Pub Date : 2026-10-27DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103252
Theo Stanley, Sophus O.S.E. zu Ermgassen, Adrienne H.J. Buller, Katie Kedward, Yadvinder Malhi, Constance L. McDermott, Nathalie Seddon, Forrest Fleischman, Justin Adams, Mark Hirons
Natural capital markets (NCMs) are widely heralded as an important solution to the biodiversity crisis. Extensive effort, energy, time, and resources have been invested into making them function. NCMs are intended to catalyse financial flows from the private sector to conservation and nature recovery projects, helping to close the ‘nature finance gap’. Whilst this rhetoric is appealing, there is growing evidence that NCMs (principally voluntary biodiversity and carbon offset markets) are unlikely to ever protect or recover nature at the necessary scale and speed required, nor deliver wide-ranging socio-ecological benefits to a diversity of communities, organisms, and ecosystems. Drawing on interdisciplinary evidence, we outline five established flaws associated with NCMs: persistent barriers to scaling, a compensatory rather than restorative character, the prioritisation of financial returns over socio-ecological outcomes, justice and equity concerns, and measurement challenges. Collectively, they lead us to offer a central claim: NCMs have absorbed a disproportionate amount of political and research attention relative to their limited impact. We call for reimagining nature finance, based on a central tenet: raising funds should be a means to an end, not an end in itself. This reimagined approach requires greater attention to how the structures and requirements of finance shape which regions, ecological outcomes, and forms of governance become visible, valuable, and ultimately financeable. A reimagined approach demands redirecting research and policy attention towards what really matters: finding effective and equitable ways to finance conservation and nature recovery projects which deliver beneficial socio-ecological outcomes.
{"title":"Reimagining nature finance","authors":"Theo Stanley, Sophus O.S.E. zu Ermgassen, Adrienne H.J. Buller, Katie Kedward, Yadvinder Malhi, Constance L. McDermott, Nathalie Seddon, Forrest Fleischman, Justin Adams, Mark Hirons","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103252","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103252","url":null,"abstract":"Natural capital markets (NCMs) are widely heralded as an important solution to the biodiversity crisis. Extensive effort, energy, time, and resources have been invested into making them function. NCMs are intended to catalyse financial flows from the private sector to conservation and nature recovery projects, helping to close the ‘nature finance gap’. Whilst this rhetoric is appealing, there is growing evidence that NCMs (principally voluntary biodiversity and carbon offset markets) are unlikely to ever protect or recover nature at the necessary scale and speed required, nor deliver wide-ranging socio-ecological benefits to a diversity of communities, organisms, and ecosystems. Drawing on interdisciplinary evidence, we outline five established flaws associated with NCMs: persistent barriers to scaling, a compensatory rather than restorative character, the prioritisation of financial returns over socio-ecological outcomes, justice and equity concerns, and measurement challenges. Collectively, they lead us to offer a central claim: NCMs have absorbed a disproportionate amount of political and research attention relative to their limited impact. We call for reimagining nature finance, based on a central tenet: raising funds should be a means to an end, not an end in itself. <ce:italic>This reimagined approach requires greater attention to how the structures and requirements of finance shape which regions, ecological outcomes, and forms of governance become visible, valuable, and ultimately financeable.</ce:italic> A reimagined approach demands redirecting research and policy attention towards what really matters: finding effective and equitable ways to finance conservation and nature recovery projects which deliver beneficial socio-ecological outcomes.","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.47,"publicationDate":"2026-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149292529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-01-23DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103116
Wenbo Zhang , Xiaoliang Hu , Hongbo Li , Xiaolin Zhang , Changchun Huang , Zhaoyuan Yu , Shaobin Li , Zengkai Zhang , Libang Ma , Linwang Yuan
To address multiple challenges including food security, resource scarcity, and environmental degradation, China is prioritizing non-grain governance (NGG) as a key strategy, yet lacks an actionable governance framework. This paper proposes an integrated approach combining non-grain level (NGL) control (Measure 1) with crop spatial reallocation (Measure 2), thereby establishing a three-tier governance framework for non-grain conversion (NGC) at the “national-agricultural region-county levels”. Based on China’s 2020 grain production capacity, we project pathways to meet grain demand under 2030 population scenarios and evaluate the impacts of three policy scenarios on sustainable agricultural development. Simulation results for 2020–2030 show that, compared to Scenario 1 (no measure 1 & no measure 2 → a 25.56% increase in imports), Scenario 2 (no measure 1 & with measure 2 → partial imports) could fulfill up to 84% of food demand through optimized crop spatial allocation. This import reduction would save approximately 16.43% of global arable land use, 16.59% of global water consumption, 16.36% of global energy use, and 15.80% of global carbon emissions associated with trade. Scenario 3 (with measure 1 & with measure 2 → self-sufficiency) could achieve full grain self-sufficiency by constraining the non-grain