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The Determinants of Post-Sanctions Economic Recovery 制裁后经济复苏的决定因素
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-08-27 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251372059
Dongan Tan, Hoan La
Why do some countries recover swiftly after economic sanctions are lifted, while others face prolonged stagnation? Despite extensive research on the initiation and effectiveness of sanctions, their aftermath remains understudied. This study develops a theoretical framework to explain post-sanctions economic recovery, focusing on three key determinants: domestic institutional quality, international investment, and sanctions characteristics. Using duration analysis on data from 1960 to 2023, we find that government effectiveness accelerates long-term recovery, while foreign direct investment drives short-term rebounds. Sanctions characteristics yield mixed results: sanction costs show no significant effect, while success and duration are associated with slower recovery. These findings contribute to a broader understanding of how states rebuild after economic disruption, highlighting the role of institutional resilience and external economic reintegration. By bridging the gap between sanctions and economic resilience research, this study provides insights for policymakers seeking to mitigate long-term economic costs and design more effective recovery strategies.
为什么一些国家在解除经济制裁后迅速复苏,而另一些国家却面临长期停滞?尽管对制裁的开始和效力进行了广泛的研究,但对其后果的研究仍然不足。本研究建立了一个理论框架来解释制裁后的经济复苏,重点关注三个关键决定因素:国内制度质量、国际投资和制裁特征。通过对1960 - 2023年数据的持续时间分析,我们发现政府有效性加速了长期复苏,而外国直接投资推动了短期反弹。制裁的特点产生了好坏参半的结果:制裁成本没有显示出显著的影响,而成功和持续时间则与较慢的恢复有关。这些发现有助于更广泛地理解国家在经济崩溃后如何重建,突出了制度弹性和外部经济重新融合的作用。通过弥合制裁和经济弹性研究之间的差距,本研究为寻求降低长期经济成本和设计更有效的复苏战略的政策制定者提供了见解。
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引用次数: 0
Military Experience and Casualty Sensitivity in Elite Discourse: Evidence From the U.S. Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan 精英话语中的军事经验和伤亡敏感性:来自美国伊拉克和阿富汗战争的证据
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-08-27 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251365535
Michael R. Kenwick, Sumin Lee, Burcu Kolcak
Veterans are disproportionately represented among political elites, and the question of whether military experience shapes their behavior is a central puzzle in the study of international relations. Existing theories link military experience with hawkish or dovish foreign policy preferences. Rather than determining their positions on the use of force ex ante, we argue that domain-specific knowledge and their elevated social status will make veterans less likely to change their expressed positions, especially in response to wartime casualties. We test our argument by analyzing Congressional speeches referencing the American wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, finding strong support for our expectations. Our core insight is that veteran politicians are partisans first and veterans second, and that military experience may say more about how they update, rather than establish, their political positions.
退伍军人在政治精英中所占的比例过高,而军事经历是否会影响他们的行为,是国际关系研究中的一个核心难题。现有的理论将军事经验与鹰派或鸽派的外交政策倾向联系起来。我们认为,不是预先确定他们对使用武力的立场,而是特定领域的知识和他们较高的社会地位将使退伍军人不太可能改变他们表达的立场,特别是在应对战时伤亡时。我们通过分析国会关于美国在伊拉克和阿富汗战争的演讲来验证我们的观点,发现我们的期望得到了强有力的支持。我们的核心观点是,资深政治家首先是游击队员,其次才是退伍军人,而军事经验可能更多地说明他们如何更新,而不是建立自己的政治立场。
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引用次数: 0
Criminal Conflicts and the Killing of Law Enforcement Officers in Mexico 墨西哥的犯罪冲突和对执法人员的杀害
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251370091
Marco Alcocer
Violence against law enforcement by criminal organizations is pervasive in Latin America yet largely unexplored. What explains why and where law enforcement is violently attacked, who is targeted, and how they are killed? This article contends that conflicts between criminal organizations incentivize warring organizations to attack law enforcement, particularly local officers, with more brazen violence. Two original datasets on killings of law enforcement in Mexico show that killings are overwhelmingly of local officers and most frequently perpetrated through coordinated attacks, not confrontations, executions, or kidnappings. Using data on cartels, I first document a strong association between criminal conflicts and the killing of law enforcement officers, and find that the association is driven by killings of state and municipal officers rather than federal officers enforcing the government crackdown. I further show that criminal conflicts increase brazen killings and killings of officers while off duty.
