International Journal of Biometeorology最新文献

Climate change is reshaping the spring phenology of temperate fruit and nut trees worldwide, causing uneven bud break and yield losses across major production regions. Almond trees, including those cultivated in Afghanistan, are susceptible to these shifts. Afghanistan produces over 50 almond varieties, with official exports worth around USD 40 million in 2024. Yet, this value remains below potential due to multiple challenges along the value chain, one of which is the ongoing temperature increase affecting phenology and yields.

We projected the flowering dynamics of 51 Afghan almond cultivars using long-term temperature data (1980–2023) and phenological observations (2011–2023). Two historical reference periods (1980 and 2020) and future projections for 2050 and 2085 were simulated under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) based on 15 General Circulation Models. Bloom predictions were obtained using the PhenoFlex modeling framework with a recently developed combined-fitting approach. The model accurately reproduced observed bloom patterns, achieving a Root Mean Square Error of Prediction below four days for all cultivars. Compared to 1980, bloom dates advanced by roughly two weeks by 2020. Future projections suggest additional advances of up to 16 days for most cultivars, whereas a few exhibited delays of up to 12 days. Pronounced shifts exceeding seven days were found in about 25% of all predictions driven by specific cultivars, especially by 2085 under intermediate and high-emission scenarios. These results emphasize the significant and ongoing changes in almond phenology, highlighting the importance of adaptive management to sustain production and export potential under future climates.

This review examines the dual relationship between climate change and otolaryngology by assessing the environmental impacts on upper airway diseases, particularly allergic rhinitis (AR), and identifying concrete, evidence-based strategies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within surgical practice. A narrative literature review was conducted to provide an interpretative synthesis of current knowledge across two distinct but interconnected domains: climate-driven airway health impacts and the environmental sustainability of surgical care. Literature was purposively selected from major databases to support this discussion. Available evidence suggests that elevated CO₂ and particulate matter (PM2.5) act synergistically to increase the allergenicity and mucosal penetration of pollen, significantly exacerbating AR, chronic rhinosinusitis, and sleep-disordered breathing. Marginalized populations face disproportionate exposure to these health impacts due to socioeconomic disparities. In the surgical domain, healthcare contributes approximately 5.2% of global emissions, with operating rooms generating up to 30% of hospital waste. Transitioning from single-use devices to reusable alternatives—such as replacing disposable instruments that account for 68% of the carbon footprint in tonsillectomies—and optimizing anesthetic gas management significantly reduce Scope 3 emissions without compromising patient safety. Otolaryngologists face a critical dual challenge: managing the escalating, climate-driven burden of upper aerodigestive tract disorders while actively mitigating the specialty’s own carbon footprint. Recognizing socioeconomic vulnerabilities and adopting rigorous, LCA-backed sustainable surgical practices are vital. However, widespread clinical implementation remains restricted by infrastructural and financial constraints, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Climatotherapy (including thalassotherapy, sun exposure, and marine mud therapy) has long been used as a complementary intervention for musculoskeletal and rheumatologic disorders (MSRDs), yet its evidence base remains fragmented and methodologically heterogeneous. To synthesize the effectiveness and safety of climatotherapy in marine or Dead Sea environments for MSRDs, focusing on pain, physical function, and health-related quality of life. Following Joanna Briggs Institute methodology and PRISMA 2020, PubMed, PEDro, and the Cochrane Library were searched (May 2024; updated September 2025) for randomized and non-randomized trials of climatotherapy in marine or Dead Sea settings. Methodological quality was assessed with the PEDro scale. A structured narrative synthesis was complemented by a limited meta-analysis of pain; given the few trials and substantial heterogeneity, pooled estimates are exploratory. Ten articles representing nine studies (n = 465) were included. Interventions consistently produced short-term improvements in pain, physical function, and quality of life. Pooling was feasible only for pain (k = 2) and was statistically inconclusive, but condition-specific analysis showed a large, significant effect in osteoarthritis and a smaller, non-significant effect in fibromyalgia. Single-study estimates indicated benefits for tender point count and physical quality of life. No serious adverse events were reported, though safety was inconsistently assessed. Climatotherapy shows consistent short-term benefits, particularly for pain and physical function in osteoarthritis. Methodological limitations preclude firm pooled conclusions; rigorous multicenter trials with standardized outcomes and safety reporting are needed.

Trial RegistrationPROSPERO CRD42024534694 (registered May 2024).

