伤严重程度有关。这些发现强调了在水文建模中考虑火灾严重程度的重要性,有助于主动管理和缓解战略,以保护供水,增强野火易发地区的生态系统恢复能力。
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引用次数: 0
A stepwise back-correction function for precipitation representation in hydrologic models 水文模型降水表示的逐步反校正函数
IF 4.6 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106908
Dany A. Hernandez , Jorge A. Guzman , Sandra R. Villamizar , Maria L. Chu , Camila Ribeiro , Carlos R. de Mello
This study addresses how spatial and temporal uncertainties in precipitation limit calibration of hydrological models. Adjusting model parameters alone cannot compensate for poorly represented precipitation at the model's lower resolution. A reanalysis framework that integrates traditional calibration with a stepwise precipitation back correction approach was introduced. Using a composite exponential error function, the method derives precipitation correction factors from mismatches between observed and simulated streamflow. The approach was tested with three hydrological models—SWAT, MIKE-SHE, and MHD—across watersheds in the United States and Brazil. The workflow involved an initial standard calibration, followed by iterative precipitation correction without altering model parameters, and a final recalibration incorporating the corrected precipitation. Results showed 10–18% improvements in KGE while maintaining PBIAS below 10% at most stations. The study highlights the value of constraining water balance to avoid unrealistic corrections and demonstrates how addressing precipitation uncertainties enhances model performance across diverse hydrological settings.
本研究解决了降水的时空不确定性如何限制水文模型的校准。仅调整模式参数不能补偿模式分辨率较低时表现不佳的降水。介绍了一种将传统定标与逐级降水反演方法相结合的再分析框架。该方法利用复合指数误差函数,从实测与模拟流量的不匹配中导出降水校正因子。该方法在美国和巴西的流域用swat、MIKE-SHE和mhd三种水文模型进行了测试。工作流程包括最初的标准校准,随后是不改变模型参数的迭代降水校正,以及结合校正后的降水的最终重新校准。结果显示,大多数站点的KGE改善了10-18%,而PBIAS保持在10%以下。该研究强调了限制水平衡以避免不切实际的修正的价值,并展示了解决降水不确定性如何提高模型在不同水文设置中的性能。
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引用次数: 0
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Environmental Modelling & Software
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