犯罪组织对执法的暴力行为在拉丁美洲普遍存在,但在很大程度上尚未得到研究。如何解释为什么以及在哪里执法部门受到暴力袭击,目标是谁,以及他们是如何被杀害的?本文认为,犯罪组织之间的冲突促使交战组织以更加肆无忌惮的暴力攻击执法部门,特别是地方官员。两组关于墨西哥执法人员被杀的原始数据显示,杀戮绝大多数是针对当地官员的,而且最常见的是通过协同袭击实施的,而不是对抗、处决或绑架。利用卡特尔的数据,我首先证明了犯罪冲突与杀害执法人员之间的强烈联系,并发现这种联系是由杀害州和市政官员而不是执行政府镇压的联邦官员推动的。我进一步表明,犯罪冲突增加了肆无忌惮的杀戮和在下班时杀害警官。
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引用次数: 0
Winning Hearts and Minds? How the United States Reassured During the Russo-Ukrainian War 赢得人心?俄乌战争期间美国如何安抚
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-08-12 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251363229
Lauren Sukin, Stephen Herzog, Alexander Lanoszka
Decades of scholarship hold that great powers shore up global confidence during crises with strong demonstrations of resolve. A much smaller literature critiques these assumptions, suggesting that restraint may strengthen confidence. When and why do restraint or resolve reassure, and for whom? In light of Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, we appraise early U.S. attempts to reassure allies and partners using public opinion surveys in 24 countries on six continents. Our novel data, which cover rarely surveyed publics, illuminates conditions under which restraint or resolve reassure. We introduce theoretical mechanisms that predict individuals’ propensity to be reassured by resolve or restraint: prior beliefs about the use of force and geopolitical positioning. The results challenge dominant scholarly narratives. Respondents worldwide were reassured by restraint. Forgoing direct intervention in the Russo-Ukrainian War strengthened the U.S.-led order, successfully balancing NATO members’ interests with those of U.S. Indo-Pacific and Global South partners.
几十年来的学术研究认为,大国在危机期间以坚定的决心支撑全球信心。一份规模小得多的文献对这些假设提出了批评,认为克制可能会增强信心。什么时候,为什么克制或解决能让人安心,为了谁?鉴于俄罗斯2022年将全面入侵乌克兰,我们通过对六大洲24个国家的民意调查来评估美国早期安抚盟友和伙伴的努力。我们的新数据涵盖了很少调查的公众,阐明了约束或解决的条件。我们介绍了预测个人倾向于通过解决或约束来获得安慰的理论机制:关于使用武力和地缘政治定位的先验信念。研究结果挑战了主流学术叙事。世界各地的受访者都对克制感到放心。放弃对俄乌战争的直接干预加强了美国主导的秩序,成功地平衡了北约成员国与美国印太和全球南方伙伴的利益。
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引用次数: 0
Nationalism, Regime Type, and Trade Agreements 民族主义、政权类型和贸易协定
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251365162
Edward D. Mansfield, Jon C. W. Pevehouse
Nationalism is on the rise throughout the world. Scholars and practitioners have expressed concern about the effects of rising nationalism on international cooperation, arguing that nationalism poses a risk to the liberal international economic order. Other observers maintain that nationalism need not be associated with trade protectionism. Yet there has been little cross-country research on the effects of nationalism on trade cooperation. We argue that nationalism has led to a reluctance to sign trade agreements in democracies, but that its effects on trade policy in autocracies are ambiguous. Nationalism in the public is associated with antipathy toward trade. Since democratically elected governments must be responsive to their constituents or risk losing office, nationalist governments in democratic countries tend to be protectionist. We find a strong negative relationship between nationalism and signing trade agreements in democracies. These findings shed light on the dynamics of trade and globalization in the current era of nationalism.
