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Global warming in a net zero CO2 scenario after 2050 a study with FaIR 2050 年后二氧化碳净零排放情景下的全球变暖与 FaIR 的研究
Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.54254/2753-8818/40/20240199
Tong Wu
Global warming is a severe environmental problem which caused by human activities such as damage to the environmental an overuse of resources. In order to control the global warming under 2C, net zero, especially net zero CO2 has been a goal that must be pursued. The net zero is a goal that all the countries can reduce the emission of greenhouse gases to zero. This article uses FaIR climate model to study the effect of different greenhouse gases on temperature anomaly so that to find the main contributor. The effect of net zero CO2 also be estimated. The model concluded that carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels is the most important contributor to global warming, and zero emissions of CO2 would greatly help mitigate it. In addition, global warming is an inevitable trend, so while reducing CO2 emissions to mitigate the global warming, adaptation to the long-term global warming can also be combined with mitigation.
全球变暖是一个严重的环境问题,由人类活动造成,如破坏环境和过度使用资源。为了将全球变暖控制在 2C 以内,净零排放,尤其是二氧化碳净零排放已成为必须追求的目标。净零排放是指所有国家都能将温室气体排放减少到零。本文使用 FaIR 气候模型来研究不同温室气体对温度异常的影响,从而找到主要的影响因素。此外,还估算了二氧化碳净零排放的影响。模型得出的结论是,化石燃料燃烧产生的二氧化碳是全球变暖的最主要因素,而二氧化碳的零排放将大大有助于缓解全球变暖。此外,全球变暖是不可避免的趋势,因此在减少二氧化碳排放以减缓全球变暖的同时,也可以将适应长期全球变暖与减缓结合起来。
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引用次数: 0
The research on influence factors related to depression in rural zones 农村地区抑郁症相关影响因素研究
Pub Date : 2024-06-06 DOI: 10.54254/2753-8818/39/20240544
Jianing Sun
Depression is famous for its capacity to make devastating impact on peoples physical and mental well-being and sense of happiness. Many researches have tried to identify different factors that function on different groups of people. In this research, the method Binary Logistic Model is used to deal with the data from a study about the life condition of people in rural zones, and was first published online in 2019 and compiled in 2020, with 1429 individuals as its samples. It is concluded that although depression has no connection with sex, marriage, number of children, members in family, gained asset, durable asset, saved asset, living expenses, other expenses, income from salary, income from farm, income from business, income from non-business, income from agriculture, farm expenses, labor primary, lasting investment, non-lasting investment, it has a relatively strong connection with age and education level. This paper focuses on people in rural zones, and concerns 20 factors that cover many aspects of their lives simultaneously, which hopes to help further study of depression.
抑郁症因其能够对人们的身心健康和幸福感造成破坏性影响而闻名于世。许多研究都试图找出影响不同人群的不同因素。在这项研究中,二元逻辑模型方法被用于处理一项关于农村地区人们生活状况的研究数据,该研究于 2019 年首次在网上发表,并于 2020 年完成,共有 1429 个样本。研究结果表明,虽然抑郁与性别、婚姻、子女数量、家庭成员、获得资产、耐用资产、储蓄资产、生活支出、其他支出、工资收入、农业收入、商业收入、非商业收入、农业收入、农业支出、初级劳动力、长期投资、非长期投资没有关系,但与年龄和受教育程度有较强的关系。本文以农村地区居民为研究对象,涉及 20 个因素,同时涵盖了居民生活的多个方面,希望对抑郁症的进一步研究有所帮助。
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引用次数: 0
Insurance company underwriting model against extreme weather 保险公司对极端天气的承保模式
Pub Date : 2024-06-06 DOI: 10.54254/2753-8818/38/20240522
Jiheng Xu
This paper provides a corresponding coping strategy for developing the insurance industry under extreme weather by establishing an insurance company underwriting model. An insurance model (ICU model) for assessing catastrophe risk is proposed based on the results of some international databases and disaster resilience studies. The ICP coefficient is obtained by multiplying the regional vulnerability index with the regional risk index, where our innovatively proposed ARIMA-LSTM coupling algorithm predicts the risk index. The inverse proportionality function of the ICU coefficient is constructed based on the fact that the risk of insurance companies is positively correlated with the regional risk (ICP coefficient) and negatively correlated with the regional purchasing power (CBP coefficient). The CBP coefficients were computed by K-means clustering, and the derived ICP coefficients were used to derive the ICU coefficients for each region. Finally, the coefficients were categorized into three intervals to give the insurance companys coverage model.
