Food policy often struggles to reach diverse population groups, and well-intentioned interventions can sometimes exacerbate inequalities along socio-demographic groups. This systematic data review examines whether default nudges in food choices have consistent effects across different socio-demographic groups, or whether their impact varies depending on factors such as education level, age, and gender. After selecting eligible studies, authors from 12 studies shared their primary data and were subsequently included in the Default Nudge Research & Data Sharing Consortium (Table A2). These primary data enabled us to analyze 40 interaction effects examining whether age, gender, and education moderate the effectiveness of defaults relative to active choice conditions. Results show no consistent and rarely any interaction effects, suggesting defaults influence food decisions similarly across socio-demographic groups. A possible exception is that harmful defaults may be more effective among less educated individuals. These findings highlight default nudges as a broadly equitable behavioral tool in food policy design.
粮食政策往往难以覆盖不同的人口群体，而善意的干预有时会加剧社会人口群体之间的不平等。这项系统的数据回顾研究了食物选择中的默认推力是否在不同的社会人口群体中具有一致的影响，或者它们的影响是否因教育水平、年龄和性别等因素而异。在选择符合条件的研究后，来自12项研究的作者分享了他们的主要数据，并随后被纳入Default Nudge Research & data Sharing Consortium（表A2）。这些原始数据使我们能够分析40种交互效应，检查年龄、性别和教育程度是否会相对于主动选择条件缓和默认的有效性。结果显示没有一致的，很少有任何相互作用的影响，这表明默认影响食物决策在社会人口群体中是相似的。一个可能的例外是，有害的违约在受教育程度较低的个人中可能更有效。这些发现强调了默认推动是食品政策设计中广泛公平的行为工具。
{"title":"Defaults harmonize our food choices – a systematic data review of default effects across socio-demographic groups","authors":"Dominic Lemken , Aline Simonetti , Sanchayan Banerjee , Paul Lohmann","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103114","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103114","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Food policy often struggles to reach diverse population groups, and well-intentioned interventions can sometimes exacerbate inequalities along socio-demographic groups. This systematic data review examines whether default nudges in food choices have consistent effects across different socio-demographic groups, or whether their impact varies depending on factors such as education level, age, and gender. After selecting eligible studies, authors from 12 studies shared their primary data and were subsequently included in the Default Nudge Research & Data Sharing Consortium (Table A2). These primary data enabled us to analyze 40 interaction effects examining whether age, gender, and education moderate the effectiveness of defaults relative to active choice conditions. Results show no consistent and rarely any interaction effects, suggesting defaults influence food decisions similarly across socio-demographic groups. A possible exception is that harmful defaults may be more effective among less educated individuals. These findings highlight default nudges as a broadly equitable behavioral tool in food policy design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"141 ","pages":"Article 103114"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148167710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2025-12-15DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102854
Jan Jozwik
This paper investigates the effect of ambiguity on technology adoption under index insurance. I conduct an artefactual field experiment with Ghanaian cocoa farmers. Experimental subjects had an option to invest in a package of fertilizer bundled with index insurance. The returns depended both on the subjects’ investment choices and on a stochastic weather realization. The key ingredient of the study was whether the exact probability of bad weather was known or not. This probability was ambiguous in the experimental treatments, and the degree of this ambiguity varied across treatments. A large negative effect on fertilizer investments was found in treatments with either small or large ambiguity. The effect of large ambiguity was also found to be significantly stronger, suggesting that technologies with which farmers are relatively more experienced are more likely to be adopted under index insurance schemes. I provide new evidence that ambiguity may be a significant factor limiting the effectiveness of index insurance in promoting agricultural innovation. The overall findings are complementary to related recent randomized controlled trials, since it is effectively impossible to precisely calibrate and vary the level of ambiguity using the latter methodology.