民族主义在世界范围内呈上升趋势。学者和实践者对民族主义抬头对国际合作的影响表示担忧,认为民族主义对自由主义的国际经济秩序构成了威胁。其他观察人士则认为,民族主义不必与贸易保护主义联系在一起。然而,关于民族主义对贸易合作影响的跨国研究却很少。我们认为,民族主义导致民主国家不愿签署贸易协定,但它对专制国家贸易政策的影响是模糊的。公众中的民族主义与对贸易的反感联系在一起。由于民主选举产生的政府必须对选民做出回应,否则就有可能下台,因此民主国家的民族主义政府往往是保护主义者。我们发现,在民主国家,民族主义与签署贸易协定之间存在强烈的负相关关系。这些发现揭示了当前民族主义时代贸易和全球化的动态。
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引用次数: 0
Alliance Formation in Regional Space: Shifting the Battlefront Between Competing Hegemonial Powers 区域空间中的联盟形成:竞争霸权国之间战线的转移
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251359720
Kai A. Konrad, Florian Morath
Motivated by the history of military alliances during and after the Cold War, we study the sequential expansion of the hegemonial alliances of two great powers. Geography matters for the allocation of the collateral damage of a future military conflict. Current frontline countries bear a major burden. They would prefer to pass this collateral damage on to new members. This motive can drive expansion, which comes to an end only when all remaining non-affiliated countries have been absorbed by one of the two alliances. Those countries are willing to make concessions as part of the accession negotiations, and the overall value of the concessions can reach multiples of the actual collateral damage of military conflict. As a result, alliance expansion may continue beyond what would be optimal from a security perspective.
以冷战期间和冷战后军事联盟的历史为背景,我们研究了两个大国霸权联盟的连续扩张。地理位置对未来军事冲突附带损害的分配很重要。目前的一线国家承担着重大负担。他们更愿意把这种附带损害转嫁给新成员。这种动机可以推动扩张,只有当所有剩余的非联盟国家都被两个联盟中的一个吸收时,扩张才会结束。作为入盟谈判的一部分,这些国家愿意做出让步,而这些让步的总价值可以达到军事冲突实际附带损害的数倍。因此,从安全角度来看,联盟扩张可能会超出最佳范围。
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引用次数: 0
Power, Parity, and Place: Why Forgetting the Loss-of-Strength Gradient Misses the Relative Power Relationship 权力、奇偶性和位置:为什么忘记了力量丧失梯度而忽略了相对权力关系
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251362147
M. Patrick Hulme, Erik Gartzke, Alex Braithwaite, Lauren Gilbert
Students of international relations continue to debate the role of power as a cause of conflict. In particular, there exists no consensus about whether power parity or preponderance is more likely to trigger militarized disputes. Generally overlooked in this and related controversies is the question of where power is actually exercised. It is widely accepted that a state’s power declines with distance. This “loss-of-strength gradient” in turn must imply that the relative power of any combination of countries is not a constant, but rather varies spatially at different locations around the globe. Implementing this simple but as yet undocumented insight to the debate over the effects of relative power, we show that “proximate power”—i.e., power adjusted for the loss-of-strength imposed by distance—reveals a close relationship between parity and conflict onset. The finding conforms with the expectations of modern bargaining approaches to war, which emphasize the role uncertainty plays in precipitating military contests.
国际关系专业的学生继续就权力作为冲突起因的作用进行辩论。特别是,对于实力均势还是优势更有可能引发军事争端,目前还没有达成共识。在这个和相关的争议中,通常被忽视的是权力实际在哪里行使的问题。人们普遍认为,一个国家的实力会随着距离的远近而减弱。这种“实力丧失梯度”反过来必然意味着,任何国家组合的相对实力都不是恒定的,而是在全球不同地点的空间变化。将这一简单但尚未记录在案的见解应用到有关相对权力影响的辩论中,我们表明“近似权力”——即:根据距离造成的力量损失调整后的权力,揭示了平等与冲突爆发之间的密切关系。这一发现符合现代战争谈判方法的预期,即强调不确定性在促成军事竞赛中所起的作用。
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引用次数: 0
I Still Haven’t Found what I’m Looking for: Predicting Security-Related Incidents and Conflict Fatalities with Google Trends and Wikipedia Data 我还没有找到我要找的:用谷歌趋势和维基百科数据预测安全相关事件和冲突死亡
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251362832
Christian Oswald
Conflict forecasting has seen two recent developments: a shift to predicting continuous variables and a debate about the value of structural and procedural variables. This paper contributes to these efforts and proposes the category of salience variables in the form of Google Trends and Wikipedia data. Internet searches can be precursors of conflict intensity as a result of for example an increase in protests, violent behavior, or public announcements. Data are readily and openly available, updated in real time, and provide global coverage which makes it ideal for near-real time forecasting. Prediction targets are the number of security-related incidents and battle-related, non-state, and civilian casualties. I demonstrate the value of salience variables using various out-of-sample windows and performance metrics on the country- and province-month level. I find evidence that salience variables have considerable predictive power, outperform other commonly used variables, and are thus a valuable addition to the conflict forecasting toolkit.