level to ≤ 28% through integrated control and spatial optimization, thereby avoiding additional global resource consumption. However, this scenario would increase domestic water and energy stress and constrain farmers’ net income. For China’s nine major agricultural regions and their 2,668 counties, the management focus should shift from merely monitoring the surface-level rate of farmland conversion to non-grain uses, to a more critical assessment of its tangible impacts on grain production and environmental pollution. Accordingly, stringent protection measures are required, particularly for counties within core production areas such as the Northeast China Plain and the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. The proposed three-tier governance system offers a scalable framework for addressing the intertwined challenges of food security, resource conservation, and global ecological responsibilities.
{"title":"Mapping China’s non-grain governance: pathways to global agricultural sustainability","authors":"Wenbo Zhang , Xiaoliang Hu , Hongbo Li , Xiaolin Zhang , Changchun Huang , Zhaoyuan Yu , Shaobin Li , Zengkai Zhang , Libang Ma , Linwang Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103116","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103116","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To address multiple challenges including food security, resource scarcity, and environmental degradation, China is prioritizing non-grain governance (NGG) as a key strategy, yet lacks an actionable governance framework. This paper proposes an integrated approach combining non-grain level (NGL) control (Measure 1) with crop spatial reallocation (Measure 2), thereby establishing a three-tier governance framework for non-grain conversion (NGC) at the “national-agricultural region-county levels”. Based on China’s 2020 grain production capacity, we project pathways to meet grain demand under 2030 population scenarios and evaluate the impacts of three policy scenarios on sustainable agricultural development. Simulation results for 2020–2030 show that, compared to Scenario 1 (no measure 1 & no measure 2 → a 25.56% increase in imports), Scenario 2 (no measure 1 & with measure 2 → partial imports) could fulfill up to 84% of food demand through optimized crop spatial allocation. This import reduction would save approximately 16.43% of global arable land use, 16.59% of global water consumption, 16.36% of global energy use, and 15.80% of global carbon emissions associated with trade. Scenario 3 (with measure 1 & with measure 2 → self-sufficiency) could achieve full grain self-sufficiency by constraining the non-grain level to ≤ 28% through integrated control and spatial optimization, thereby avoiding additional global resource consumption. However, this scenario would increase domestic water and energy stress and constrain farmers’ net income. For China’s nine major agricultural regions and their 2,668 counties, the management focus should shift from merely monitoring the surface-level rate of farmland conversion to non-grain uses, to a more critical assessment of its tangible impacts on grain production and environmental pollution. Accordingly, stringent protection measures are required, particularly for counties within core production areas such as the Northeast China Plain and the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. The proposed three-tier governance system offers a scalable framework for addressing the intertwined challenges of food security, resource conservation, and global ecological responsibilities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"97 ","pages":"Article 103116"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146033377","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-01-25DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103115
Edovia Dufatanye Umwali , Alain Isabwe , Naomie M. Kayitesi , Xi Chen
Ecosystem services are fundamental to sustaining life and livelihoods, yet they face increasing threats, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study investigates the temporal dynamics of key ecosystem services, carbon storage, habitat quality, and water yield, across five East African countries over the past two decades, while also exploring their drivers. Spatially explicit models were developed using the integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST), and random forest models (70% training, 30% testing; 500 trees) to identify ecosystem service responses to a variety of drivers, including climate, proximity, soil, Land Use Land Cover Change (LUCC), socioeconomic, and topographic factors. Results revealed distinct patterns in ecosystem service dynamics: (1) Carbon storage remained relatively stable, with 90.9% of the area maintaining consistent levels in 2000–2010, slightly increasing to 91.6% in 2010–2020; (2) Habitat quality showed more variability, but trended positively, with improvements from 2000 to 2010, and over 95% of the area remaining stable in the following decade. (3) In contrast, water yield exhibited the most significant fluctuations, with 52.6% of the area experienced a decline and 43.7% an increase in 2000–2010, followed by a dramatic 89.1% increase in 2010–2020. (4) The random forest models produced robust results (R2 = 0.75–––0.96) across all three periods (2000, 2010, and 2020) for each ecosystem service. (5) Climate variables, particularly precipitation and temperature, emerged as the strongest drivers of water yield, while slope and socioeconomic factors primarily influenced carbon storage. (6) Socioeconomic factors were also most influential in shaping habitat quality. These findings offer critical insights for environmental management and policy, providing a basis for sustainable development strategies as the region works toward achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.