本文通过建立保险公司承保模式,为极端天气下保险业的发展提供了相应的应对策略。根据一些国际数据库和抗灾能力研究的结果,提出了一个评估巨灾风险的保险模型(ICU 模型)。我们创新性地提出了 ARIMA-LSTM 耦合算法来预测风险指数,通过区域脆弱性指数与区域风险指数相乘得到 ICP 系数。ICU 系数的反比例函数是根据保险公司的风险与地区风险正相关(ICP 系数)、与地区购买力负相关(CBP 系数)这一事实构建的。CBP 系数是通过 K 均值聚类计算得出的,而得出的 ICP 系数则用于推导每个地区的 ICU 系数。最后,将系数分为三个区间,得出保险公司的承保模式。
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引用次数: 0
Principle and design of vanadium-doped fiber laser under simulation 模拟掺钒光纤激光器的原理和设计
Pub Date : 2024-06-06 DOI: 10.54254/2753-8818/38/20240527
Yulin Wang
Due to the low efficiency of traditional communications and many problems, the development of optical fiber communications is currently necessary. Among them, fiber laser is the core of fiber communication, and the higher the output band of a fiber laser, the more information it carries, and the information that can be transmitted increases accordingly. Therefore, the primary goal is to develop a fiber laser with high-band output. At present, research on high-band output fiber lasers is being carried out at home and abroad. Domestic research focuses on the selection of fiber media; foreign research focuses on random fiber lasers. This article adopts the domestic research route, based on the premise that vanadium ions can emit laser wavelengths that include the L+ band when performing energy level transitions. At the same time, vanadium-doped gallium lanthanum sulfide glass has good functions of absorbing pump light and emitting lasing light. Therefore, this article mainly discusses the design of vanadium-doped fiber lasers using vanadium-doped gallium sulfide as the gain medium under simulation conditions to achieve high-band output of fiber lasers.
由于传统通信效率低、问题多,目前有必要发展光纤通信。其中,光纤激光器是光纤通信的核心,光纤激光器的输出波段越高,承载的信息量就越大,可传输的信息量也相应增加。因此,开发高波段输出的光纤激光器是首要目标。目前,国内外都在开展高波段输出光纤激光器的研究。国内研究的重点是光纤介质的选择;国外研究的重点是随机光纤激光器。本文采用国内的研究路线,其前提是钒离子在进行能级跃迁时可以发射包括 L+ 波段在内的激光波长。同时,掺钒硫化镓镧玻璃具有良好的吸收泵浦光和发射激光的功能。因此,本文主要讨论在仿真条件下以掺钒硫化镓为增益介质设计掺钒光纤激光器,以实现光纤激光器的高波段输出。
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引用次数: 0
Research on the prediction of traffic accident by linear regression 利用线性回归预测交通事故的研究
Pub Date : 2024-06-06 DOI: 10.54254/2753-8818/38/20240546
Yuqing Wang
Traffic accident is getting increasingly serious. Although previous researchers use a variety of methods to predict the traffic accident, there are numerous demerits that need to be improved. This article demonstrates 12 variables that impact the traffic accident with 679 samples of accidents in UK from 2012 to 2014. This paper first analyses the relevance between dependent and independent variables, and also two independent variables to show the correlation between each factor. By using the multiple linear regression, it is concluded that although some independent variables do not have relationship with the dependent variable urban or rural area, Accident Severity, Number of Casualties, Road Type, Speed limit, Junction Control show significant relationship with the dependent variable. The paper also considers the 95% confidence interval in order to compare the effective density of data. Overall, the prediction of traffic accident is based on a number of factors and a sizable sample of accidents to summarize the impact that traffic accidents bring.
交通事故日益严重。尽管之前的研究人员使用了多种方法来预测交通事故,但仍有许多缺点需要改进。本文以 2012 年至 2014 年英国发生的 679 起交通事故为样本,展示了影响交通事故的 12 个变量。本文首先分析了因变量和自变量之间的相关性,同时分析了两个自变量,以显示各因素之间的相关性。通过多元线性回归,本文得出结论:虽然一些自变量与因变量城市或农村地区没有关系,但事故严重程度、伤亡人数、道路类型、限速、路口控制与因变量有显著关系。本文还考虑了 95% 的置信区间,以比较数据的有效密度。总之,交通事故的预测是基于多种因素和相当数量的事故样本,以总结交通事故带来的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Navigating the confluence of econometrics and data science: Implications for economic analysis and policy 驾驭计量经济学与数据科学的融合:对经济分析和政策的影响
Pub Date : 2024-06-06 DOI: 10.54254/2753-8818/38/20240551
Yue Zhao, Wenshuai Liu, Yan Yan, Feiyi Li
This paper explores the transformative integration of econometrics and data science, a synergy poised to redefine empirical research within economics. By merging traditional econometric methods with advanced data science techniques, such as machine learning algorithms and big data analytics, this interdisciplinary approach enables a deeper, more nuanced understanding of complex economic phenomena. We delve into the theoretical foundations underlying this integration, highlighting how machine learning algorithms like random forests and neural networks complement conventional regression analysis, thereby enhancing model complexity and predictive accuracy. The paper further discusses methodological advancements, including handling high-dimensional data, incorporating unstructured data through natural language processing, and the evolution of model selection processes empowered by machine learning. Practical applications are thoroughly examined across three pivotal areas: economic forecasting and policy analysis, financial markets and risk management, and social economic analysis and public policy, showcasing the significant contributions of this convergence to economic forecasting, policy formulation, and the assessment of public interventions. This comprehensive exploration underscores the potential of combining econometrics and data science to offer more precise and actionable insights for policymakers, researchers, and practitioners in the field of economics.
