Pub Date : 2026-07-01Epub Date: 2026-06-17DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113096
Andrea De Polis, Álvaro Fernández-Gallardo, José Nicolás Rosas
We analyze the asymmetric transmission of oil supply news shocks to the inflation distribution in the United States, the Euro Area, and the United Kingdom. Using quantile local projections and high-frequency identification, we document a stark asymmetry across these three large advanced economies: while median responses are transitory, the 90th quantile exhibits significant and persistent increases beyond one year. This upside tail sensitivity, consistent with state-dependent pricing, suggests that supply shocks are structural innovations to the skewness of the inflation distribution. Monetary policy should actively monitor such persistent inflation tail risks to keep expectations anchored.
{"title":"Oil supply shocks and inflation tail risks","authors":"Andrea De Polis, Álvaro Fernández-Gallardo, José Nicolás Rosas","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113096","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113096","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze the asymmetric transmission of oil supply news shocks to the inflation distribution in the United States, the Euro Area, and the United Kingdom. Using quantile local projections and high-frequency identification, we document a stark asymmetry across these three large advanced economies: while median responses are transitory, the 90th quantile exhibits significant and persistent increases beyond one year. This upside tail sensitivity, consistent with state-dependent pricing, suggests that supply shocks are structural innovations to the skewness of the inflation distribution. Monetary policy should actively monitor such persistent inflation tail risks to keep expectations anchored.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"267 ","pages":"Article 113096"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148526962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-07-01Epub Date: 2026-06-27DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113100
Joel W. Berge, Pablo Soto-Mota
We used a preregistered incentivized online experiment to examine whether unfair treatment increases dishonesty toward uninvolved third parties and whether observers anticipate such effects. Unfairly treated participants were not significantly more likely to lie for personal gain. In contrast, spectators were nearly twice as likely to bet that unfairly treated participants would lie and judged such lying as more morally acceptable following unfair treatment. These patterns provide preliminary evidence of a sizeable belief–behavior gap in expectations about how unfairness influences dishonesty.
{"title":"Mispredictions about dishonesty after unfair treatment","authors":"Joel W. Berge, Pablo Soto-Mota","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113100","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113100","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We used a preregistered incentivized online experiment to examine whether unfair treatment increases dishonesty toward uninvolved third parties and whether observers anticipate such effects. Unfairly treated participants were not significantly more likely to lie for personal gain. In contrast, spectators were nearly twice as likely to bet that unfairly treated participants would lie and judged such lying as more morally acceptable following unfair treatment. These patterns provide preliminary evidence of a sizeable belief–behavior gap in expectations about how unfairness influences dishonesty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"267 ","pages":"Article 113100"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148500700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-07-01Epub Date: 2026-06-17DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113101
Hong Li, Tao Li
This note analyzes how the moral hazard underlying one loss spills over to another. In a competitive insurance market with two mutually exclusive losses — one is subject to moral hazard while the other is not — we demonstrate that policyholders buy only partial insurance coverage for both losses, even if the second is free of moral hazard. Moreover, the coverage for the second loss is always more generous, and numerical analysis shows that the coverage gap widens with more efficient prevention efforts or lower risk aversion. A mutual assistance mechanism that allows acquainted policyholders to share uninsured risks is introduced to alleviate moral hazard and enhance social welfare.
{"title":"Moral hazard spillovers across losses","authors":"Hong Li, Tao Li","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113101","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113101","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This note analyzes how the moral hazard underlying one loss spills over to another. In a competitive insurance market with two mutually exclusive losses — one is subject to moral hazard while the other is not — we demonstrate that policyholders buy only partial insurance coverage for both losses, even if the second is free of moral hazard. Moreover, the coverage for the second loss is always more generous, and numerical analysis shows that the coverage gap widens with more efficient prevention efforts or lower risk aversion. A mutual assistance mechanism that allows acquainted policyholders to share uninsured risks is introduced to alleviate moral hazard and enhance social welfare.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"267 ","pages":"Article 113101"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148500701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-07-01Epub Date: 2026-06-29DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113104
Zhengzheng Cai, Xiaoyi Han, Jianchao Zhuo
This paper investigates the spatial autoregressive model with convex combination of spatial weights matrices categorized in groups, an empirically relevant specification that has received limited attention in the spatial econometrics literature. We employ the Group Inverse-Gamma Gamma (GIGG) prior introduced by Boss et al. (2024) to distinguish between relevant and irrelevant groups, identify influential spatial weights matrices, and mitigate multicollinearity arising from correlations among matrices within the same group. A computationally efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is developed for estimation, inference, and hyperparameter tuning. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed prior performs effectively in both parameter estimation and variable selection.