{"title":"Bi-decadal changes in selected ecosystem services and their integrated drivers in East Africa","authors":"Edovia Dufatanye Umwali , Alain Isabwe , Naomie M. Kayitesi , Xi Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103115","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103115","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ecosystem services are fundamental to sustaining life and livelihoods, yet they face increasing threats, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study investigates the temporal dynamics of key ecosystem services, carbon storage, habitat quality, and water yield, across five East African countries over the past two decades, while also exploring their drivers. Spatially explicit models were developed using the integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST), and random forest models (70% training, 30% testing; 500 trees) to identify ecosystem service responses to a variety of drivers, including climate, proximity, soil, Land Use Land Cover Change (LUCC), socioeconomic, and topographic factors. Results revealed distinct patterns in ecosystem service dynamics: (1) Carbon storage remained relatively stable, with 90.9% of the area maintaining consistent levels in 2000–2010, slightly increasing to 91.6% in 2010–2020; (2) Habitat quality showed more variability, but trended positively, with improvements from 2000 to 2010, and over 95% of the area remaining stable in the following decade. (3) In contrast, water yield exhibited the most significant fluctuations, with 52.6% of the area experienced a decline and 43.7% an increase in 2000–2010, followed by a dramatic 89.1% increase in 2010–2020. (4) The random forest models produced robust results (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.75–––0.96) across all three periods (2000, 2010, and 2020) for each ecosystem service. (5) Climate variables, particularly precipitation and temperature, emerged as the strongest drivers of water yield, while slope and socioeconomic factors primarily influenced carbon storage. (6) Socioeconomic factors were also most influential in shaping habitat quality. These findings offer critical insights for environmental management and policy, providing a basis for sustainable development strategies as the region works toward achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"97 ","pages":"Article 103115"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146048429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-01-28DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103117
Xiaoqing Xu , Feiran Hu , Ning Zou , Chumeng Yu , Yue Cao , Xueyao Sun , Zuyao Li , Jialai Meng , Jian Kang
The coupling of visual and auditory tranquility on a national scale has garnered attention worldwide. However, research on the spatial distributions in visual and audio tranquility across China and the implications of these differences for the perceptions and management of overall tranquility in scarce. Therefore, this study examined the spatial distribution of visual and auditory tranquility across China and its variations, spatial differences between visual and auditory tranquility, and the relationship between tranquility patterns and geographic zoning. This study used audio-visual geographic information system modeling and public consultations employing multi-criteria decision-making techniques to develop a comprehensive map of visual and auditory tranquility. The results revealed a correlation between tranquility, urban development, and environmental indicators. Additionally, this research established a framework to mapping tranquility, supplementing existing knowledge, and set baseline standards for future environment conservation decision making of tranquil protected lands and regional governance systems in China. The findings highlight priority and potential development areas for tranquility, providing guidance for future territorial spatial planning and regional. The research ideas, methods, and techniques are also applicable to the study of tranquil areas at the global scale.