Understanding long-term and intra-annual variations in human thermal discomfort is essential for climate-health assessments in climate-sensitive regions. In this paper, thermal comfort dynamics have been analyzed at seven locations in Northwestern India by utilizing Effective Temperature (ET) and Temperature-Humidity Index (THI) data for a period of 54 years (1969–2022). Climatic data for dry-bulb temperature (DBT), wet-bulb temperature (WBT), relative humidity (RH), and wind speed (WS) on a daily basis were acquired from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), while missing data were supplemented from NASA’s MERRA-2. Analyses were conducted at annual, seasonal, monthly, and weekly scales. Annual averages of ET and THI indicate generally comfortable conditions; however, higher-resolution analyses reveal substantial thermal stress periods that annual means obscure. At Delhi and Amritsar, ET shows either weak or non-significant trends, while THI exhibits significant warming due to increased WBT, reduced RH, and wind stilling. Trends analyzed on a monthly and weekly basis reveal pronounced seasonal intensification of heat stress. During the pre-summer period, ET shows notable warming, with weekly trends reaching + 0.081 to + 0.086 °C/year in Ambala and Patiala. Pre-monsoon warming is more evident in THI, increasing by + 0.058 to + 0.077 °C/year during mid-May in Delhi, Patiala, and Amritsar. Persistent peak heat from June to mid-July coincides with WBT increases of approximately + 0.05 °C/year at several stations. In contrast, winter and post-monsoon periods exhibit cooling in THI associated with reductions in WBT and DBT, while ET shows weaker declines due to concurrent decreases in wind speed. These contrasting ET and THI responses highlight the importance of multi-index and ventilation-sensitive assessments for thermal risk evaluation, public health preparedness, and climate adaptation planning in Northwestern India.

Mapping vegetation phenology in the high Arctic is critical for understanding ecosystem responses to rapid warming, but persistent cloud cover and low solar angles pose substantial challenges for optical satellite monitoring. We evaluated whether Landsat 8 can successfully map the start of growing season (SOS) at 78°N in Svalbard by developing spectral-based cloud detection algorithms tailored to Arctic conditions. From 17 images during the 2014 growing season, we generated cloud-free NDVI time series and extracted SOS dates at 30-m resolution across Adventdalen (Advent Valley). Validation against six field plots equipped with phenocameras demonstrated strong agreement (R² = 0.884, RMSE = 4.1 days, NSE = 0.869). The resulting SOS map revealed systematic spatial patterns ranging from late May to early August, with elevation explaining 6.6% of variance as the strongest single predictor. Combined topographic models (elevation, slope, distance from sea) explained 14.6% of variance, indicating that unmeasured factors particularly aspect, snow distribution, and vegetation composition exert dominant controls on phenological timing. These results confirm the viability of Landsat-based phenology mapping in the high Arctic. Critically, by establishing a validated processing framework this study provides the methodological foundation for application to the historical Landsat archive (Landsat 4/5 TM and Landsat 7 ETM+), subject to cross-sensor radiometric calibration. This opens unprecedented opportunities for reconstructing 30-m resolution phenological time series extending back to 1984, enabling quantification of four decades of vegetation responses to Arctic warming in regions experiencing some of Earth’s most rapid climate change.

The Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is the benchmark for occupational heat-stress assessment, yet its accuracy can be constrained by variability in humidity, air movement, and solar load. The Environmental Stress Index (ESI), derived from routinely available meteorological variables, has been proposed as a low-cost field surrogate. This study evaluated the agreement and physiological relevance of ESI versus WBGT among outdoor workers across arid and semi-arid climates in Iran. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 150 sand-and-gravel mine workers in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. Environmental and physiological data were collected at different times. The WBGT (based on ISO 7243) and ESI (based on ambient parameters) were calculated. Between-climate differences were analyzed using t-test or Mann–Whitney U; agreement was assessed by ICC; and associations with meteorological and physiological variables were evaluated using GEE (α = 0.05). In the semi-arid site, the values of both WBGT and ESI were higher during the warmer hours (p < 0.001). Regression analyses revealed statistically significant relationships between the thermal indices and most environmental parameters in both climates (p < 0.05). The agreement between WBGT and ESI was high (ICC_arid:0.98, ICC_semi−arid:0.97) with statistically significant correlations in both climates (p < 0.001). In the arid site, both WBGT and ESI showed significant positive correlations with physiological responses, whereas in the semi-arid site, only the ESI index exhibited significant correlations with physiological responses (p < 0.05). Overall, ESI demonstrated performance equivalent to WBGT in the arid site and was suitable for field screening applications. ESI shows strong agreement with WBGT and meaningful physiological validity in arid sites, making it a viable low-cost screening tool when WBGT devices are unavailable. It is recommended that industries in arid regions adopt ESI for daily heat-stress monitoring.