{"title":"Ambiguity and technology adoption under index insurance: Experimental evidence","authors":"Jan Jozwik","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102854","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102854","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the effect of ambiguity on technology adoption under index insurance. I conduct an artefactual field experiment with Ghanaian cocoa farmers. Experimental subjects had an option to invest in a package of fertilizer bundled with index insurance. The returns depended both on the subjects’ investment choices and on a stochastic weather realization. The key ingredient of the study was whether the exact probability of bad weather was known or not. This probability was ambiguous in the experimental treatments, and the degree of this ambiguity varied across treatments. A large negative effect on fertilizer investments was found in treatments with either small or large ambiguity. The effect of large ambiguity was also found to be significantly stronger, suggesting that technologies with which farmers are relatively more experienced are more likely to be adopted under index insurance schemes. I provide new evidence that ambiguity may be a significant factor limiting the effectiveness of index insurance in promoting agricultural innovation. The overall findings are complementary to related recent randomized controlled trials, since it is effectively impossible to precisely calibrate and vary the level of ambiguity using the latter methodology.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"141 ","pages":"Article 102854"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148167711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-02-12DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103048
Alice R. Kininmonth , Rebecca A. Stone , Victoria Jenneson , Emily Ennis , Robyn Naisbitt , Alexandra M. Johnstone , Michelle A. Morris , Alison Fildes , the DIO Food Team
Background
In 2022, legislation in England restricted products high in fat, sugar, or salt (HFSS) in prominent store locations. This study explores retail sector (including enforcement of legislation in retail) responses to the legislation’s implementation.
Methods
Four major UK retailers – ASDA, Morrisons, Sainsbury’s and Tesco − completed business-level online surveys. Interviews were conducted with representatives from three retailers (n = 13; Asda, Morrisons, Sainsbury’s), the British Retail Consortium (n = 1), and primary authority enforcement (n = 1) (N = 15). Data were collected between July and November 2024. Findings informed co-production workshops (n = 3) to develop policy recommendations.
Results
Stakeholders supported legislation aims but voiced concerns about complexities with interpretation and implementation, limited communication with government, access to product nutrition data, and delays to guidance. Retailers utilised various HFSS product promotional strategies while achieving compliance. Retailers reported very limited enforcement. These findings were synthesised and facilitated the development of seven policy recommendations through co-production workshops between academics and the Institute of Grocery distribution.
Conclusion
HFSS legislation represents a landmark shift in regulation of the retail food environment, but clearer, timely guidance, data provision, and transparent co-production with actors cognisant of the food sector is needed to ensure legislation can be effectively implemented, enforced and evaluated.
{"title":"“It was a force for good but…”: a mixed-methods evaluation of the implementation of the high in fat, sugar and salt (HFSS) legislation in England","authors":"Alice R. Kininmonth , Rebecca A. Stone , Victoria Jenneson , Emily Ennis , Robyn Naisbitt , Alexandra M. Johnstone , Michelle A. Morris , Alison Fildes , the DIO Food Team","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103048","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103048","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>In 2022, legislation in England restricted products high in fat, sugar, or salt (HFSS) in prominent store locations. This study explores retail sector (including enforcement of legislation in retail) responses to the legislation’s implementation.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Four major UK retailers – ASDA, Morrisons, Sainsbury’s and Tesco − completed business-level online surveys. Interviews were conducted with representatives from three retailers (n = 13; Asda, Morrisons, Sainsbury’s), the British Retail Consortium (n = 1), and primary authority enforcement (n = 1) (N = 15). Data were collected between July and November 2024. Findings informed co-production workshops (n = 3) to develop policy recommendations.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Stakeholders supported legislation aims but voiced concerns about complexities with interpretation and implementation, limited communication with government, access to product nutrition data, and delays to guidance. Retailers utilised various HFSS product promotional strategies while achieving compliance. Retailers reported very limited enforcement. These findings were synthesised and facilitated the development of seven policy recommendations through co-production workshops between academics and the Institute of Grocery distribution.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>HFSS legislation represents a landmark shift in regulation of the retail food environment, but clearer, timely guidance, data provision, and transparent co-production with actors cognisant of the food sector is needed to ensure legislation can be effectively implemented, enforced and evaluated.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103048"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146170194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-02-05DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103046