{"title":"Mapping priority and potential tranquility areas in China using hybrid audio-visual GIS modeling for environment decision making","authors":"Xiaoqing Xu , Feiran Hu , Ning Zou , Chumeng Yu , Yue Cao , Xueyao Sun , Zuyao Li , Jialai Meng , Jian Kang","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103117","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103117","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The coupling of visual and auditory tranquility on a national scale has garnered attention worldwide. However, research on the spatial distributions in visual and audio tranquility across China and the implications of these differences for the perceptions and management of overall tranquility in scarce. Therefore, this study examined the spatial distribution of visual and auditory tranquility across China and its variations, spatial differences between visual and auditory tranquility, and the relationship between tranquility patterns and geographic zoning. This study used audio-visual geographic information system modeling and public consultations employing multi-criteria decision-making techniques to develop a comprehensive map of visual and auditory tranquility. The results revealed a correlation between tranquility, urban development, and environmental indicators. Additionally, this research established a framework to mapping tranquility, supplementing existing knowledge, and set baseline standards for future environment conservation decision making of tranquil protected lands and regional governance systems in China. The findings highlight priority and potential development areas for tranquility, providing guidance for future territorial spatial planning and regional. The research ideas, methods, and techniques are also applicable to the study of tranquil areas at the global scale.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"97 ","pages":"Article 103117"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146075521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Heat waves and droughts are each highly damaging to people’s incomes, but little is known of the joint impact on household welfare when these events occur simultaneously. We combine European household level survey data from 2004 to 2022 with high resolution temperature and drought data in a fixed effects econometric regression to investigate the change in household income and risk of poverty due to heat waves, droughts, and compound dry-and-hot extremes. We find that the average reduction in annual household income was 0.8 percentage points larger when heat waves coincided with a drought month, compared to when heat waves occurred alone. The compound climate impact was stronger for poorer households, with household in the poorest income quintile experiencing a reduction in average household income from the combined impacts of heatwave and drought of 2.7 percentage points larger than the households in the richest income quintile. We estimate that heat waves and droughts increased the at-risk-of-poverty (AROP) rate in Europe by 1.1 percentage points or an additional 5.6 million persons for 2004–2022 on average. Our projections indicate that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C by 2100 minimizes the negative impacts on income and limits the increase in income inequality and at-risk-of-poverty rates. Limiting warming also allows for more time to adapt to the adverse effects of heat waves and droughts. To reduce poverty by at least 15 million by 2030, the European Union has to scale up its protection of vulnerable populations through climate mitigation and adaptation.
{"title":"Compound dry-and-hot extremes exacerbate income inequality and poverty in Europe","authors":"Jessie Ruth Schleypen , Fahad Saeed , Anne Zimmer , Tilman Brück","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103106","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103106","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Heat waves and droughts are each highly damaging to people’s incomes, but little is known of the joint impact on household welfare when these events occur simultaneously. We combine European household level survey data from 2004 to 2022 with high resolution temperature and drought data in a fixed effects econometric regression to investigate the change in household income and risk of poverty due to heat waves, droughts, and compound dry-and-hot extremes. We find that the average reduction in annual household income was 0.8 percentage points larger when heat waves coincided with a drought month, compared to when heat waves occurred alone. The compound climate impact was stronger for poorer households, with household in the poorest income quintile experiencing a reduction in average household income from the combined impacts of heatwave and drought of 2.7 percentage points larger than the households in the richest income quintile. We estimate that heat waves and droughts increased the at-risk-of-poverty (AROP) rate in Europe by 1.1 percentage points or an additional 5.6 million persons for 2004–2022 on average. Our projections indicate that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C by 2100 minimizes the negative impacts on income and limits the increase in income inequality and at-risk-of-poverty rates. Limiting warming also allows for more time to adapt to the adverse effects of heat waves and droughts. To reduce poverty by at least 15 million by 2030, the European Union has to scale up its protection of vulnerable populations through climate mitigation and adaptation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"97 ","pages":"Article 103106"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146006632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Mongolian Plateau represents an integrated physical geography unit characterized by ecological gradient continuity and similarity. Under long-term divergent management regimes, the social-ecological systems (SES) of grasslands in China and Mongolia have demonstrated distinct evolutionary trajectories. Clarifying these evolutionary patterns holds significant