冲突预测最近有两个发展趋势:一是转向预测连续变量,二是关于结构变量和程序变量价值的辩论。本文为这些努力做出了贡献,并提出了谷歌趋势和维基百科数据形式的显著变量类别。互联网搜索可能是冲突强度的先兆,例如抗议、暴力行为或公告的增加。数据随时可公开获取,实时更新,并提供全球覆盖,使其成为近实时预测的理想选择。预测目标是与安全有关的事件和与战斗有关的、非国家和平民伤亡的数量。我使用不同的样本外窗口和国家/省/月级别的性能指标来演示显著性变量的值。我发现有证据表明,显著变量具有相当大的预测能力,优于其他常用变量,因此是冲突预测工具包的一个有价值的补充。
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引用次数: 0
Moral Hazard or State Capacity? U.S. Military Assistance and Political Violence in Pakistan 道德风险还是国家能力?美国在巴基斯坦的军事援助和政治暴力
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-07-28 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251361656
Syeda ShahBano Ijaz
Does U.S. military assistance affect domestic patterns of political violence? Military aid can improve the recipient country’s military capacity, but also create an incentive for prolonging conflict to secure future assistance. This moral hazard can manifest by geographically displacing conflict away from military strongholds while demonstrating an aggregate country-wide decrease in levels of violence. I analyze U.S. military assistance to Pakistan and find that aid can decrease the aggregate level of political violence in the short run. However, this short-run decrease is accompanied by a displacement of violence away from military headquarters. The discontinuity created by the sudden withdrawal of U.S. military assistance after Pakistan’s nuclear program, followed by its resumption post-9/11, lends causal purchase to my results, as does the historical location of military headquarters that were established by colonizers and have persisted in post-independence Pakistan.
美国的军事援助会影响国内的政治暴力模式吗?军事援助可以提高受援国的军事能力,但也会造成延长冲突以确保未来援助的动机。这种道德风险可以表现为在地理上使冲突远离军事据点,同时显示出全国范围内暴力水平的总体下降。我分析了美国对巴基斯坦的军事援助,发现援助可以在短期内降低政治暴力的总体水平。然而,伴随这种短期减少而来的是暴力从军事总部转移出去。在巴基斯坦的核计划之后,美国突然撤出军事援助,随后又在9/11事件后恢复援助,造成了这种中断,这对我的结论有因果关系,就像殖民者建立的军事总部的历史位置一样,这些军事总部在独立后的巴基斯坦一直存在。
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引用次数: 0
Economic Theory of Alliances: Sixty Years Later 联盟的经济理论:六十年后
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-07-15 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251359626
Todd Sandler, Justin George
The main purpose of this retrospective of the economic theory of alliances is to characterize three basic paradigms: purely public deterrence, spatial connectivity, and joint products. For each model, allies’ military expenditure (ME) responds differently to the aggregate ME of the other allies, known as defense spillins, thereby resulting in diverse burden sharing, allocative implications, membership composition, and institutional recommendations. The underlying theoretical models determine reduced-form equations for allies’ interdependent defense demands. We examine how changes in strategic doctrines, weapons technology, enemy threats, and membership composition affected NATO burden sharing and its allocative efficiency over time. Generally, changes that increase the share of excludable defense benefits possess a better prognosis for burden sharing and allocative efficiency. Principles and insights from the economic theory of alliances are related to defense demands at the operational level and for non-NATO alliances.
回顾联盟经济理论的主要目的是描述三种基本范式:纯公共威慑、空间连通性和联合产品。对于每个模型,盟国的军费支出(ME)对其他盟国的总军费支出的反应不同,称为国防溢出,从而导致不同的负担分担、分配影响、成员组成和制度建议。潜在的理论模型确定了盟国相互依赖的防御需求的简化方程。我们研究了战略理论、武器技术、敌人威胁和成员构成的变化如何随着时间的推移影响北约的负担分担及其分配效率。一般而言,增加排他性防卫利益份额的变化对负担分担和分配效率具有更好的预测。联盟经济理论的原则和见解与作战层面和非北约联盟的防御需求有关。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Conflict Resolution
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