Daye Kwon , Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie , Thomas Reardon , Nicole M. Mason , Oyinkan Tasie
We study the preferences of Nigerian maize wholesalers regarding interventions or measures (henceforth, “policies”) aimed at preventing or mitigating the effects of violent conflicts and extreme weather events on their trade. Using the best-worst scaling method, we evaluate their preferences for nine policy options related to conflict shocks and eight policy options for weather shocks, categorized into hard and soft infrastructure policy measures. The method was implemented using primary survey data collected from 300 urban and regional market maize wholesalers across major maize-producing and consuming states in Nigeria, including Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, and Plateau in the north, as well as Oyo in the south. The key findings include: (1) wholesalers strongly prefer road security soft infrastructure for conflict shocks and flood-proofing hard infrastructure for weather shocks; (2) wholesalers, in general, value cash relief after shocks; (3) women wholesalers prioritize public hard infrastructure over cash relief; (4) wholesalers in the relatively safer southern region prioritize road security against conflict and banditry on long supply routes from the northern maize-producing region more than northern wholesalers, who source locally; and (5) more educated wholesalers favor market-oriented solutions like insurance and loans. These results highlight the need for tailored policy responses aligned with different shocks and wholesaler characteristics.
{"title":"Addressing conflict and weather shocks in agrifood value chains: policy preferences of Nigerian maize wholesalers","authors":"Daye Kwon , Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie , Thomas Reardon , Nicole M. Mason , Oyinkan Tasie","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103046","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103046","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the preferences of Nigerian maize wholesalers regarding interventions or measures (henceforth, “policies”) aimed at preventing or mitigating the effects of violent conflicts and extreme weather events on their trade. Using the best-worst scaling method, we evaluate their preferences for nine policy options related to conflict shocks and eight policy options for weather shocks, categorized into hard and soft infrastructure policy measures. The method was implemented using primary survey data collected from 300 urban and regional market maize wholesalers across major maize-producing and consuming states in Nigeria, including Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, and Plateau in the north, as well as Oyo in the south. The key findings include: (1) wholesalers strongly prefer road security soft infrastructure for conflict shocks and flood-proofing hard infrastructure for weather shocks; (2) wholesalers, in general, value cash relief after shocks; (3) women wholesalers prioritize public hard infrastructure over cash relief; (4) wholesalers in the relatively safer southern region prioritize road security against conflict and banditry on long supply routes from the northern maize-producing region more than northern wholesalers, who source locally; and (5) more educated wholesalers favor market-oriented solutions like insurance and loans. These results highlight the need for tailored policy responses aligned with different shocks and wholesaler characteristics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103046"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146170196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-01-10DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103037
Michael Olabisi , Uswat Adeyemi , Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie
Which households experience the most significant changes in their nutritional profile during economic crises? This paper presents evidence from Nigeria’s economic crisis of 2023–24, marked by food price inflation of more than 40% at its peak. Our study investigates how household income can help alleviate the adverse effects of inflation, particularly in households with female income earners. Our findings reveal that households with income-earning women had higher dietary diversity, all else equal. However, these households are more susceptible to inflation-induced declines, particularly in rural areas. Overall, our study highlights the critical role of women income earners and the importance of diversifying household income sources to enhance resilience against economic shocks.