importance for promoting innovative regional grassland management. This study employs segmented linear regression methods to identify the evolutionary processes of grassland SES in Mongolia, while conducting comparative research with the evolutionary patterns observed in Inner Mongolia, China. Key findings reveal that from 1921 to 2020, Mongolian grassland SES underwent four distinct phases: traditional nomadic pastoralism period, collectivized production period, post-transition pastoral period, and community-based grassland management period. A comparative analysis between Inner Mongolia and Mongolia reveals that, under different management frameworks, both regions have exhibited overall positive trends in their most recent stages of SES evolution. Dynamic changes in key indicators during recent stages further validate this improving trajectory of grassland SES. The process-tracing analysis reveals that the positive development in Inner Mongolia primarily stems from the implementation of ecological conservation policies, whereas Mongolia’s improvement is mainly attributable to natural ecosystem management that emphasizes community-based approaches. Although both management systems demonstrate unique advantages, they are facing increasingly uncertain environmental challenges, making cross-border grassland governance imperative. Future efforts should focus on exploring deeper institutional matching models and adaptive governance practices between both parties to establish an effective regional SES governance framework. This cross-border synergy will better address emerging environmental uncertainties while optimizing the social ecological sustainability of grasslands across the Mongolian plateau.
{"title":"Unity in diversity: The evolution of the grassland social-ecological systems in China and Mongolia","authors":"Haibin Dong , Xiangjuan Hou , Yongzhi Zhao , Qing Xu , Tariq Ali , Siqi Yang , Qing Zhang , Xiangyang Hou","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103113","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103113","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Mongolian Plateau represents an integrated physical geography unit characterized by ecological gradient continuity and similarity. Under long-term divergent management regimes, the social-ecological systems (SES) of grasslands in China and Mongolia have demonstrated distinct evolutionary trajectories. Clarifying these evolutionary patterns holds significant importance for promoting innovative regional grassland management. This study employs segmented linear regression methods to identify the evolutionary processes of grassland SES in Mongolia, while conducting comparative research with the evolutionary patterns observed in Inner Mongolia, China. Key findings reveal that from 1921 to 2020, Mongolian grassland SES underwent four distinct phases: traditional nomadic pastoralism period, collectivized production period, post-transition pastoral period, and community-based grassland management period. A comparative analysis between Inner Mongolia and Mongolia reveals that, under different management frameworks, both regions have exhibited overall positive trends in their most recent stages of SES evolution. Dynamic changes in key indicators during recent stages further validate this improving trajectory of grassland SES. The process-tracing analysis reveals that the positive development in Inner Mongolia primarily stems from the implementation of ecological conservation policies, whereas Mongolia’s improvement is mainly attributable to natural ecosystem management that emphasizes community-based approaches. Although both management systems demonstrate unique advantages, they are facing increasingly uncertain environmental challenges, making cross-border grassland governance imperative. Future efforts should focus on exploring deeper institutional matching models and adaptive governance practices between both parties to establish an effective regional SES governance framework. This cross-border synergy will better address emerging environmental uncertainties while optimizing the social ecological sustainability of grasslands across the Mongolian plateau.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103113"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145973095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-12-11DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103089
Ashwin Ravikumar , Sara Zhu
This paper offers the first empirical assessment of the relationship between deforestation and spending on social services centered in the Peruvian Amazon. We use a spatially explicit regression model to analyze the relationship between social spending and deforestation at the district level across the Peruvian Amazon. We find that districts with higher levels of spending on health care, education, and sanitation exhibit less deforestation on average, implying that unconditional funding for social services can serve as the basis for sound ecological policy. We then use further ethnographic, interview, and focus group data from the Amazonian districts of Echarate, Puerto Bermúdez, and Callería to shed light on how funding social services work to reduce deforestation. While Echarate and Puerto Bermúdez are similar in terms of ecology and population density, Echarate has a much higher budget due to natural gas levies. Respondents in Echarate indicated that a more robust social service net made deforestation and cash crop expansion less attractive. By contrast, in Puerto Bermúdez, many people aspired to an agrarian capitalist future with expanded cash crop plantations and hired labor as a means to build a better future for their families. Meanwhile, the case of Callería shows how conventional approaches to conservation have been fundamentally orthogonal to people’s basic needs. We conclude by encouraging political ecologists and scholars of convivial conservation approaches like Conservation Basic Income to critically support unconditional funding for basic services as part of a global just transition, aligned with the climate debt framework.