本文探讨了计量经济学与数据科学的变革性融合,这种协同作用有望重新定义经济学中的实证研究。通过将传统计量经济学方法与先进的数据科学技术(如机器学习算法和大数据分析)相结合,这种跨学科方法能够更深入、更细致地理解复杂的经济现象。我们深入探讨了这种整合的理论基础,重点介绍了随机森林和神经网络等机器学习算法如何对传统回归分析进行补充,从而提高模型的复杂性和预测准确性。论文进一步讨论了方法论方面的进步,包括处理高维数据、通过自然语言处理纳入非结构化数据,以及机器学习赋予模型选择过程的演变。本文深入研究了三个关键领域的实际应用:经济预测和政策分析、金融市场和风险管理以及社会经济分析和公共政策,展示了这种融合对经济预测、政策制定和公共干预评估的重大贡献。这一全面探索强调了计量经济学与数据科学相结合的潜力,为经济学领域的政策制定者、研究人员和从业人员提供更精确、更可行的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Leveraging probability and statistical algorithms for enhanced financial risk management 利用概率和统计算法加强金融风险管理
Pub Date : 2024-06-06 DOI: 10.54254/2753-8818/38/20240553
Wenshuai Liu
This paper explores the foundations and applications of quantitative analysis in financial risk management. It examines the pivotal role of probability theory, statistical inference, and advanced algorithms in identifying, quantifying, and mitigating financial risks. Key concepts such as the Normal, Poisson, and Binomial distributions are discussed in the context of risk analysis, alongside statistical inference methods like hypothesis testing and confidence intervals. Furthermore, the paper investigates the application of portfolio optimization models, credit risk evaluation techniques, and market risk assessment methodologies in practical risk management scenarios. Additionally, it addresses the challenges posed by model risk, data quality, and regulatory compliance, emphasizing the need for rigorous validation, robust data governance, and ethical considerations in risk management practices. By integrating sophisticated quantitative techniques with real-world applications, financial institutions can enhance their ability to navigate the complexities of modern financial markets and achieve more effective risk management strategies.
本文探讨了金融风险管理中定量分析的基础和应用。它探讨了概率论、统计推断和高级算法在识别、量化和降低金融风险中的关键作用。在风险分析的背景下讨论了正态分布、泊松分布和二项分布等关键概念,以及假设检验和置信区间等统计推断方法。此外,论文还研究了投资组合优化模型、信用风险评估技术和市场风险评估方法在实际风险管理方案中的应用。此外,论文还探讨了模型风险、数据质量和监管合规带来的挑战,强调了风险管理实践中严格验证、稳健数据管理和道德考量的必要性。通过将复杂的定量技术与实际应用相结合,金融机构可以提高驾驭现代金融市场复杂性的能力,并实现更有效的风险管理策略。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis on the relationship between the Higgs boson and the standard model 希格斯玻色子与标准模型的关系分析
Pub Date : 2024-06-06 DOI: 10.54254/2753-8818/38/20240541
Kecheng Li
In 1964, Peter Higgs proposed the Higgs mechanism, a theory explaining the generation mechanism of the property mass for gauge bosons. After that, physicists proposed many theories and experiments to prove the existence of the Higgs boson. Then in 2013, the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN) discovered the Higgs boson, and in the next ten years, physicists did a large amount of research about the boson, the other possible kinds of Higgs boson, and the pairs of Higgs boson. However, it is hard to prove those theories through experiments mainly due to the large mass of the Higgs boson. In this paper, the author discusses the process of particles getting mass and the significance of the Higgs boson. The history of the Higgs boson and its impact on the world is summarized, and some probable predictions of the future research orientation are proposed by summarizing the past research papers and concluding from those articles. Overall, physicists can do more research on the interactions between the Higgs bosons, whose sensitivity can be used to discover those possible particles in the future.