{"title":"Bayesian group shrinkage for spatial autoregressive model with convex combination of spatial weights matrices","authors":"Zhengzheng Cai, Xiaoyi Han, Jianchao Zhuo","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113104","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113104","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the spatial autoregressive model with convex combination of spatial weights matrices categorized in groups, an empirically relevant specification that has received limited attention in the spatial econometrics literature. We employ the Group Inverse-Gamma Gamma (GIGG) prior introduced by Boss et al. (2024) to distinguish between relevant and irrelevant groups, identify influential spatial weights matrices, and mitigate multicollinearity arising from correlations among matrices within the same group. A computationally efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is developed for estimation, inference, and hyperparameter tuning. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed prior performs effectively in both parameter estimation and variable selection.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"267 ","pages":"Article 113104"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148526958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-07-01Epub Date: 2026-06-28DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113116
Pedro Simon
I document that self-declared politically Independent households with partisan leanings change economic expectations in ways that resemble weak partisans. Republican leaners align more with weak Republicans, while Democratic leaners are similar to weak Democrats in their macroeconomic beliefs. This insight has important implications for survey design and for how researchers categorize political affiliation in economic analyses. Classifying leaners as neutral Independents can distort estimates of partisan differences.
{"title":"Partisan differences among independents: Evidence from household economic expectations","authors":"Pedro Simon","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113116","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113116","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I document that self-declared politically Independent households with partisan leanings change economic expectations in ways that resemble weak partisans. Republican leaners align more with weak Republicans, while Democratic leaners are similar to weak Democrats in their macroeconomic beliefs. This insight has important implications for survey design and for how researchers categorize political affiliation in economic analyses. Classifying leaners as neutral Independents can distort estimates of partisan differences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"267 ","pages":"Article 113116"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148500695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-07-01Epub Date: 2026-06-29DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113105
Pourya Valizadeh, Bart L. Fischer
Mean grocery spending by Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) households peaks at benefit receipt and declines thereafter. Using novel shopping receipt data with observed trip-level tender information across a range of retailers, store formats, and shopping channels, we examine whether households partially smooth grocery spending over the benefit cycle through substitution across payment sources and whether the effects of benefit receipt vary across the grocery spending distribution. We find evidence of smoothing at the extensive margin through modest increases in non-SNAP-funded shopping trips. Distributional analyses reveal more pronounced spending cycles at higher grocery spending quantiles along with suggestive evidence of weaker substitution toward non-SNAP-funded payment sources.
{"title":"The SNAP benefit cycle beyond the mean: Substitution across payment sources and distributional heterogeneity","authors":"Pourya Valizadeh, Bart L. Fischer","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113105","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113105","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mean grocery spending by Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) households peaks at benefit receipt and declines thereafter. Using novel shopping receipt data with observed trip-level tender information across a range of retailers, store formats, and shopping channels, we examine whether households partially smooth grocery spending over the benefit cycle through substitution across payment sources and whether the effects of benefit receipt vary across the grocery spending distribution. We find evidence of smoothing at the extensive margin through modest increases in non-SNAP-funded shopping trips. Distributional analyses reveal more pronounced spending cycles at higher grocery spending quantiles along with suggestive evidence of weaker substitution toward non-SNAP-funded payment sources.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"267 ","pages":"Article 113105"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148500696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-07-01Epub Date: 2026-06-25DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113106
Amr Saber Algarhi
Partisan theory predicts that left-leaning governments tolerate higher inflation, and UK data appear to confirm it. Before 1997, inflation averaged three percentage points higher under Labour than the Conservatives. I show this gap is not robust. It is the product of a single Labour government (1974–79) that coincided with the OPEC oil shocks; a randomisation test at the level of governments returns , and omitting any one of nine governments can swing the gap by up to four points. With so few in the sample, the data cannot sustain the partisan effect they appear to show.
{"title":"The fragility of the partisan inflation gap: Evidence from the United Kingdom","authors":"Amr Saber Algarhi","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113106","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113106","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Partisan theory predicts that left-leaning governments tolerate higher inflation, and UK data appear to confirm it. Before 1997, inflation averaged three percentage points higher under Labour than the Conservatives. I show this gap is not robust. It is the product of a single Labour government (1974–79) that coincided with the OPEC oil shocks; a randomisation test at the level of governments returns <span><math><mrow><mi>p</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>0.50</mn></mrow></math></span>, and omitting any one of nine governments can swing the gap by up to four points. With so few in the sample, the data cannot sustain the partisan effect they appear to show.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"267 ","pages":"Article 113106"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148500698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-07-01Epub Date: 2026-06-17DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113097
Gang Chen, Puguang Nie, Xibin Zhang
We employ a semiparametric stochastic frontier model with ordinal outcomes to study efficiency in producing overall life satisfaction. Inefficiency is specified as an unknown function of discrete characteristics using a nonparametric Nadaraya–Watson estimator. A Bayesian procedure is developed to estimate latent variables and model parameters, including the bandwidths of the nonparametric component. The empirical analysis examines the role of the Big Five personality traits and individual resilience, showing that individuals who are more extraverted, agreeable, conscientious, and resilient, or less neurotic, tend to be more efficient in converting satisfaction across multiple life domains into overall life satisfaction.