{"title":"Public spending on health care, education, and sanitation is linked to lower deforestation in the Peruvian Amazon: new empirical support for the climate debt framework","authors":"Ashwin Ravikumar , Sara Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103089","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103089","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper offers the first empirical assessment of the relationship between deforestation and spending on social services centered in the Peruvian Amazon. We use a spatially explicit regression model to analyze the relationship between social spending and deforestation at the district level across the Peruvian Amazon. We find that districts with higher levels of spending on health care, education, and sanitation exhibit less deforestation on average, implying that unconditional funding for social services can serve as the basis for sound ecological policy. We then use further ethnographic, interview, and focus group data from the Amazonian districts of Echarate, Puerto Bermúdez, and Callería to shed light on how funding social services work to reduce deforestation. While Echarate and Puerto Bermúdez are similar in terms of ecology and population density, Echarate has a much higher budget due to natural gas levies. Respondents in Echarate indicated that a more robust social service net made deforestation and cash crop expansion less attractive. By contrast, in Puerto Bermúdez, many people aspired to an agrarian capitalist future with expanded cash crop plantations and hired labor as a means to build a better future for their families. Meanwhile, the case of Callería shows how conventional approaches to conservation have been fundamentally orthogonal to people’s basic needs. We conclude by encouraging political ecologists and scholars of convivial conservation approaches like Conservation Basic Income to critically support unconditional funding for basic services as part of a global just transition, aligned with the climate debt framework.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103089"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145735495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-01-10DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103112
Muhammad Ramiz Murtaza , Atta Ullah , Quande Qin , Thin Thin Hlaing
Environmental sustainability can be largely determined by the interactions among technological transitions, finance structures, and security dynamics, particularly in India and Pakistan. Yet, the literature rarely examines these dimensions simultaneously within Social-Ecological Systems (SES) context. This study fills this gap by examining how clean energy adoption (CEA), financial inclusivity (FIN), and defense expenditure (DFE) affect load capacity factor (LCF)- a robust measure capturing the balance between ecological demand (ecological footprints) and supply (biocapacity). Focusing on India and Pakistan, we analyze annual data spanning from 1990 to 2022 and apply a country-specific autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach to elucidate their distinctive sustainability trajectories. Our findings reveal notable differences. In India, CEA and FIN significantly enhance long-term LCF. However, DFE and economic growth (GDP) markedly weaken it, while organized violence (OGV) and governance quality (GON) show no meaningful impacts. In Pakistan, CEA, FIN, and GON deliver positive long-run boosts to LCF, whereas OGV and GDP undermine it. DFE also harms LCF, though its impact is larger in the short-term. The causality analysis further indicates that LCF granger causes FIN in both countries. India has a unidirectional causality running from CEA to LCF and there is no causality between DFE and LCF. Pakistan shows LCF-based causality towards CEA, with a feedback link from DFE to LCF. By combining the SES framework with rigorous econometric techniques, this study delivers comprehensive insights into how energy transitions, financial access, and security priorities collectively drive environmental outcomes in two highly climate-vulnerable and geopolitically tense South Asian economies.