1964 年,彼得-希格斯提出了希格斯机制,这一理论解释了规规玻色子属性质量的产生机制。此后,物理学家提出了许多理论和实验来证明希格斯玻色子的存在。2013年,欧洲核子研究中心(CERN)发现了希格斯玻色子,此后的十年间,物理学家们对希格斯玻色子、其他可能存在的希格斯玻色子以及希格斯玻色子对进行了大量的研究。然而,主要由于希格斯玻色子的质量很大,很难通过实验来证明这些理论。在本文中,作者讨论了粒子获得质量的过程和希格斯玻色子的意义。本文总结了希格斯玻色子的历史及其对世界的影响,并通过对以往研究论文的归纳和总结,对未来的研究方向提出了一些可能的预测。总之,物理学家可以对希格斯玻色子之间的相互作用做更多的研究,其灵敏度可用于在未来发现那些可能的粒子。
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引用次数: 0
Research on the factors influencing the mental issue of university students 大学生心理问题影响因素研究
Pub Date : 2024-06-06 DOI: 10.54254/2753-8818/38/20240566
Kexin Jiang
In current years, the mental issues of university students have become progressively thoughtful, attracting widespread attention from society. Therefore, studying the elements that influence the mental issues of university students has become an urgent issue, but few scholars have done this work. Therefore, based on the multiple linear regression model, this article quantitatively studies several factors that affect the mental health status of college students, attempting to make a contribution to explaining the causes of mental issues among university students. The empirical study finds that stress level is currently the main factor affecting the mental health status of college students, and a significant positive correlation between this variable and the incidence of mental health problems has been found in the model. Therefore, schools and society must heed the psychological pressure of students, provide reasonable help and psychological counseling when necessary, and college students should also learn how to eliminate their own psychological pressure to prevent the occurrence of mental health problems caused by excessive pressure.
近年来,大学生的心理问题逐渐成为人们关注的焦点,引起了社会的广泛关注。因此,研究影响大学生心理问题的要素已成为一个亟待解决的问题,但很少有学者做这项工作。因此,本文基于多元线性回归模型,定量研究了影响大学生心理健康状况的几个因素,试图为解释大学生心理问题的成因做出贡献。实证研究发现,压力水平是目前影响大学生心理健康状况的主要因素,并且在模型中发现该变量与心理健康问题的发生率之间存在显著的正相关关系。因此,学校和社会要重视大学生的心理压力,在必要时提供合理的帮助和心理辅导,大学生也要学会消除自身的心理压力,防止因压力过大而导致心理健康问题的发生。
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引用次数: 0
Research on the application of CRISPR/Cas9 gene editing technology in traditional Chinese medicine CRISPR/Cas9 基因编辑技术在中药中的应用研究
Pub Date : 2024-03-08 DOI: 10.54254/2753-8818/33/20240931
Yang Hu
Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) is the collective term for the medical practices of all ethnic groups in China (both Han Chinese and ethnic minorities), reflecting the Chinese understanding of life, health, and illness over thousands of years. In addition, traditional herbal medicine has demonstrated its effectiveness in treating complex diseases that have challenged modern Western medicine, such as the use of Artemisia annua extracts to treat malaria, preparations based on traditional Chinese pharmacology to combat large-scale influenza outbreaks, and herbal preparations as an adjunctive therapy to cancer treatment. Currently, the development of traditional Chinese medicine is facing problems such as the loss of prescription knowledge and the degradation of the quality of cultivated species of herbs. This paper uses a literature review to analyze the application of CRISPR/Cas9 gene editing technology in medicinal plants. It also proposes directions that can solve the challenges facing traditional Chinese medicine based on the arrangement of existing literature, and foresees the future application of CRISPR/Cas9 gene editing technology in medicinal plant editing.
传统中医(TCM)是中国各民族(包括汉族和少数民族)医疗实践的总称,反映了中国人几千年来对生命、健康和疾病的理解。此外,传统中草药在治疗复杂疾病方面的疗效也向现代西方医学提出了挑战,如使用青蒿提取物治疗疟疾、基于传统中药药理的制剂用于抗击大规模流感爆发、中草药制剂作为癌症治疗的辅助疗法等。目前,传统中药的发展面临着处方知识流失、栽培药材质量下降等问题。本文通过文献综述,分析了 CRISPR/Cas9 基因编辑技术在药用植物中的应用。在整理现有文献的基础上,提出了解决中药面临挑战的方向,并展望了CRISPR/Cas9基因编辑技术在药用植物编辑中的未来应用。
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引用次数: 0
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Theoretical and Natural Science
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