{"title":"Efficiency in producing life satisfaction: A stochastic frontier analysis","authors":"Gang Chen, Puguang Nie, Xibin Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113097","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113097","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We employ a semiparametric stochastic frontier model with ordinal outcomes to study efficiency in producing overall life satisfaction. Inefficiency is specified as an unknown function of discrete characteristics using a nonparametric Nadaraya–Watson estimator. A Bayesian procedure is developed to estimate latent variables and model parameters, including the bandwidths of the nonparametric component. The empirical analysis examines the role of the Big Five personality traits and individual resilience, showing that individuals who are more extraverted, agreeable, conscientious, and resilient, or less neurotic, tend to be more efficient in converting satisfaction across multiple life domains into overall life satisfaction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"267 ","pages":"Article 113097"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148500703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-07-01Epub Date: 2026-06-22DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113098
Kailin Ding, Zhenyu Cui, Yanchu Liu, Cai Kure Wu
The super manager model developed in Baranchuk et al. (2011) is revisited in this paper. We show that an important condition required for the firm’s optimization problem was overlooked. Once this condition is imposed, the market equilibrium derived in the original paper may fail to exist for certain parameter values. In particular, the existence of interior hierarchical equilibrium is conditional on managerial productivity exceeding organizational costs, and disappears when demand is sufficiently weak, in the sense that no admissible interior super-manager equilibrium exists
We derive the corrected equilibrium system and provide numerical illustrations showing that sufficiently weak demand can eliminate any admissible interior super-manager equilibrium. Our results not only clarify the conditions under which the equilibrium of the super manager model is well defined, but also provide economic interpretations when no admissible interior super-manager equilibrium exists.
本文对Baranchuk et al.（2011）提出的超级管理者模型进行了重新审视。我们发现企业优化问题的一个重要条件被忽略了。一旦这个条件被施加，原论文中推导的市场均衡对于某些参数值可能不存在。特别是，内部层级均衡的存在以管理生产率超过组织成本为条件，当需求足够弱时，即不存在可容许的内部超级管理者均衡时，内部层级均衡就会消失。我们推导出修正的均衡系统，并提供数值说明，足够弱的需求可以消除任何可容许的内部超级管理者均衡。本文的研究结果不仅阐明了超级经理模型均衡的良好定义条件，而且还提供了不存在可容许的内部超级经理均衡的经济解释。
{"title":"On the existence of equilibrium in the super manager model","authors":"Kailin Ding, Zhenyu Cui, Yanchu Liu, Cai Kure Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113098","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113098","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The super manager model developed in Baranchuk et al. (2011) is revisited in this paper. We show that an important condition required for the firm’s optimization problem was overlooked. Once this condition is imposed, the market equilibrium derived in the original paper may fail to exist for certain parameter values. In particular, the existence of interior hierarchical equilibrium is conditional on managerial productivity exceeding organizational costs, and disappears when demand is sufficiently weak, in the sense that no admissible interior super-manager equilibrium exists</div><div>We derive the corrected equilibrium system and provide numerical illustrations showing that sufficiently weak demand can eliminate any admissible interior super-manager equilibrium. Our results not only clarify the conditions under which the equilibrium of the super manager model is well defined, but also provide economic interpretations when no admissible interior super-manager equilibrium exists.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"267 ","pages":"Article 113098"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148500715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-07-01Epub Date: 2026-06-19DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113089
Lucía Cobreros, Carlos Sunyer, Judit Vall Castelló
We find that gender-neutral financial incentives increased the share of male General Practice (GP) residents by 30% in Catalonia, Spain. Exploiting a salary supplement policy for GP residents and a synthetic difference-in-differences design, we estimate an increase of 8.3 percentage points, with effects concentrated in areas receiving larger wage increases. We also document suggestive evidence of lower GP vacancy rates in treated regions after the policy, although this pattern cannot be interpreted causally. To our knowledge, these results provide the first causal evidence that gender-neutral financial incentives can attract men into a highly feminized occupation.
{"title":"Paying for parity: Incentivizing men in feminized occupations","authors":"Lucía Cobreros, Carlos Sunyer, Judit Vall Castelló","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113089","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113089","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We find that gender-neutral financial incentives increased the share of male General Practice (GP) residents by 30% in Catalonia, Spain. Exploiting a salary supplement policy for GP residents and a synthetic difference-in-differences design, we estimate an increase of 8.3 percentage points, with effects concentrated in areas receiving larger wage increases. We also document suggestive evidence of lower GP vacancy rates in treated regions after the policy, although this pattern cannot be interpreted causally. To our knowledge, these results provide the first causal evidence that gender-neutral financial incentives can attract men into a highly feminized occupation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"267 ","pages":"Article 113089"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148526963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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