{"title":"Guns or Green? A social-ecological systems analysis of defense expenditure, clean energy, and financial inclusivity in India and Pakistan","authors":"Muhammad Ramiz Murtaza , Atta Ullah , Quande Qin , Thin Thin Hlaing","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103112","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103112","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Environmental sustainability can be largely determined by the interactions among technological transitions, finance structures, and security dynamics, particularly in India and Pakistan. Yet, the literature rarely examines these dimensions simultaneously within Social-Ecological Systems (SES) context. This study fills this gap by examining how clean energy adoption (CEA), financial inclusivity (FIN), and defense expenditure (DFE) affect load capacity factor (LCF)- a robust measure capturing the balance between ecological demand (ecological footprints) and supply (biocapacity). Focusing on India and Pakistan, we analyze annual data spanning from 1990 to 2022 and apply a country-specific autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach to elucidate their distinctive sustainability trajectories. Our findings reveal notable differences. In India, CEA and FIN significantly enhance long-term LCF. However, DFE and economic growth (GDP) markedly weaken it, while organized violence (OGV) and governance quality (GON) show no meaningful impacts. In Pakistan, CEA, FIN, and GON deliver positive long-run boosts to LCF, whereas OGV and GDP undermine it. DFE also harms LCF, though its impact is larger in the short-term. The causality analysis further indicates that LCF granger causes FIN in both countries. India has a unidirectional causality running from CEA to LCF and there is no causality between DFE and LCF. Pakistan shows LCF-based causality towards CEA, with a feedback link from DFE to LCF. By combining the SES framework with rigorous econometric techniques, this study delivers comprehensive insights into how energy transitions, financial access, and security priorities collectively drive environmental outcomes in two highly climate-vulnerable and geopolitically tense South Asian economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103112"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145921280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-12-08DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103088
Jing Wang , Bao-Zhong Wang , Fei Mo , Yinglong Chen , Mohammad Ashraf , Yang Wang , Jian-Ming Li , Hai-Xia Duan , Yajie Song , Levis Kavagi , Hong-Yan Tao , You-Cai Xiong
It is crucial to enhance climate resilience of global dryland maize to cope with future 50-year warming scenarios (2030–2079), including SSP2-4.5 (medium emission) and SSP5-8.5 (high emission). We first calibrated and validated the AquaCrop model using observational data of field production with plastic film mulching (water-saving) and without mulching (CK) across 2019 and 2020. Subsequently, we used the validated AquaCrop model to simulate and predict maize biomass and seed yield based on different sowing dates and mulching patterns, employing historical climate data (1995–2019) and projected data under future climate scenarios. The results indicated that, relative to historical period, biomass and seed yields would decline by 5.9 % and 16.5 % under CK, but increase by 22.2 % and 21.0 % under plastic film mulching over the next 50 years under global warming, respectively. The stability and sustainability index of biomass yield would decline in CK, yet significantly increase under mulching. Seed yield would decline from SSP2-4.5 to SSP5-8.5, while biomass yield would elevate significantly. Relative to historical period, under plastic film mulching, optimal planting date window (OPDW) for seed production would be averagely extended by 2.8 days under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, which is significantly shorter than the averagely extended OPDW for biomass production under future climate scenarios (7.6 days). Mulching strategy enables crops to better adapt to severe fluctuations of precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation than CK. Therefore, biomass-led, rather than seed-led, mulching production strategy promises future climate resilience and sustainability of global dryland maize, particularly under high emission scenario.