A growing number of studies suggest that exposure to particulate matters with aerodynamic diameters < 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) below air quality standards still increases the risk of death from cardiovascular disease (CVD), and the risk of death from ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, the largest cause of CVD death. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of PM_2.5 exposure at lower levels on years of life lost (YLL) and potential life expectancy benefits for IHD and stroke. We investigated the relationship between daily PM_2.5 and YLL for IHD and stroke using a generalized additive model (GAM) based on Poisson distribution. Furthermore, we extended our analysis to estimate the Potential Gain in Life Expectancy (PGLE) and the Attributable Fraction (AF) under the current Chinese air quality standards and more stringent World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines. Findings reveal that for each 10 µg/m³ increase in PM_2.5, YLL rose by 1.69 years for IHD and 1.34 years for stroke, with the most significant effects observed on the day of exposure for IHD and three days post-exposure for stroke. The impact was more pronounced among women and those aged ≥ 65 years. If PM_2.5 levels met the 2021 WHO air quality guidelines, PGLE of 0.22 years for IHD and 0.16 years for stroke could be achieved. The study highlights the need for stricter PM_2.5 control measures to enhance cardiovascular health and reduce mortality, even in regions with relatively low pollution levels.

Heat stress is a critical environmental factor disrupting systemic homeostasis and impairing mental health, with increasing evidence linking prolonged thermal exposure to depression and related neuropsychological disorders. Chronic heat stress induces neuroendocrine dysregulation via hyperactivation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, alongside oxidative stress, neuroinflammation, mitochondrial dysfunction, and altered neurotransmitter signaling, collectively elevating risks of mood disturbances, anxiety, cognitive decline, and sleep disorders. Emerging evidence highlights nutrition as a key modulator of heat stress–induced neuropathology. Adequate macronutrient intake supports energy balance and thermoregulation, while micronutrients such as B vitamins, vitamin D, magnesium, zinc, selenium, and iron are essential for neurotransmission, antioxidant defense, and immune function. Additionally, phytochemicals including polyphenols, flavonoids, and carotenoids exert neuroprotective, anti-inflammatory, and HPA-regulatory effects, partly through modulation of the gut-brain axis. This integrative approach offers promising non-pharmacological strategies to enhance resilience against heat-induced depression.

Nothotsuga longibracteata is an endangered tree species endemic to China whose conservation is constrained by limited information on habitat suitability. Using the biomod2 platform, we developed an ensemble model integrating climatic, topographic, edaphic, and human-related variables to predict its current and future potential distribution under climate change. The ensemble model consistently outperformed individual algorithms across evaluation metrics. The most important predictors were precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19), mean diurnal temperature range (Bio2), human footprint, elevation, precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18), and mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9). Under current conditions, the suitable habitat for N. longibracteata covers approximately 872.5 × 10³km², concentrated in Hunan, Jiangxi, and Guangxi, with high-suitability areas primarily in southern Hunan, northeastern Guangxi, and northwestern Guangdong. Future projections revealed a decoupling between habitat extent and habitat quality, with low-suitability areas expanding while moderate- and high-suitability habitats declined, accompanied by shifts in the distribution centroid toward higher latitudes and elevations. This pattern suggests that changes in total suitable area alone may underestimate decline risk. Given the limited overlap between suitable habitat and existing protected areas, we recommend prioritizing in situ conservation in core regions, especially Hunan and Guangxi, while considering Hubei, Anhui, and Chongqing as potential areas for assisted migration and climate-adaptive cultivation.

Clinical Trial Registration: Not applicable.

This study aimed to evaluate the association of medical mud-pack therapy with changes in gene expression of key inflammatory markers, miRNA and clinical outcomes in patients with knee osteoarthritis. Thirty-two patients with knee osteoarthritis were assigned to a medical mud-pack therapy (MMT) group (n = 16) or control group (n = 16). Molecular assessments used quantitative PCR for key cytokines and miRNA expressions. Clinical outcomes were evaluated with the VAS for pain and WOMAC for function. Pre- and post-treatment measurements were obtained, with the MMT group receiving mud-pack therapy plus standard care, while controls performed exercise only. The MMT group showed significant reductions in gene expression of TNF-α (1.90 ± 0.41 to 1.43 ± 0.33, p < 0.05), IL-6 (1.34 ± 0.31 to 0.93 ± 0.27, p < 0.05), and IL-1β (2.20 ± 0.40 to 1.81 ± 0.34, p < 0.05), whereas the control group showed no significant molecular changes. Between-group comparisons showed greater reductions in the MMT group for all cytokines (Δ difference: −0.38 to − 0.51, 95% CI not crossing zero, p < 0.05) with large effect sizes (d = 0.88–1.12). miR-140 expression remained unchanged in both groups (p > 0.05). Clinically, the MMT group showed significant VAS pain reduction after adjustment for baseline values (ANCOVA: post-treatment and first-month VAS both p < 0.001), while the control group showed minimal change. Groups were similar in age and sex distribution. Medical mud-pack therapy combined with exercise was associated with reduced expression of key inflammatory cytokines and pain relief in knee osteoarthritis. Further studies are required to explore underlying molecular mechanisms of mud-pack interventions.