{"title":"Female earnings and dietary diversity: Evidence from an inflationary economic crisis","authors":"Michael Olabisi , Uswat Adeyemi , Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103037","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103037","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Which households experience the most significant changes in their nutritional profile during economic crises? This paper presents evidence from Nigeria’s economic crisis of 2023–24, marked by food price inflation of more than 40% at its peak. Our study investigates how household income can help alleviate the adverse effects of inflation, particularly in households with female income earners. Our findings reveal that households with income-earning women had higher dietary diversity, all else equal. However, these households are more susceptible to inflation-induced declines, particularly in rural areas. Overall, our study highlights the critical role of women income earners and the importance of diversifying household income sources to enhance resilience against economic shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103037"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145941521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-01-16DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103033
Tobias Holmsgaard Rønn , Christoph Schulze , Mikołaj Czajkowski , Bettina Matzdorf , Olga M. Moreno-Pérez , Søren Bøye Olsen , Mette Termansen , Wojciech Zawadzki
European ambitions for more sustainable food systems rely, in part, on expanding the production and consumption of food legumes. Yet European food legume value chains remain marginal, and EU and national level supporting policies are few. We apply Q–methodology to provide novel evidence about stakeholder perceptions of the relative importance of current value chain barriers and their interrelationship, while also exploring how these perceptions vary among stakeholders from different European countries. Based on a Principal Component Analysis of 91 Danish, German, Polish, and Spanish value chain stakeholders’ sorting of 28 barrier statements, we extract five shared viewpoints, pointing out the perceived most important barriers: (1) a lack of capacity for end-product production and use; (2) unattractive legume products; (3) governance, institutional and capacity gaps; (4) unfavorable food system conditions; and (5) a restricted domestic raw material production. Cross–country analyses reveal that some viewpoints are widely shared, whereas others are country–specific. Our findings underscore the need for a flexible portfolio of European and national policy measures, such as educational initiatives, institutional support, network development, and coordinated national and regional strategies, to effectively address the value chain barriers currently inhibiting the realization of the full potential of food legumes as a pathway toward a more sustainable European food system.
{"title":"Weak pulse: a Q-methodology study of stakeholder viewpoints on barriers in European food legume value chains","authors":"Tobias Holmsgaard Rønn , Christoph Schulze , Mikołaj Czajkowski , Bettina Matzdorf , Olga M. Moreno-Pérez , Søren Bøye Olsen , Mette Termansen , Wojciech Zawadzki","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103033","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103033","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>European ambitions for more sustainable food systems rely, in part, on expanding the production and consumption of food legumes. Yet European food legume value chains remain marginal, and EU and national level supporting policies are few. We apply Q–methodology to provide novel evidence about stakeholder perceptions of the relative importance of current value chain barriers and their interrelationship, while also exploring how these perceptions vary among stakeholders from different European countries. Based on a Principal Component Analysis of 91 Danish, German, Polish, and Spanish value chain stakeholders’ sorting of 28 barrier statements, we extract five shared viewpoints, pointing out the perceived most important barriers: (1) a lack of capacity for end-product production and use; (2) unattractive legume products; (3) governance, institutional and capacity gaps; (4) unfavorable food system conditions; and (5) a restricted domestic raw material production. Cross–country analyses reveal that some viewpoints are widely shared, whereas others are country–specific. Our findings underscore the need for a flexible portfolio of European and national policy measures, such as educational initiatives, institutional support, network development, and coordinated national and regional strategies, to effectively address the value chain barriers currently inhibiting the realization of the full potential of food legumes as a pathway toward a more sustainable European food system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103033"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145975347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-01-14DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103036
Xiaoli Hao , Erxiang Miao , Zhiyang Shen , Yuhong Li , Shuran Wang , Haitao Wu
Against the backdrop of China’s twin objectives to uphold the 1.8 billion mu arable land baseline and alleviate air pollution, this research employs the national pilot for funeral reform as a policy intervention for a natural experiment. The analysis adopts a DID methodology to estimate the causal effects of this reform on two fronts: the multifunctionality of cultivated land and the concentrations of urban air pollutants, specifically carbon monoxide (CO) and sulfur dioxide (SO2). The results indicated that the implementation of funeral reform significantly enhanced the multifunctionality of cultivated land, particularly by improving its production function and living function. These effects were more pronounced in transportation hubs and major grain-producing regions across North, Northeast, East, and Central China. Mechanism analysis demonstrated that these improvements were primarily driven by the expansion of land transfers and the reduction of land fragmentation, which facilitated the development of large-scale agricultural operations. However, a trade-off was identified, where funeral reform significantly increased local air pollution, with average CO concentrations rising by 0.0949 mg/m3 and SO2 concentrations increasing by 3.2490 µg/m3, respectively. This adverse environmental effect was largely attributable to the expansion of cemeteries and funeral home facilities accompanying the reform.