{"title":"Enhancing climate resilience of global dryland maize to cope with future 50-year climate warming","authors":"Jing Wang , Bao-Zhong Wang , Fei Mo , Yinglong Chen , Mohammad Ashraf , Yang Wang , Jian-Ming Li , Hai-Xia Duan , Yajie Song , Levis Kavagi , Hong-Yan Tao , You-Cai Xiong","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103088","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103088","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>It is crucial to enhance climate resilience of global dryland maize to cope with future 50-year warming scenarios (2030–2079), including SSP2-4.5 (medium emission) and SSP5-8.5 (high emission). We first calibrated and validated the AquaCrop model using observational data of field production with plastic film mulching (water-saving) and without mulching (CK) across 2019 and 2020. Subsequently, we used the validated AquaCrop model to simulate and predict maize biomass and seed yield based on different sowing dates and mulching patterns, employing historical climate data (1995–2019) and projected data under future climate scenarios. The results indicated that, relative to historical period, biomass and seed yields would decline by 5.9 % and 16.5 % under CK, but increase by 22.2 % and 21.0 % under plastic film mulching over the next 50 years under global warming, respectively. The stability and sustainability index of biomass yield would decline in CK, yet significantly increase under mulching. Seed yield would decline from SSP2-4.5 to SSP5-8.5, while biomass yield would elevate significantly. Relative to historical period, under plastic film mulching, optimal planting date window (OPDW) for seed production would be averagely extended by 2.8 days under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, which is significantly shorter than the averagely extended OPDW for biomass production under future climate scenarios (7.6 days). Mulching strategy enables crops to better adapt to severe fluctuations of precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation than CK. Therefore, biomass-led, rather than seed-led, mulching production strategy promises future climate resilience and sustainability of global dryland maize, particularly under high emission scenario.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103088"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145697411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-12-24DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103105
Pascal Tschumi, Irmi Seidl, Marco Pütz, Lena Gubler
Socioeconomic scenarios have become an important instrument for addressing present and potential future environmental challenges. Some of the most widely used socioeconomic scenarios are the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which were published in 2015 and have been extended to several geographical scales and sectors. Nonetheless, there are several needs for more useful and relevant SSPs. This article presents a novel procedure for developing national SSPs that addresses some of these needs, showing how it applies to Switzerland. The novelty of our procedure is the application of a composition-based scenario development approach (composing new scenarios from scratch) and to combine it with a derivation-based approach (deriving scenarios from existing ones by enriching them with, for example, national specificities) to develop national SSPs. Furthermore, the procedure fulfils three quality requirements for qualitative scenario development—interdisciplinarity, participation, and iterative quality controls—and meets three recommendations for more useful and relevant SSPs—developing SSP variants that are not covered by global SSPs, getting SSPs up to date, and enriching SSPs with perspectives from different societal groups to improve the inclusiveness of scenarios. We develop national SSPs for Switzerland (SSPs-CH) from scratch, incorporating these requirements and recommendations. Our procedure results in a new SSP variant (SSP0-CH: Frugal Switzerland), an altered SSP5 (SSP5-CH: Resource-Intensive Switzerland), and three SSP-CH scenarios that can easily be compared with global scenarios (SSP1, SSP3, and SSP4). No SSP-CH correlates with global SSP2. The process we developed uniquely combines different approaches and methods, and it proves to be viable for providing comprehensive, up to date scenarios.
{"title":"Advancing national Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs): A novel procedure applied to develop current Swiss SSPs","authors":"Pascal Tschumi, Irmi Seidl, Marco Pütz, Lena Gubler","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103105","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103105","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Socioeconomic scenarios have become an important instrument for addressing present and potential future environmental challenges. Some of the most widely used socioeconomic scenarios are the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which were published in 2015 and have been extended to several geographical scales and sectors. Nonetheless, there are several needs for more useful and relevant SSPs. This article presents a novel procedure for developing national SSPs that addresses some of these needs, showing how it applies to Switzerland. The novelty of our procedure is the application of a composition-based scenario development approach (composing new scenarios from scratch) and to combine it with a derivation-based approach (deriving scenarios from existing ones by enriching them with, for example, national specificities) to develop national SSPs. Furthermore, the procedure fulfils three quality requirements for qualitative scenario development—interdisciplinarity, participation, and iterative quality controls—and meets three recommendations for more useful and relevant SSPs—developing SSP variants that are not covered by global SSPs, getting SSPs up to date, and enriching SSPs with perspectives from different societal groups to improve the inclusiveness of scenarios. We develop national SSPs for Switzerland (SSPs-CH) from scratch, incorporating these requirements and recommendations. Our procedure results in a new SSP variant (SSP0-CH: Frugal Switzerland), an altered SSP5 (SSP5-CH: Resource-Intensive Switzerland), and three SSP-CH scenarios that can easily be compared with global scenarios (SSP1, SSP3, and SSP4). No SSP-CH correlates with global SSP2. The process we developed uniquely combines different approaches and methods, and it proves to be viable for providing comprehensive, up to date scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103105"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145823261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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