{"title":"Funeral reform, land use, and environmental consequences: evidence from China","authors":"Xiaoli Hao , Erxiang Miao , Zhiyang Shen , Yuhong Li , Shuran Wang , Haitao Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103036","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103036","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Against the backdrop of China’s twin objectives to uphold the 1.8 billion mu arable land baseline and alleviate air pollution, this research employs the national pilot for funeral reform as a policy intervention for a natural experiment. The analysis adopts a DID methodology to estimate the causal effects of this reform on two fronts: the multifunctionality of cultivated land and the concentrations of urban air pollutants, specifically carbon monoxide (CO) and sulfur dioxide (SO<sub>2</sub>). The results indicated that the implementation of funeral reform significantly enhanced the multifunctionality of cultivated land, particularly by improving its production function and living function. These effects were more pronounced in transportation hubs and major grain-producing regions across North, Northeast, East, and Central China. Mechanism analysis demonstrated that these improvements were primarily driven by the expansion of land transfers and the reduction of land fragmentation, which facilitated the development of large-scale agricultural operations. However, a trade-off was identified, where funeral reform significantly increased local air pollution, with average CO concentrations rising by 0.0949 mg/m<sup>3</sup> and SO<sub>2</sub> concentrations increasing by 3.2490 µg/m<sup>3</sup>, respectively. This adverse environmental effect was largely attributable to the expansion of cemeteries and funeral home facilities accompanying the reform.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103036"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145975348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-01-23DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103034
Stefan Hirsch , Ayoub Barissoul , Niklas Möhring , Max Koppenberg
Global policy goals have been set for the expansion of organic farming. However, in most European countries, progress towards this goal is limited, with some organic farmers reverting to conventional production or ceasing production altogether. While various studies have addressed the profitability of organic farming, holistic evidence on the EU level and on farmers’ exit decisions is still lacking. We use a large dataset covering 71% of the EU market to analyze the relationship between dairy farmers’ decision to produce organically and their profitability. Moreover, we investigate the decision of these farmers to exit organic production. Our results reveal that organic farms achieve, on average, a higher profitability. However, the probability of exiting the organic market increases consistently in the years after conversion, peaking in year eight, which reflects difficulties in the transition process. Subsequently, exit probabilities decrease as farms seem to have familiarized themselves with organic production methods and positioned themselves in the sector. Finally, downward fluctuations in profitability and price premiums for organic milk are associated with a higher exit probability. The results show that policy-makers should specifically target the early phase after conversion and provide risk management instruments to support policy targets for organic production.
{"title":"Profitability and exit decisions of organic dairy farmers in the EU","authors":"Stefan Hirsch , Ayoub Barissoul , Niklas Möhring , Max Koppenberg","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103034","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103034","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global policy goals have been set for the expansion of organic farming. However, in most European countries, progress towards this goal is limited, with some organic farmers reverting to conventional production or ceasing production altogether. While various studies have addressed the profitability of organic farming, holistic evidence on the EU level and on farmers’ exit decisions is still lacking. We use a large dataset covering 71% of the EU market to analyze the relationship between dairy farmers’ decision to produce organically and their profitability. Moreover, we investigate the decision of these farmers to exit organic production. Our results reveal that organic farms achieve, on average, a higher profitability. However, the probability of exiting the organic market increases consistently in the years after conversion, peaking in year eight, which reflects difficulties in the transition process. Subsequently, exit probabilities decrease as farms seem to have familiarized themselves with organic production methods and positioned themselves in the sector. Finally, downward fluctuations in profitability and price premiums for organic milk are associated with a higher exit probability. The results show that policy-makers should specifically target the early phase after conversion and provide risk management instruments to support policy targets for organic production.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103034"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146024707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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